Dynamic Conditional Correlations in Political Science

Time-varying relationships and volatility are two methodological challenges that are particular to the field of time series. In the case of the former, more comprehensive understanding can emerge when we ask under what circumstances relationships may change. The impact of context—such as the political environment, the state of the economy, the international situation, etc.—is often missing in dynamic analyses that estimate time-invariant parameters. In addition, time-varying volatility presents a number of challenges including threats to inference if left unchecked. Among time-varying parameter models, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model is a creative and useful approach that deals effectively with over-time variation in both the mean and variance of time series. The DCC model allows us to study the evolution of relationships over time in a multivariate setting by relaxing model assumptions and offers researchers a chance to reinvigorate understandings that are tested using time series data. We demonstrate the method's potential in the first example by showing how the importance of subjective evaluations of the economy are not constant, but vary considerably over time as predictors of presidential approval. A second example using international dyadic time series data shows that the story of movement and comovement is incomplete without an understanding of the dynamics of their variance as well as their means.     

A comparison of three shoe sole impression lifting methods at high substrate temperatures

Footwear impressions are a common form of evidence found at crime scenes, and the accurate recovery and recording of such impressions is critical for shoe sole comparison and identification. The lifting of shoe sole impressions from hot surfaces (>30°C/86°F) and in hot environments has received little attention in the literature, particularly in relation to the recovery of class and randomly acquired characteristics (RACs) required for accurate comparisons. This study addressed this knowledge gap by comparing the performance of three common impression lifters (gelatin, adhesive, and vinyl static cling film) at recovering shoe sole impressions in dust from hot flooring substrates. Dry origin dust shoe sole impressions were made on ceramic tile, galvanized metal, and laminated wood flooring using a shoe that possessed two RACs and five class characteristics present on the sole. Substrates were left in direct full sun for five hours during a summer day prior to lifting. Performance was measured by the proportion of RACs and class characteristics visible in each lifted impression. Results demonstrated that the vinyl static cling film tested performed poorly across all substrates, particularly for metal (23.8% marks recovered), including notable shrinkage of the lifted impression. In contrast, adhesive (~96% marks recovered over all substrates), and to a lesser extent gelatin (~85%), lifts were highly successful on hot substrates. These data suggest that adhesive lifts can consistently and accurately recover shoe sole impressions from hot substrates. This study contributes critical information for crime scene examiners to improve and expand evidence recovery in hot environments.     

Can computed tomography replace or supplement autopsy?

Postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) has been integrated into the practice of many forensic pathologists. To evaluate the utility of PMCT in supplementing and/or supplanting medicolegal autopsy, we conducted a prospective double-blind comparison of abnormal findings reported by the autopsy pathologist with those reported by a radiologist reviewing the PMCT. We reviewed 890 cases: 167 with blunt force injury (BFI), 63 with pediatric trauma (under 5 years), 203 firearm injuries, and 457 drug poisoning deaths. Autopsy and radiology reports were coded using the Abbreviated Injury Scale and abnormal findings and cause of death (COD) were compared for congruence in consensus conferences with novel pathologists and radiologists. Overall sensitivity for recognizing abnormal findings was 71% for PMCT and 74.6% for autopsy. Sensitivities for PMCT/autopsy were 74%/73.1% for BFI, 61.5%/71.4% for pediatric trauma, 84.9%/83.7% for firearm injuries, and 56.5%/66.4% for drug poisoning deaths. COD assigned by reviewing PMCT/autopsy was correct in 88%/95.8% of BFI cases, 99%/99.5% of firearm fatalities, 82.5%/98.5% of pediatric trauma deaths, and 84%/100% of drug poisoning deaths of individuals younger than 50. Both autopsy and PMCT were imperfect in recognizing injuries. However, both methods identified the most important findings and are sufficient to establish COD in cases of BFI, pediatric trauma, firearm injuries and drug poisoning in individuals younger than 50. Ideally, all forensic pathologists would have access to a CT scanner and a consulting radiologist. This would allow a flexible approach that meets the diagnostic needs of each case and best serves decedents' families and other stakeholders.     

From Research Evidence to “Evidence by Proxy”? Organizational Enactment of Evidence‐Based Health Care in Four High‐Income Countries

Drawing on multiple qualitative case studies of evidence‐based health care conducted in Sweden, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom, the authors systematically explore the composition, circulation, and role of codified knowledge deployed in the organizational enactment of evidence‐based practice. The article describes the “chain of codified knowledge,” which reflects the institutionalization of evidence‐based practice as organizational business as usual, and shows that it is dominated by performance standards, policies and procedures, and locally collected (improvement and audit) data. These interconnected forms of “evidence by proxy,” which are informed by research partly or indirectly, enable simplification, selective reinforcement, and contextualization of scientific knowledge. The analysis reveals the dual effects of this codification dynamic on evidence‐based practice and highlights the influence of macro‐level ideological, historical, and technological factors on the composition and circulation of codified knowledge in the organizational enactment of evidence‐based health care in different countries.     

An expert-generated tool for assessing policy capacity

“Policy capacity” describes the ability of policy-making systems to do quality work. Better-quality policy work leads to more successful policies. There have been limited attempts to operationalize theoretical understanding of policy capacity, resulting in a lack of shared understanding and assessment metrics. In this Delphi study, health policy experts validated an existing multidimensional conceptual framework for policy capacity. Factors that contribute to policy success were identified and rated to represent aspects of policy capacity, and arranged within the conceptual framework, as were factor indicators. The resulting tool provides expert-generated items for transparently and systematically assessing policy capacity.     

Helen Taylor’s work for land nationalisation in Great Britain and Ireland 1879–1907: women’s political agency in the British Victorian land movement

This article explores the contribution made by Helen Taylor to the Victorian land reform movement, 1879–1890. It concentrates on her political agency after 1882 to evidence that the importance of Taylor was three-fold. She was a leading activist in all land reforming groups and drew large audiences; she had independent means which enabled her to fund the organisations she was involved in and exert influence on them; and her background as John Stuart Mill’s step-daughter and intellectual collaborator put her in the position of being able to introduce the leading players in the 1880s land campaigns to one another. Taylor introduced Henry George and Michael Davitt to the leadership of the British land movement and thus enabled their involvement. Davitt’s and George’s importance in British land campaigns has been documented by historians but the woman who was instrumental in facilitating their involvement has been largely forgotten.     

Technology assessment in Australia: the case for a formal agency to improve advice to policy makers

The pace and reach of technological change has led to calls for better technology policy and governance to improve social outcomes. Technology assessment can provide information and processes to improve technology policy. Having conducted a review of international best practice, we established a set of quality criteria for TA. In effect, good technology assessments are systematic, broad, inclusive and well resourced and are conducted by organisations that are trustworthy and influential. Although not having a formal TA agency, Australia does have a number of recent examples of TA-like activities in the form of ad hoc processes (such as reviews and inquiries) and within other organisations. Drawing on reports, commentaries, discussions and our observations as participants, we have assessed these activities and processes against our quality criteria. Our findings indicate that TA capacity in Australia is fragmented, uncoordinated and variable in quality and impact. We conclude that a formal TA agency could improve Australian technology policy and capacity for technology governance that would be more in line with other nations, notably in Europe.