Reliability of Sexually Violent Predator Civil Commitment Criteria in Florida

The present study investigated the reliability of Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) civil commitment criteria under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act. The purpose of the study was to determine if, independently, 2 evaluators would reach the same conclusions about the same client (n = 295). According to civil commitment criteria outlined by the United States Supreme Court (Kansas v. Hendricks, 1997), SVPs must display a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and a likelihood of future sexual violence. The interrater reliability of 8 DSM-IV diagnoses applied by evaluators to determine whether a client has a "mental abnormality that predisposes him to sexual violence" was found to be poor to fair (kappa = .23 to . 70). The interrater reliability of risk assessment instruments used to determine "likelihood of reoffense" was good (ICC = .77 to .85). The recommendations made by evaluators regarding whether or not to refer a client for civil commitment demonstrated poor reliability (kappa = .54). Implications for practice and policy are explored.     

Moving Up,Moving Out,or Going Nowhere? A Study of the Employment Patterns of Young Women and the Implications for Welfare Mothers

Conventional wisdom holds that women on welfare will be better off in the long run if they take a job, even if it means initially having less money to spend on their and their children's needs. Underlying this thinking is the belief that women who take low‐paying jobs will eventually move up to higher paying jobs either with their current employer or by changing employers. This paper examines the employment transitions of young women focusing on the likelihood that women who turn to the welfare system for support will make the transition from low‐paying to high‐paying jobs. The data are drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY). Based on the experiences of women who never received welfare, an estimated one‐quarter of young women who received welfare could be firmly established in jobs paying more than $9.50 an hour by ages 26 and 27. An additional 40 percent would work steadily but in low‐paying jobs, and more than one‐third would work only sporadically. © 2001 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Terrorist Decision Making and the Deterrence Problem

An ongoing debate among policymakers and terrorism scholars concerns the effectiveness of deterrence as a counterterrorism tool. Absent from the debate is a discussion of the complex nature of terrorist decision making. Decisions are made at varying levels in a terrorist organization, often by actors having different motives, resulting in behavior that is not always fully rational. This article identifies several circumstances when terrorist behavior is not the product of an entirely unitary, rational decision-making process, and therefore highlights when deterrence policies will be least effective. It concludes with some policy implications for understanding when deterrence policies are most likely to succeed and how to address terrorism in other situations.     

The quantification of fingerprint quality using a relative contrast index

Research into fingermark enhancement techniques has traditionally used visual comparisons and qualitative methods to assess their effectiveness based on the quality of the developed fingermark. However, with increasing research into the optimisation of these techniques the need for a quantitative evaluative method has arisen. Parameters for acceptable fingerprint quality are not well defined and generally encompass clear, sharp edges and high levels of contrast between the fingermark ridges and background material. Using these current parameters, a conclusive measurement of fingerprint quality and thus the effectiveness of development techniques cannot be achieved.This study presents a model through which an aspect of fingerprint quality can be objectively and impartially measured based on a relative contrast index, constructed through measuring the reflective intensity of the fingermark ridges against the background material. Using a fibre-optic spectrophotometer attached to a microscope with axial illumination, the intensity counts of the ridge detail and background material were measured and a logarithmic contrast index constructed. The microscope and spectrophotometer parameters were experimentally tested using a standard colour resolution chart with known reflective properties. The protocol was successfully applied to four sample groups: black inked fingerprints on white paper; latent fingermarks on white paper developed separately with ninhydrin and physical developer; and fingermarks in blood deposited on white tiles and enhanced with amido black. The contrast indices obtained quantitatively reflect the level of contrast and provide an indication of fingerprint quality through a numerical representation rather than previous qualitative methods. It has been suggested that the proposed method of fingerprint quantification may be viable for application in the forensic research arena as it allows the definitive measurement of contrast to aid the evaluation of fingermark detection and enhancement techniques.