Understanding the historical turn in the policy sciences: A critique of stochastic, narrative, path dependency and process-sequencing models of policy-making over time

This article evaluates four general models of historical change processes which have emerged in various fields in the social sciences – namely stochastic, historical narrative, path dependency and process sequencing – and their application to the study of public policy-making. The article sets out and assesses the merits and evidence for each, both in general social research and in the policy sciences. The article suggests that more work needs to be done examining the assumptions and presuppositions of each model before it can be concluded that any represents the general case in policy processes. However, since neither the irreversible linear reality assumed by narrative models, nor the random and chaotic world assumed by stochastic models, nor the contingent turning points and irreversible trajectories required of the path dependency model are found very often in policy-making, these models are likely to remain less significant than process-sequencing models in describing the overall general pattern of policy dynamics.     

All Together Now? An Empirical Study of the Voting Behaviors of Homeowner Association Members in St. Louis County

Homeowner associations (HOAs), by design, collect homogenous members of a community into a residential development with defined boundaries and contain at least some very active individuals. This implies that HOAs may lower the transaction costs involved with voting resulting in HOA membership increasing voter participation. Further, as more HOAs provide goods and services to their members as substitutes for goods and services provided by the public sector, one would expect HOA members to vote more conservatively and in support of more privatization. Using a detailed population database constructed for Saint Louis County, Missouri, and results from the November 2004 general election, this article analyzes the effect that living in an HOA has on voter participation and on the results of several election issues. Following a similar study by the Public Policy Institute of California, the results show that, once population characteristics are controlled for, there is no HOA effect on the likelihood of HOA members to vote Republican. Unlike previous work, this study shows that if the vote reporting districts are broken into five mutually exclusive categories rather than using the 60% rule used in other studies, areas with more HOAs do show an increase in participation rates and an increased likelihood to vote against property tax increases. The results hold up even after the presence of spatial autocorrelation is confirmed and controlled for.     

Group Components of U.S. Presidential Voting Across the States

Examinations of the sociodemographic group foundations of presidential voting and electoral coalitions rely on national samples (e.g., the American National Election Studies). However, recent developments in the state party and electoral change literature suggest variation across the United States in the group bases of political coalitions and in the process of electoral adjustment. Moreover, the strategic implications of the electoral college suggest a focus on state electorates. We estimate multivariate, group-based logit models of presidential vote choice using 1988 CBS/ New York Times and 1992 Voter Research and Surveys exit poll data from each of the largest states. Our results reveal noteworthy variation in the nature of group influences on presidential voting, in the composition of presidential electoral coalitions, and in cleavage structures across the states. This mapping exercise suggests limitations in theoretical and empirical accounts of presidential voting, political cleavage, and electoral change that do not accommodate the geopolitical diversity of the United States.     

The Australian Public Sector and New Governance

The AJPA resumed publishing the Administrative Chronicle in 1996. Each year the editors invite a distinguished writer to contribute an administrative essay reviewing developments in the previous year. They are asked to examine trends and topics of major importance rather than simply providing a chronology of events. In inviting contributors the editors have attempted to incorporate different views across Australia. Previous chronicles have included J Stewart (55)1; S Prasser (56)1 and J Homeshaw (57)3.     

Body Size Estimations,Body Dissatisfaction,and Ideal Size Preferences in Children Six Through Thirteen

Results of the second year of a 3-year longitudinal study on children's body size estimations are reported. Participants were 216 male and female children age 6 through 13. Body size estimations were measured using a TV-video methodology. Three psychophysical procedures measured perceived body size, idealized size, and body dissatisfaction. Self-esteem, body esteem, birth order, number of siblings, and parents' socioeconomic status (SES) were measured. Children were accurate in estimating body size, with no gender, age, or ethnic differences. Individual estimations varied greatly over the 1-year test-retest interval. Children had a slight bias to report that their body size was distorted too wide. Both genders wanted to be thinner, with females wanting to be increasingly thinner as they became older. Females were also more dissatisfied with their body size. Taller and heavier children with high SES fathers wanted a thinner idealized body size. Taller, thinner children had less body size dissatisfaction. Children with a larger number of siblings who were one of the first born were more dissatisfied with their body size. Children who gained weight during the previous year without a concomitant growth in height were also more dissatisfied with their body and wanted to be thinner. Body size estimation is viewed as an important aspect of one's body image and is mediated by many different variables, each of which individually explains only a small part of the variance.     

Complexity in local stakeholder coordination: decentralization and community water management in Northern Ghana

Stakeholder coordination is a prominent theme in current development discourse. Experience with decentralization and community water management in northern Ghana highlights the complexities of coordinating stakeholders at the local level. In this case, roles and responsibilities must be clarified between legislated sub‐district structures on the one hand, and civic water groups on the other. This is especially important with regard to resolving which party should collect revenues and manage assets and expenditures in the water sector. The key mechanism for addressing these issues is the District Assembly, which is empowered under the decentralization law to coordinate stakeholders, both ‘horizontally’, across social actors, and ‘vertically’, between the national and sub‐district levels. While such local‐level dynamics are indeed complex and challenging, they are at the same time probably more amenable to at least medium‐term resolution than stakeholder competition issues at the national level. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Horizontal Accountability in Transitional Democracies: The Human Rights Ombudsman in El Salvador and Guatemala

Postwar El Salvador and Guatemala have undertaken to reform and democratize the state and to support the rule of law. Each country entered the 1990s hobbled by a legacy of authoritarian rule, while a corrupt and politicized judiciary offered virtually no check on the abuse of power. Because the judiciary has performed poorly as an institution of horizontal accountability, this article examines the performance of a new "accountability agency," the Human Rights Ombudsman. The article discusses the context in which the office was established and developed in each country, perceptions of its performance, and political responses as the office began to perform its function of holding public officials accountable in their exercise of power. Unfortunately, this new office may fall prey to the same weaknesses that have plagued older institutions in both countries.