The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

Assessing allegations of domestic violence in child custody evaluations

There has been an increased focus on child custody evaluations involving domestic violence allegations with much criticism of evaluators' training, practices, and procedures. A national survey of 115 child custody evaluators (doctoral and master's level) was conducted to explore these criticisms. Findings revealed adequate training, multiple sources of data collection, and practices/procedures that closely adhere to child custody guidelines. However, robust, specialized domestic violence instruments, tests, and questionnaires were underutilized. Respondents indicated that findings supporting domestic violence allegations had a substantial impact on their subsequent recommendations. Results are discussed in terms of the importance of assessing domestic violence when conducting custody evaluations and the need for developing practice standards in this domain. Generally, results did not support common criticisms of custody evaluation practice.     

Mechanisms of unexpected death in tuberous sclerosis

Tuberous sclerosis complex is a protean autosomal dominant disorder characterized by multifocal tissue lesions arising from defects in cellular migration, proliferation, and differentiation. It has an association with sudden death. In the current study, review of all cases of sudden death due to tuberous sclerosis was undertaken at the Forensic Science Centre in Adelaide, Australia from 1991 to 2001, in addition to an analysis of cases from the literature. There were two local cases where unexpected death had occurred in individuals with known tuberous sclerosis, involving a 31-year-old male (epilepsy), and a 24-year-old female (massive hemorrhage into a renal angiomyolipoma). Fatal mechanisms in cases of tuberous sclerosis may be associated with underlying cardiovascular, renal and cerebral abnormalities. Sudden death may be due to cardiac arrhythmia, epilepsy, and intra-tumoral hemorrhage with additional complications including cardiac outflow obstruction, obstructive hydrocephalus, aneurysm rupture, and spontaneous pneumothorax. An awareness of the highly variable tissue manifestations of tuberous sclerosis and the mechanisms that may be responsible for death is necessary to establish correctly the diagnosis in occult cases (possibly with molecular confirmation), and to chart accurately organ changes in individuals with established disease.     

Trends in explosive contamination

This study sought to assign a rough order of magnitude for the amount of explosive residue likely to be available in real-world searches for clandestine explosives. A variety of explosives (TNT, TATP, HMX, AN, RDX, PETN) in various forms (powder, flake, detonating cord, plastic) were carefully weighed or cut into containers, and the amount of residue inadvertently remaining on the work area, hands, or containers was quantified. This was used to evaluate the spillage potential of each explosive. The adhesion of each explosive to a glass surface was quantified from amount of explosive adhering to the inside of a glass vial into which the explosive had been placed and then removed by vigorous tapping. In powdered form, most of the explosives--TNT, PETN, RDX, HMX, and TATP--exhibited similar spillage and adhesion to glass. However, PETN as sheet explosive and plasticized RDX (C-4), showed very little potential to contaminate surfaces, either by spillage or adhesion to glass.     

Occupational safety and health in Poland in the 1990s: A regulatory system adapting to societal transformation

The societal transformation underway in Poland createda fundamental challenge to the occupational health and safety system, as the ideological and administrative principles on which it was founded vanished along with the communist-dominated regime. This paper examines the regulatory reform in Poland during the 1990s: its structural elements, implementation record and future prospects. Drawing on five case studies of privatized firms, a mailed questionnaire, and policy and institutional analysis, we find that Poland had considerable success in developing an effective regulatory system for managing occupational health hazards in privatized sector while also achieving considerable socioeconomic progress. The fundamental legitimacy of the regulators and regulatory process, the availability of information about firms and regulatory intents, and the capacity for case-specific decision making, are among the key explanatory factors. The case-specific implementation in Poland is consistent with models advocated by several authors in relation to other industrialized European economies (termed variously as negotiated compliance, tit-for-tat, cooperation-deterrence), despite a uniquely Polish context related to the continuing legacy of the communist era. The study also shows how in Poland a good fit between regulatory institutions and policies on the one hand, and their social context on the other hand, contributes to the effectiveness of the regulatory system.     

Computing Nash Equilibria in Probabilistic, Multiparty Spatial Models with Nonpolicy Components

Although there exist extensive results concerning equilibriain spatial models of two-party elections with probabilisticvoting, we know far less about equilibria in multiparty elections—i.e.,under what conditions will equilibria exist, and what are thecharacteristics of equilibrium configurations? We derive conditionsthat guarantee the existence of a unique Nash equilibrium anddevelop an algorithm to compute that equilibrium inmultipartyelections with probabilistic voting, in which voters chooseaccording to the behaviorists' fully specified multivariatevote model. Previously, such computations could only be approximatedby laborious search methods. The algorithm, which assumes aconditional logit choice function, can be applied to spatialcompetition for a variety of party objectives including vote-maximizationand margin-maximization, and can also encompass alternativevoter policy metrics such as quadratic and linear loss functions.We show that our conditions for an equilibrium are plausiblegiven the empirically-estimated parameters that behavioristsreport for voting behavior in historical elections. We alsoshow that parties' equilibrium positions depend not only onthe distribution of voters' policy preferences but also on theirnonpolicy-related attributes such as partisanship and sociodemographicvariables. Empirical applications to data from a recent Frenchelection illustrate the use of the algorithm and suggest thata unique Nash equilibrium existed in that election.