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Jeffrey Pugh 《Negotiation Journal》2009,25(1):83-105
During more than a decade of violent conflict (1980–1992) involving the military, rebel forces, and paramilitary "death squads," El Salvador suffered some 75,000 casualties, mostly civilians. After three years of negotiations, the government and the largest rebel group signed a historic comprehensive peace accord that brought an end to the war and instituted wide-reaching political and social reforms. This agreement, and the peace process that produced it, has been widely hailed as a successful example of a negotiated end to civil war. In order to understand the conditions that led to the 1992 Chapultepec Peace Accords ending the war, this article tests ripeness theory in the context of the Salvadoran peace process.
This article affirms the validity of theories of ripeness and the mutually hurting stalemate as structural explanations for the initiation of dialogue and notes the role of "indicators of ripeness" in forcing the parties to recognize a hurting stalemate that may already exist. It also proposes several hypothesized explanations for the effectiveness of the Salvadoran negotiations themselves. These explanations include the presence of strong, empowered policy entrepreneurs on both sides with the political will and capability to make credible commitments; the combination of internal and external pressure for a negotiated solution that raised the cost of defection; and the active involvement, based on consent of both parties, of a neutral, empowered, and credible mediator who provided both technical assistance and vigilance to move the process forward. After analyzing the Salvadoran case through this theoretical lens, the article applies the same concepts to contemporary conflict cases such as Iraq and Colombia, discussing how the lessons learned in El Salvador do and do not provide instructive guidance for managing civil conflicts today. 相似文献
This article affirms the validity of theories of ripeness and the mutually hurting stalemate as structural explanations for the initiation of dialogue and notes the role of "indicators of ripeness" in forcing the parties to recognize a hurting stalemate that may already exist. It also proposes several hypothesized explanations for the effectiveness of the Salvadoran negotiations themselves. These explanations include the presence of strong, empowered policy entrepreneurs on both sides with the political will and capability to make credible commitments; the combination of internal and external pressure for a negotiated solution that raised the cost of defection; and the active involvement, based on consent of both parties, of a neutral, empowered, and credible mediator who provided both technical assistance and vigilance to move the process forward. After analyzing the Salvadoran case through this theoretical lens, the article applies the same concepts to contemporary conflict cases such as Iraq and Colombia, discussing how the lessons learned in El Salvador do and do not provide instructive guidance for managing civil conflicts today. 相似文献
904.
Meca Alan Allison Kelsie Kubilus Richie Olthuis Janine V. Merrill Jennifer E. Zamboanga Byron L. Wyrick David Milroy Jeffrey J. Carr Kyla 《Journal of youth and adolescence》2021,50(12):2363-2373
Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Although prior studies have indicated athletic identity plays a role in alcohol use among college athletes, this research has largely drawn on a unidimensional... 相似文献
905.
Jeffrey B. Nugent 《Studies in Comparative International Development (SCID)》2008,43(2):206-217
Applications of institutional analysis to the explanation of economic performance come in many flavors. Some economists have
made use of an economics-oriented flavor in treating culture as one component of that analysis. Steven Heydemann uses a more
political flavor of institutional analysis to argue that two of these economists, Douglass North and Avner Greif, have overly
simplified and homogenized the concept of culture and the way in which it affects economic performance. He goes on to identify
several instances in both the economic history and contemporary experience of the Middle East where he claims that such over-simplification
has led to shortcomings in the analysis. This paper suggests that while some of Heydemann’s claims have merit, several others
are exaggerated.
Jeffrey B. Nugent is professor of economics at the University of Southern California. He specializes in development economics and, within that field, focuses on diverse applications of both quantitative analysis and institutional analysis to various developing countries. 相似文献
Jeffrey B. NugentEmail: |
Jeffrey B. Nugent is professor of economics at the University of Southern California. He specializes in development economics and, within that field, focuses on diverse applications of both quantitative analysis and institutional analysis to various developing countries. 相似文献
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This paper explores the policing of a traditional wholesale fruit market located in a densely populated neighborhood of urban Hong Kong. Based on ethnographic and historical research, we outline the political arrangements that govern the discretionary arrangements of police power at the market. A historically developed system maintains an informal status quo against various pressures to change. We identify crucial features in the contemporary policing system that emerge from a fusion between the democratic ethos of community policing ideals and non-democratic aspects of local administration in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. These features of this historically developed mode of order-maintenance, we suggest, might be seen as broadly characteristic of a “Hong Kong style” community policing. 相似文献
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909.
Jeffrey Lin 《Justice Quarterly》2018,35(5):895-918
This study assesses the effectiveness of an evidence-based counseling strategy employed by Colorado parole officers called Motivational Interviewing (MI), which aims to reduce parolee recidivism. I employ a quasi-experimental research design in which the caseloads of MI-trained officers are divided into two sub-samples: parolees supervised before the achievement of MI certification and parolees supervised after certification. Regression analyses show that MI is associated with recidivism reduction, but this relationship would not have been revealed without accounting for a high-profile crime that interrupted the study period—the murder of the Executive Director of the Colorado Department of Corrections by a high-risk parolee that had absconded from supervision. This crime caused a public relations crisis for the parole agency, which responded by lowering tolerance for misconduct. This reduction in tolerance increased recidivism rates among parolees in Colorado, obscuring the effect of MI on parole outcomes. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed. 相似文献
910.
This study continues previous work documenting the structure of violence perpetrated by males against their female intimate partners. It assesses the construct validity of a measurement model depicting associations among eight subtypes of perpetration: moderate physical violence, severe physical violence, forced or coerced sexual violence, sexual violence where consent was not possible, emotional/verbal psychological abuse, dominance/isolation psychological abuse, interactional contacts/surveillance related stalking, and stalking involving mediated contacts. Data were obtained from a sample of 340 men arrested for physical assault of a female spouse or partner, and court ordered into batterer intervention programs. Men were surveyed before starting the intervention. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) supported the validity of model as evidenced by good model to data fit and satisfaction of requirements for fit statistics. In addition, the eight factor solution was characterized by a slightly better model to data fit than a four factor higher order solution described in the author's previous work. Latent variable correlations across the broader categories of intimate partner violence (IPV) revealed that the violence subtypes were mostly moderately positively correlated and ranged from .381 (emotional/verbal psychological abuse with interactional contacts/surveillance related stalking) to .795 (dominance/isolation psychological with abuse with forced sex). Future studies should determine whether there are distinct risk factors and health outcomes associated with each of the eight IPV perpetration subtypes and identify possible patterns of co-occurrence. 相似文献