The Impact of Petition Signing on Voter Turnout

Generally speaking, campaign-related contact motivates voters. One form of such contact not much explored in the voter mobilization literature is the petitioning for ballot initiatives that occurs with considerable frequency in about half the states and even more localities. Using newly-available data that allow us to match individual petition signers with their subsequent election behavior, we explore the role of having had a hand in a ballot measure’s qualifying stage in propelling individual voters to the polls. Specifically, we perform multivariate analysis on a random sample of 1,000 registered Arkansas voters, 1,100 registered Florida voters, and all 71,119 registered voters in Gainesville, Florida to measure the influence of petition-signing in spurring voter turnout. We find marginal effects in the statewide samples, but substantial and significant turnout effects in the Gainesville municipal election—an off-cycle, low-profile election. Furthermore, the effect of petition-signing—across all of our samples—is strongest among irregular, as compared to habitual, voters. These findings are in keeping with recent campaign mobilization experimental research and comport with previous findings on the “educative effects” of ballot measures on voter turnout.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual,Methodological and Policy Issues,and Selected Empirical Findings

Abstract

Global integration has increased the international linkages of financial markets for emerging market countries. A key channel for the international transmission of inflation and economic cycles is from exchange rate movements to domestic prices, known as exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). This article reviews the conceptual, methodological and policy issues connected with ERPT in emerging market and developing countries, and critically surveys selected empirical studies. A key contribution is to categorise and compare the heterogeneous methodologies used to extract ERPT measures in the empirical literature. Single equation models and systems methods are contrasted; frequent misspecifications that produce unreliable ERPT estimates are highlighted. The discerning policy-maker needs to ascertain by which methods ERPT measures were calculated, the controls and restrictions applied, and the time frame and stability of the estimates.     

The Rate of Cyber Dating Abuse Among Teens and How It Relates to Other Forms of Teen Dating Violence

To date, little research has documented how teens might misuse technology to harass, control, and abuse their dating partners. This study examined the extent of cyber dating abuse—abuse via technology and new media—in youth relationships and how it relates to other forms of teen dating violence. A total of 5,647 youth from ten schools in three northeastern states participated in the survey, of which 3,745 reported currently being in a dating relationship or having been in one during the prior year (52 % were female; 74 % White). Just over a quarter of youth in a current or recent relationship said that they experienced some form of cyber dating abuse victimization in the prior year, with females reporting more cyber dating abuse victimization than males (particularly sexual cyber dating abuse). One out of ten youth said that they had perpetrated cyber dating abuse, with females reporting greater levels of non-sexual cyber dating abuse perpetration than males; by contrast, male youth were significantly more likely to report perpetrating sexual cyber dating abuse. Victims of sexual cyber dating abuse were seven times more likely to have also experienced sexual coercion (55 vs. 8 %) than were non-victims, and perpetrators of sexual cyber dating abuse were 17 times more likely to have also perpetrated sexual coercion (34 vs. 2 %) than were non-perpetrators. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

Longitudinal Disparities of Hazardous Drinking Between Sexual Minority and Heterosexual Individuals from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Sexual minority (lesbian and gay, bisexual, mostly heterosexual) individuals are at an increased risk for hazardous drinking than heterosexual individuals, but little is known about the nature of the disparities as adolescents reach adulthood. We used four waves of a nationally representative data set, the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), to examine disparities of hazardous drinking outcomes between sexual minority and heterosexual men and women from adolescence to young adulthood. Participants were 14–18 years old at the first assessment (N = 12,379; 53 % female) and 27–31 years old at the fourth assessment. At the fourth assessment, 13 % self-identified as sexual minority individuals, 16 % were Hispanic, and 36 % were of minority race, including primarily African Americans (60 %) and Asian Americans (18 %). There were clear hazardous drinking disparities between sexual minority individuals and heterosexual individuals over time. During adolescence, sexual minority individuals, particularly females, reported higher levels of hazardous drinking. As study participants reached adulthood, the magnitude of the hazardous drinking disparities increased among sexual minorities, sexual minority men in particular. Additional research is needed to better understand the developmental mechanisms that underlie the emerging sexual orientation related disparities of hazardous drinking in young adulthood.     

Courting Custom: Regulating Access to Justice in Rural South Africa and Malawi

The continued relevance of customary law for the regulation of the daily lives of Africa's citizens poses serious governance challenges to sovereign states, such as how best to regulate customary dispute settlement. While confronted with largely similar problems, the South African government proposed to enhance and regulate the position of its traditional courts, whereas Malawi has opted for the creation of hybrid local courts that combine characteristics of regular state courts and customary fora to be the main avenue of customary law cases. This paper analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches and displays how the two countries’ historical and political contexts enable and constrain their regulatory choices in the field of customary dispute settlement, as well as influence the risk and benefits of the various options. In this respect, the political power of the traditional leaders is a significant determinant.     

Public Sector Reform

Reform is never far from the centre of public administration practice and scholarship. In this article Doug McTaggart, the chairman of the Queensland Public Service Commission, and Janine O'Flynn, from the University of Melbourne, explore the challenges of reform and the state of play. McTaggart, who was a commissioner on the Queensland Commission of Audit, sets out the case that business as usual will no longer suffice given the range of challenges faced by governments. He sets out to explain how we ended up in our current state and what needs to happen to repair it, drawing on deep experience in the practice of reform. O'Flynn positions reform as one of the central questions in public administration and management and makes the case for rethinking reform conceptually to drive change in practice. In doing so she points to our weaknesses in determining whether reform fails or succeeds and makes the case that, until we rethink reform, business as usual might be all we end up with. McTaggart and O'Flynn bring together the expertise of practice and academia to bring new insights in this persistent challenge of public administration, and raise a series of questions for debate.     

U.S. Foreign Aid and Foreign Policy: Building Strong Relationships by Doing It Right!

Foreign aid policies cannot be more successful than their implementation, which inherently involves people and institutions. But people have their own interests and cultural frameworks, and institutions are inevitably grounded in culture and politics. Inattention to the agendas of individuals involved on both sides of foreign aid to Central and Eastern Europe played a major role in its shortcomings. A recent court decision holding two Harvard university scholars guilty of defrauding the U.S. government while running a flagship project to reform the Russian economy underscores the pitfalls in outsourcing traditional functions of government to small, well-connected groups that are not fully accountable in serving the public interest. Drawing on the author's experience studying informal systems and networks over several decades, this article illuminates the importance of foreign policy and aid relationships—how they are set up, who wins and who loses, and how their lack of accountability can contribute to the derailment of nation-building and constructive relations among countries.