State Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity

This paper employs panel estimators with data on the 50 American states for the years 1963 to 2006 to test the relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) trust fund solvency and UI benefit generosity. We find that both average and maximum weekly UI benefit amounts, as ratios to the average weekly wage, are higher in states and in years with more highly solvent trust funds. This result holds after controlling for state‐level unemployment rate, gross domestic product, population growth, legislative political ideology, partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and gubernatorial election year across multiple specifications, including fixed‐effects and dynamic panel estimators. We propose a theory of moderate coupling as the causal mechanism, whereby UI program benefits and financing are directly related but are not as tightly linked as in other social insurance programs, such as Medicaid. The findings have important policy implications for the funding of states’ UI systems. As a consequence of moderate coupling, the countercyclicality of the UI program is dampened.     

Religion,Secularization and Democracy in the Mediterranean Region: Problems and Prospects

Political debates in many Mediterranean countries today are increasingly framed in dichotomous terms, highlighting divisions between religious and secular worldviews. In some countries, for example Israel, the issue is so contentious that it is described as a ‘culture war’. While Israel struggles to balance its commitment to a Jewish state and a democracy, it does not seem to matter if the countries in question are democracies or non-democracies, or what their majority religious faith is. Instead, the role of religion in public life or, put another way, the ‘public return of religion’, is a pertinent and controversial political question everywhere in the Mediterranean region. How do we explain this phenomenon? On the one hand, we can point to both economic and demographic changes, while, on the other, we can trace the impact of continuing secularisation. Together these two sets of developments produce new challenges to existing political arrangements.     

Domestic credit and the balance of payments in Ghana: A comment

This article provides evidence from a randomised control trial conducted among potato farmers in Ecuador about the impact of mobile phone text messages on farmer knowledge about and adoption of integrated pest management (IPM) practices. Using psychological constructs, we examine competing explanations for non-standard decision-making leading to low adoption of beneficial agricultural technologies. Farmers who received text messages have significantly higher knowledge and are more likely to adopt most IPM practices than those in the control group. Findings provide evidence that text messages lead to behavioural changes by reducing inattention and sub-optimal heuristics in the face of complex decisions.     

Evidence of Behavioural Compensation in Internal Replication Study of Male Circumcision Trial to Reduce HIV Acquisition in Kisumu,Kenya

We replicated the study ‘Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya: a randomised controlled trial’ using an epidemiological approach as well as an econometric approach. Both approaches confirmed the 60 per cent protective effect of circumcision reported in the original paper. Similar to the original paper, we found no evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects by age. Contrary to the original study, we found evidence of risk compensation, with circumcised men less likely to stay abstinent (odds ratio 0.79 [95% CI: 0.64, 0.99]) and more likely to have had unprotected intercourse (OR 1.2 [1.1, 1.4]). These findings reinforce the impact of circumcision but highlight behavioural risk.     

Seasonality,differential access and interlinking of labour and credit

This article explains the interlinking of rural labour and credit transactions in terms of differential access to credit markets and seasonality. A model is developed which incorporates not only seasonality and differential access but also several other explanations for interlinking suggested in the literature. Moreover, it allows one to test the sensitivity of the results to differing powers on the part of landowners relative to working households.     

The Islamic State and the New Tribalism

This article focuses on the apocalyptic zeitgeist of the Islamic State through the lens of what we call the New Tribalism. It finds that IS emerged from the Al Qaeda (AQ) milieu, but soon split with AQ as the messianic excitement surrounding Al-Baghdadi and his teachings grew. In common with previous millennial/messianic movements in all three “Peoples of the Book”—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—IS soon evolved beyond the laws of the normative faith (antinomianism). We hold that for this reason, despite its claims of faith and fealty, IS has left the Islamic Umah behind, becoming a malign sectarian group of its own whose dynamism and successes are attracting a global audience and support from Muslims in almost every country. This helps to explain such abhorrent practices as forced conversion, sexual servitude, the destruction of historic artifacts, and mass executions. We find that the American invasion of Iraq was the vital first step in a series of events, which gave birth to IS. A thorough review of IS history and political culture traces these historic moments in time.     

Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine

How does manpower affect counterinsurgency? Important debates about counterinsurgency theory, military doctrine, force planning, and ongoing military operations revolve around assumptions about the role manpower plays in determining counterinsurgency outcomes. But these assumptions have not, by and large, been subjected to large-n analysis. This paper helps serve that role by examining new data on counterinsurgents’ deployments across 171 campaigns since World War I. These data provide insight into a range of important issues, such as how force size should be measured, whether it is related to counterinsurgent success, whether troop nationality matters, and whether the role of manpower varies across contexts. Of these findings, the most notable is that conventional rules of thumb for force sizing, including the recommendation put forth in official US military doctrine, receive no empirical support. These findings therefore challenge the prevailing wisdom, while laying the groundwork for a range of future scholarship.     

Personnel management and productivity reform: Taming the civil service in Great Britain and the United States

This paper examines recent efforts to improve public sector productivity through reform of personnel systems and processes in Great Britain and the United States. Productivity efforts in both countries have been stimulated by and implemented in highly politicized environments. They have been attempts to secure the values of not only economy and efficiency, but also executive leadership and political responsiveness. The implications of these productivity reforms for the performance and character of the public service have been only dimly understood.