The persuasive power of a Committee Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC

This paper investigates persuasion as a means of influence for the Federal Reserve Chairman in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Using textual records of FOMC meetings, federal funds rate targets have been recorded for Committee members who served in the Arthur Burns era (1970–1978). Results show that Burns-member differences in stated funds rate targets were lower when Burns made recommendations early in the meeting, consistent with the hypothesis that the Chairman is persuasive. Additional results show that members’ tendencies to respond to Burns's recommendations were related to their personal and political loyalties.     

Virtual regionalism,regional structures and regime security in Central Asia

The failures of regionalism and regional structures for cooperation between the five CIS Central Asian states are well studied. However, explanations so far do not convincingly account for the apparent enthusiasm of these states for the macro-regional frameworks of the Eurasian Economic Community, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This article argues that, as with previous efforts at Central Asian regional self-organization, these broader organizations still largely represent a form of ‘virtual regionalism’. But for the Central Asian states they offer a new and increasingly important function, that of ‘protective integration’. This takes the form of collective political solidarity or ‘bandwagoning’ with Russia (and China in the SCO) against processes and pressures that are perceived as challenging incumbent leaders and their political entourage. A primary motivation for Central Asian leaders' engagement in the EAEC, CSTO and SCO, therefore, is the reinforcement of domestic regime security and the resistance of ‘external’ agendas of good governance or democracy promotion. These goals are concealed behind a discourse that denigrates the imposition of external ‘values’ and continues to give pride of place to national sovereignty. This offers little to overcome the underlying fractures between states in Central Asia.     

Low-level Radioactive Waste Compacts: Lessons Learned from Theory and Practice

The interstate compact as a policy tool has a long history ofuse in the United States. Yet some observers feel that interstatecompacts have never lived up to their potential. Nevertheless,in 1980, the compact was chosen as the policy instrument tosolve one of the thorniest environmental policy issues of thedecade: the siting of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposalfacilities. Drawing from research on interstate compacts andon alliance theory developed in international relations, thisarticle applies five key questions to the case of LLRW: Whydo states join compacts? Which compacts will they join? Howstable are the compacts? How important are outside factors?What types of situations are compacts most suited to address?It concludes with lessons that should be useful to future policymakersabout the use of interstate compacts to solve salient, nationwidepolicy problems.     

Market-based incentives and residential municipal solid waste

Coalitions of free-marketeers, politicians, and environmentalists increasingly are turning to the use of market-based incentives in formulating environmental policy. One promising application of market-based incentives is in the management of residential municipal solid waste. This article focuses on unit-based pricing programs established in conjunction with community recycling programs. Using data gathered through telephone and mail surveys of 21 cities, we demonstrate the strong potential for unit pricing to improve the efficiency of residential solid waste management.     

Adolescence terminable and interminable: When does adolescence end?

The question of when adolescence ends and young adulthood begins is considered. Throughout, it is addressed in terms of the theory of broad and narrow socialization, which emphasizes the cultural context of development. The question is approached from cognitive, emotional, and behavioral perspectives, then from the perspective of role transitions (such as marriage and parenthood). The idea of an extended path from adolescence to adulthood is discussed, and the concept of emerging adulthood is presented. It is suggested that in most non-Western cultures the entrance to adulthood is socially defined and marked by a social event, usually marriage. In the contemporary West, however, where there is a strong emphasis on independence and individualism, the entrance to adulthood is defined and marked individually. Consequently, it is likely to be based on the achievement of residential and financial independence as well as on the attainment of cognitive self-sufficiency, emotional self-reliance, and behavioral self-control. Thus in the contemporary West the passage from adolescence to young adulthood is a process that is gradual and may take many years.This research was funded partly by an institutional training grant from the National Institute of Mental Health 5T32 MH14668-14, for the Clinical Research Training Program in Adolescence, jointly sponsored by the Department of Psychiatry at Northwestern University and the Committee on Human Development at the University of Chicago.Received Ph.D. from University of Virginia, Research interests include adolescent reckless behavior, adolescents' uses of media, and the transition to adulthood.Research interests include the transition to adulthood and development in young adulthood.     

The President's Fiscal Year 1992 Budget: Almost Quiet on the Budgetary Front

The Fiscal Year 1992 Budget was prepared under unusual conditions. The Persian Gulf War, the piesident's disinterest in domestic issues, the bitter debate over the fiscal year 1991 budget, and the upcoming re-apportionment all combined to make this year atypical The result is a document in which the most substantial change is the cover—a patriotic red, white, and blue Inside, it uses the "one book" format of fiscal year 1991 The budget examines different interpretations of the budget deficit, implements major changes in budgetary accounting, and outlines assumptions made in preparing the budget. Overall, the budget document consolidates the gains made in 1990     

Toward the formation of a partisan alignment in France

This article investigates the extent to which and the ways in which a basic partisan alignment appeared to be forming in France between 1958 and 1988. During that period, the incidence of party identification rose from abnormally low to normal levels, and the composition of the alignment evolved from indeterminacy, through a left-right standoff, to Socialist party predominance. The basic question asked is how a partisan alignment is createdin the first place. The main elements of the answer suggested are by simplifying, clarifying, and stabilizing the terms of electoral choice. This process is traced closely, with special reference to the incidence of PI and the composition of the alignment by age in 1988, and including a comparison between France in 1968 and the U.S. in 1932. Finally, the fragility of the 1988 alignment is underscored. Comparatively new and shaped mainly by the partisan identifications of the younger citizens, the 1988 alignment was vulnerable to any weakening of the conditions that contributed to creating it. The party with the most to lose was the Socialist party, which had gained the most while the party system stabilized and the incidence of party identification rose.This is a revised version of a paper that was originally presented at the 1991 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C.     

Partisanship and the party system

The defining properties of party identification long established for the United States fail with some frequency to be replicated in electoral systems abroad. A number of plausible suggestions have been made to account for this system-level variability: Most of these have some face merit, but none taken alone is adequate to provide a full cross-system explanation. Variation in party system size or fractionalization has recently been discussed as another source of differential dynamics of party loyalties. Unfortunately, the conventional means of assessing party identification properties are subject to rather severe artifacts, typically ignored, when comparisons are made across systems of very different party size. The conceptual stakes underlying key methods options for such comparisons—most notably, between continuous and discrete statistical tools—are examined. The use of continuous statistics for systems of very multiple parties rests on an assumption that voters do in some degree regard these party systems as imbedded in a continuous space. A simple test for this assumption is mounted in four systems and unsurprisingly it shows very clear support. Analysis of residuals beyond this obvious result add several points of less obvious information about the distribution of party affect in such systems.