Why Assessing Estimative Accuracy is Feasible and Desirable

The US Intelligence Community (IC) has been heavily criticized for making inaccurate estimates. Many scholars and officials believe that these criticisms reflect inappropriate generalizations from a handful of cases, thus producing undue cynicism about the IC's capabilities. Yet there is currently no way to evaluate this claim, because the IC does not systematically assess the accuracy of its estimates. Many scholars and practitioners justify this state of affairs by claiming that assessing estimative accuracy would be impossible, unwise, or both. This article shows how those arguments are generally unfounded. Assessing estimative accuracy is feasible and desirable. This would not require altering existing tradecraft and it would address several political and institutional problems that the IC faces today.     

The 2017 election in Kenya: reimagining the past or introducing the future?

The new 2010 Kenya Constitution introduced a devolved system of government that has radically transformed the Kenyan polity. The political elite which operated primarily at the national level now encounters a new competitive political arena with the introduction of county governments under devolution. In particular, a new post of County Governor has surpassed in power calculations both the traditional MP and the new position of senator. In the 2013 elections, the focus was on the national arena; in 2017, all this will change.     

Security development and the Palestinian Authority: an examination of the ‘Canadian factor’

The Palestinian Authority has become a major recipient of development assistance with a primary area of focus on the development of security capacities. As a case study in the securitisation of aid, this article demonstrates how Canadian development aid has been almost exclusively aimed towards areas of security enhancements. Detailing what Canadian security development actors call ‘the Canadian factor’, the article argues that the securitisation of aid is a mobilisation of security expertise to advance the strategic interests of major donors. In detailing the donors as beneficiaries of aid, the article describes how the ‘success story’ of development aid in Palestine is a reflection of how security aid functions to advance the interests of donors as opposed to populations under the recipient authorities.     

Fluorescence Imaging of Posterior Spiracles from Second and Third Instars of Forensically Important Chrysomya rufifacies (Diptera: Calliphoridae),

Entomological protocols for aging blowfly (Diptera: Calliphoridae) larvae to estimate the time of colonization (TOC) are commonly used to assist in death investigations. While the methodologies for analyzing fly larvae differ, most rely on light microscopy, genetic analysis, or, more rarely, electron microscopy. This pilot study sought to improve resolution of larval stage in the forensically important blowfly Chrysomya rufifacies using high‐content fluorescence microscopy and biochemical measures of developmental marker proteins. We established fixation and mounting protocols, defined a set of measurable morphometric criteria and captured developmental transitions of 2nd instar to 3rd instar using both fluorescence microscopy and anti‐ecdysone receptor Western blot analysis. The data show that these instars can be distinguished on the basis of robust, nonbleaching, autofluorescence of larval posterior spiracles. High‐content imaging techniques using confocal microscopy, combined with morphometric and biochemical techniques, may therefore aid forensic entomologists in estimating TOC.     

Desistance and Legitimacy: The Impact of Offender Notification Meetings on Recidivism among High Risk Offenders

Legitimacy-based approaches to crime prevention assume that individuals will comply with the law when they believe that the law and its agents are legitimate and act in ways that are “fair” and “just.” Currently, legitimacy-based programs are shown to lower aggregate levels of crime; yet, no study has investigated whether such programs influence individual offending. Using quasi-experimental design and survival analyses, this study evaluates the effectiveness of one such program—Chicago’s Project Safe Neighborhoods’ (PSN) Offender Notification Forums—at reducing individual recidivism among a population of returning prisoners. Results suggest that involvement in PSN significantly reduces the risk of subsequent incarceration and is associated with significantly longer intervals that offenders remain on the street and out of prison. As the first study to provide individual-level evidence promoting legitimacy-based interventions on patterns of individual offending, out study suggests these interventions can and do reduce rates of recidivism.     

Gender Differences in Acquisitive Delinquency: A Macro-Level Routine Activities Analysis

This study examines macro-level variation in juvenile theft and burglary arrest rates using a sample of 127 large cities in the United States. Independent variables were drawn from routine activities theory and included measures of guardianship (e.g., portion of families with both parents working, police to resident ratio, etc.), the number of motivated offenders (e.g., portion of the population under age 18), and the availability of suitable targets (e.g., poverty rates). Both ordinary least squares and weighted least squares regression analyses were performed. These analyses found that the significant predictors varied between burglary and theft. Additionally, there were differences in the predictors which significantly affected the arrest rates of male and female juveniles. However, within each offense the models explained similar portions of the overall variation in arrests for both genders.     

The Relationship Between Child Maltreatment,Intimate Partner Violence Exposure,and Academic Performance

This article presents a longitudinal examination of the association between children's experiences of child maltreatment (CM) and intimate partner violence (IPV), alone and in combination, with children's academic performance. Integrated, administrative data from the Minnesota Departments of Education and Human Services were used to obtain a sample of 2,914 children. Data provided an opportunity to study comparisons of single (CM or IPV) and combined experiences (CM-IPV), longitudinally observe the impact of these experiences on academic functioning, and make comparisons to the general population. Results revealed significant differences in school attendance and math and reading performance by adverse experience. Children exposed to CM and IPV, individually or in combination, underperformed at school. IPV-exposed children had the poorest outcomes. Findings highlight the need for dedicated screening for adverse childhood experiences, particularly IPV exposure, and devoting greater educational and social service resources as a means of promoting future school achievement and adult functioning.     

Candidate status, presidential approval, and voting for US senator

This research tests whether the effects of assessments of presidential performance on the senate voting decision are largest for out-party incumbents and smaller for out-party incumbents and candidates in open-seat contests, a pattern suggested by the restricted in-party culpability thesis. Analysis of data from the 1988–1990–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study reveals that the effects of appraisals of presidential performance are greatest in open-seat contests and those with in-party incumbents, contrary to the restricted in-party culpability thesis. For incumbents of the out-party and candidates in open-seat contests, the effects of assessments of presidential performance are principally a function of the competitiveness of the contest. Assessments of presidential performance shape the voting decision in contests with in-party incumbents regardless of the level of electoral competitiveness.     

Voters and coalition governments

Coalition governments are the norm in parliamentary democracies. Yet, despite the predominance of this type of government, political scientists have only recently started to investigate how voters approach elections when a coalition government is the likely outcome. Such elections present additional uncertainty and complexity for voters compared with elections in plurality systems, where party choice translates more directly into a choice of government. These factors have lead to the assumption that strategic voting is unlikely to occur in systems that produce coalition governments. In this introductory article to the special issue on Voters and Coalition Governments, we consider whether voters have the capacity to anticipate specific coalition outcomes and propose a framework for understanding the conditions that lead to strategic voting in both plurality and proportional systems.