Judicial Selection: Politics,Biases, and Constituency Demands

The determinants of recent U.S. districtcourt judges and appellate court judgesselection have been subject of much debate,but little systematic evidence has beenpresented to substantiate claims regardingdiscrimination against particular groups ofjudicial nominees, nor regarding the lengthof the appointment process. We study boththe length of the nominations process, andthe likelihood of confirmation andemphasize the role of Senatorial seniorityand agenda control in the confirmationsprocess. We find that Senators with agendacontrol have a positive effect on the speedand likelihood of confirmation and thatnominees from states with comparativelysenior Senators receive expedited treatmentrelative to other nominees. Althoughpolitics matter in the confirmationprocess, Senators are responsive to aperceived ``shortage'' of judges, since theyfill seats faster when a relatively largenumber of court seats are vacant. Nomineeswith higher personal qualifications arealso more likely to experience success inconfirmations. We found no evidence ofgender or race discrimination on the partof the Senate.     

THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL VALIDITY OF THE REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGN: A META‐ANALYSIS OF 15 WITHIN‐STUDY COMPARISONS

Theory predicts that regression discontinuity (RD) provides valid causal inference at the cutoff score that determines treatment assignment. One purpose of this paper is to test RD's internal validity across 15 studies. Each of them assesses the correspondence between causal estimates from an RD study and a randomized control trial (RCT) when the estimates are made at the same cutoff point where they should not differ asymptotically. However, statistical error, imperfect design implementation, and a plethora of different possible analysis options, mean that they might nonetheless differ. We test whether they do, assuming that the bias potential is greater with RDs than RCTs. A second purpose of this paper is to investigate the external validity of RD by exploring how the size of the bias estimates varies across the 15 studies, for they differ in their settings, interventions, analyses, and implementation details. Both Bayesian and frequentist meta‐analysis methods show that the RD bias is below 0.01 standard deviations on average, indicating RD's high internal validity. When the study‐specific estimates are shrunken to capitalize on the information the other studies provide, all the RD causal estimates fall within 0.07 standard deviations of their RCT counterparts, now indicating high external validity. With unshrunken estimates, the mean RD bias is still essentially zero, but the distribution of RD bias estimates is less tight, especially with smaller samples and when parametric RD analyses are used.     

Course corrections and failed rationales: how comparative advantage and debt are used to legitimise austerity in Africa and Latin America

This article examines the role of ideological mechanisms in support of long-term economic liberalisation. Specifically we examine the ideological roles of comparative advantage and debt reduction as precursors to austerity policy imposition. Austerity policies, as episodic mechanisms designed to deepen neoliberalisation, are examined in the comparative historical context of Africa and Latin America.     

“An Inherited Money Dude from Queens County”: How Unseen Candidate Characteristics Affect Voter Perceptions

Political Behavior - We examine the effect of biographical knowledge on voters’ assessments of leaders. Prior research has shown that voters infer traits from candidate characteristics such...     

Generating a Corpus of Mobile Forensic Images for Masquerading user Experimentation

The Periodic Mobile Forensics (PMF) system investigates user behavior on mobile devices. It applies forensic techniques to an enterprise mobile infrastructure, utilizing an on‐device agent named TractorBeam. The agent collects changed storage locations for later acquisition, reconstruction, and analysis. TractorBeam provides its data to an enterprise infrastructure that consists of a cloud‐based queuing service, relational database, and analytical framework for running forensic processes. During a 3‐month experiment with Purdue University, TractorBeam was utilized in a simulated operational setting across 34 users to evaluate techniques to identify masquerading users (i.e., users other than the intended device user). The research team surmises that all masqueraders are undesirable to an enterprise, even when a masquerader lacks malicious intent. The PMF system reconstructed 821 forensic images, extracted one million audit events, and accurately detected masqueraders. Evaluation revealed that developed methods reduced storage requirements 50‐fold. This paper describes the PMF architecture, performance of TractorBeam throughout the protocol, and results of the masquerading user analysis.