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Peter Clegg 《圆桌》2013,102(2):204-206
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Peter Hays Gries 《Asian Security》2013,9(2):63-86
Abstract Rejecting the certainty of prediction in favor of a probabilistic approach to forecasting, this paper develops an eight-step forecasting methodology, addressing 1) structural drivers, 2) predetermined elements, 3) critical uncertainties, 4) chance, 5) scenarios, 6) probabilities, 7) signposts, and 8) policy implications, and applies it to the medium-term future of US–China relations. Specifically, it forecasts a 45 percent chance that US–China relations in 2015 will be best characterized overall by a rivals scenario, followed by a 35 percent chance that the US and China will be partners. The chances that the US and China will be allies or enemies are significantly more remote, but real, at 5 percent and 15 percent respectively. 相似文献
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Karen Dawisha Joseph Frankel Alan M James Ashok Kapur Peter Calvert Mohammad A Qadeer 《Third world quarterly》2013,34(3):137-179
Sphinx and Commissar: the rise and fall of Soviet influence in the Arab world. Mohamed Heikal, London: Collins. 1978. 303 pp. £6.95. Soviet Involvement in the Middle East: policy formulation 1966–1973. Ilana Kass, Folkestone, England: Dawson. 1978. 273 pp. £11.00. The Limits to Power: Soviet policy in the Middle East. Edited by Yaacov Ro'i, London: Croom Helm. 1979. 376 pp. £10.95. In the Direction of the Persian Gulf: the Soviet Union and the Persian Gulf. A Yodfat and M Abir, London: Frank Cass. 1977. 167 pp. £8.95. Moral Claims in World Affairs. Edited by Ralph Pettman, London: Croom Helm. 1979. 199 pp. £8.50. The United Nations: how it works and what it does. Evan Luard, London: Macmillan. 1979. 187 pp. £8.95. The International Politics of the Nigerian Civil War, 1967–1970. John J Stremlau, Princeton University Press. 1977. 425 pp. £16.70. £6.25 pb. The Arms Trade and International Systems. Robert E Harkavy, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger (distributed in the UK by John Wiley). 1975. 288 pp. £11.60. The Terrorism Reader. Edited by Walter Laqueur, London: Wildwood House. 1979. 291 pp. £7.50. International Terrorism in the Contemporary World. Edited by Marius H. Livingston et al, London: Greenwood Press. 1978. 522 pp. £24.50. Cities of Peasants: the political economy of urbanisation in the Third World. Bryan Roberts, London: Edward Arnold. 1978. 207 pp. £4.50pb. Shelter Provision in the Developing Countries: the influence of standards and criteria. A L Mabogunje, J E Hardoy and R P Misra Chichester, England: John Wiley. 1978. 94 pp. £4.75 pb. Independence Documents of the World. Edited by A P Blaustein et al. Dobbs Ferry, New York: Oceana Publications/Leyden: A W Sijthoff. 1977. 2 Vols. 800 pp. $75.00. Asia's Nuclear Future. Edited by William H Overholt, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. 1978. 285 pp. £11.75. Commodity Agreements and Price Stabilisation. David McNicol, Lexington, Massachusetts: D C Heath. 1978. 335 pp. £10.00. Stabilising World Commodity Markets. F Gerald Adams and Sonia A Klein, Lexington, Massachusetts: D C Heath. 1978. 335 pp. £17.50. National Interests and Presidential Leadership: the setting of priorities. Donald E Nuechterlein, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press (Distributed in the UK by Ernest Benn). 1978. 246 pp. £12.50. Economics: an introduction to traditional and radical views. E K Hunt and H J Sherman, New York: Harper & Row. 1978. 617 pp. £5.95 pb. The Alternative in Eastern Europe. Rudolf Bahro (translated by David Fernbach) London: New Left Books. 1978. 463 pp. £9.50. Africa's International Relations: the diplomacy of dependency and change. Ali A Mazrui, London: Heinemann. 1977. 324 pp. £8.50. The Foreign Polices of African States.. Edited by Olajide Aluko. London: Hodder & Stoughton. 1977. 249 pp. £4.50. Drought in Africa 2. Edited by David Dalby et al, London: International African Institute. 1977. 200 pp. £5.00. Landuse and Development. Edited by Phil O'Keefe and Ben Wisner, London: International African Institute. 1977. 232 pp. £5.25. The Cyprus Revolt. Nancy Crawshaw, London: Allen & Unwin. 1978. 396 pp. £12.50. Southeast Asian Transitions: approaches through social history. Edited by Ruth T McVey, Yale University Press. 1978. 242 pp. £12.60. Elite Politics in an Ideological State: the case of Pakistan. Asaf Hussain, London: Dawson. 1979. 212 pp. £9.00. Politics and Government in Malaysia. R S Milne and Diane K Mauzy. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. 1978. 406 pp. Towards Total Revolution: the writings and speeches of Jayaprakash Narayan. Edited by Brahmanand, Richmond, England: Richmond Publishing. 1978. Vols I‐IV. 1145 pp. £35.95. India: population, economy, society. R H Cassen, London: Macmillan. 1978. 419 pp. £10.00. Experiments in Family Planning: lessons from the developing world. R Cuca and C S Pierce, London: John Hopkins University Press. 1977. 261 pp. £2.50 pb. Militarism in Modern China: the career of Wu P'ei‐fu, 1916–1939. Odoric Y K Wou. Canberra: Australian National University Press (distributed in the UK by Dawson). 1978. 346 pp. £12.50. China's Economy: a basic guide. Christopher Howe, London: Paul Elek. 1978. 248 pp. £7.50. China and Japan 1949–1976. R K Jain, New Delhi: Radiant Publishers (distributed in the UK by Martin Robertson). 1977. 336 pp. £10.50. Finding a Voice: Asian women in Britain. Amrit Wilson, London: Virago. 1978. 179 pp. £2.50. Role of Rural Women in Development. Report of an international seminar held at the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex, 5 January‐10 February 1977. Edited by Vira Mazumdar, Delhi: Indian Council of Social Science Research. 1978. 125 pp. £3.00. International Perspectives in Rural Sociology. Edited by Howard Newby, Chichester, England: John Wiley. 1978. 220pp. £10.95. 相似文献
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