When Can Politicians Scare Citizens Into Supporting Bad Policies?

Many people claim that politicians use fear to manipulate citizens. Using a model, we examine how select attributes of fear affect a politician's ability to scare citizens into supporting policies that they would otherwise reject. In the model, the politician can alert citizens to the presence of a threat. But his claim need not be true. How citizens respond to this claim differs from most game-theoretic models. Our representation of this response follows from research in psychology, has distinct conscious and subconscious components, and does not presume efficient processing (i.e., Bayesian updating). Our conclusions counter popular claims about when politicians will use fear to manipulate citizens. They also highlight issues (abstract, distant) and leaders (secretive) for which recent empirical findings about how fear affects politics will—and will not—generalize to other cases.     

George W. Bush, the Party System, and American Federalism

George W. Bush's presidency presents two major puzzles. TheRepublican Party has traditionally stood for "limited government,"but Bush's principal legacy for federalism is centralizationof power in the federal government and the executive branch.Most modern presidents have neglected their partisan duties,but Bush has been a uniquely vigorous party leader. Here, weshow that Bush's puzzling lack of attention to federalism issuesis in large part the result of his efforts to strengthen theRepublican Party to cope with the political and electoral challengescharacteristic of the contemporary political context. We explainwhy the Bush administration's strategy for redressing the Republicanparty's shortcomings has presupposed the deprecation of federalism,and consider the implications of our argument for the developmentof federal arrangements.     

Capability,Credibility, and Extended General Deterrence

Deterrence theory suggests that extended general deterrent threats are likely to be more effective when a potential challenger views them as capable and credible. When states sign formal defense pacts, they are making explicit extended general deterrent threats. Thus, the population of defense pacts allows us an opportunity to judge the efficacy of extended deterrent threats with different characteristics. We find that defense pacts with more capability and more credibility reduce the probability that a member state will be a target of a militarized dispute. We also find that states can affect the capability and credibility of their extended deterrent threats through alliance design. Members of defense pacts that include higher levels of peacetime military coordination are less likely to be attacked. This analysis provides support for deterrence theory in the context of extended general deterrence. It also provides evidence that should aid policymakers in designing security structures to meet their goals.     

The National Governance and Policy Context of Social Impact Bond Emergence: A Comparative Analysis of Leaders and Skeptics

Abstract

Proponents of the Social Impact Bond (SIB) model put forward a value-for-money case for SIBs based on new resources, efficiency enhancements and innovation for social service delivery, suggesting broad potential for SIB uptake in varying national contexts. SIB use has however been concentrated in Anglo-Saxon liberal market economies. This paper analyses the possibility that SIBs are proceeding given their alignment with particular governance and policy regimes, as opposed to any universal superiority from a cost-effectiveness or efficiency perspective. A comparative analysis is undertaken of the United Kingdom and the United States, leaders in SIB implementation, with France and Germany. A range of indicators representing the adoption of neoliberal governance approaches are reviewed and linked to their complementarity with the SIB model. Policy implications for SIB governance are then explored.     

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Link Between Learning Disabilities and Juvenile Delinquency in Mexican American School-Age Youth

Students with Learning Disabilities (LD) are a heterogeneous group of children who share the common characteristic of school difficulty and failure. More students in American schools are identified as Learning Disabled than any other type of disability under current federal law. The present study is a longitudinal survey that was designed to (a) test four hypothesized mediating links within the School Failure Rationale connecting juvenile delinquency (JD) to LD, and (b) apply the School Failure Rationale in the context of a low Socioeconomic Status, all-Mexican American group of youngsters (n = 75; mean CA = 12.9; IQ = 88). A path analysis was conducted to determine significance between juvenile delinquency and the mediating variables of self-esteem, peer delinquency, school dissatisfaction, and locus of control. Results indicate that all of the mediating variables except self-esteem played either a direct or indirect role in self-reported delinquency in year one or in year three of this study.     

Factors affecting the sustainability of a community water supply project in Kenya

This paper examines how three sustainability factors (water supply, regulatory policy, local management) are affecting the sustainability of a community water supply project in Kenya. Findings show that after 10 years the project is at a threshold of sustainability – it may yet fail. Changing rainfall patterns and additional withdrawals from new projects are threatening available water supply. The community is resisting compliance with water sector reforms including those intended to benefit community-managed projects. Community management deficiencies and a lack of supportive external relationships are impeding project continuity and sustainable local water management.