A Framework for Unifying Formal and Empirical Analysis

An important disconnect exists between the current use of formal modeling and applied statistical analysis. In general, a lack of linkage between the two can produce statistically significant parameters of ambiguous origin that, in turn, fail to assist in falsifying theories and hypotheses. To address this scientific challenge, a framework for unification is proposed. Methodological unification leverages the mutually reinforcing properties of formal and applied statistical analysis to produce greater transparency in relating theory to test. This framework for methodological unification, or what has been referred to as the empirical implications of theoretical models (EITM), includes (1) connecting behavioral (formal) and applied statistical concepts, (2) developing behavioral (formal) and applied statistical analogues of these concepts, and (3) linking and evaluating the behavioral (formal) and applied statistical analogues. The elements of this EITM framework are illustrated with examples from voting behavior, macroeconomic policy and outcomes, and political turnout.     

Sick but not Dying

Cable, V. (2009) The Storm: The World Economic Crisis and What it Means . London: Atlantic Books.
Peston, R. (2008) Who Runs Britain ... and Who's to Blame for the Economic Mess We're In? London: Hodder and Stoughton.
Krugman, P. (2008) The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 . London: Allen Lane.
Gamble, A. (2009) The Spectre at the Feast: Capitalist Crisis and the Politics of Recession . Basingstoke: PalgraveMacmillan.     

Automated processing of forensic casework samples using robotic workstations equipped with nondisposable tips: contamination prevention

An automated process has been developed for the analysis of forensic casework samples using TECAN Genesis RSP 150/8 or Freedom EVO liquid handling workstations equipped exclusively with nondisposable tips. Robot tip cleaning routines have been incorporated strategically within the DNA extraction process as well as at the end of each session. Alternative options were examined for cleaning the tips and different strategies were employed to verify cross-contamination. A 2% sodium hypochlorite wash (1/5th dilution of the 10.8% commercial bleach stock) proved to be the best overall approach for preventing cross-contamination of samples processed using our automated protocol. The bleach wash steps do not adversely impact the short tandem repeat (STR) profiles developed from DNA extracted robotically and allow for major cost savings through the implementation of fixed tips. We have demonstrated that robotic workstations equipped with fixed pipette tips can be used with confidence with properly designed tip washing routines to process casework samples using an adapted magnetic bead extraction protocol.     

Fourier transform infrared reflectance spectra of latent fingerprints: a biometric gauge for the age of an individual

To determine if changes in fingerprint infrared spectra linear with age can be found, partial least squares (PLS1) regression of 155 fingerprint infrared spectra against the person's age was constructed. The regression produced a linear model of age as a function of spectrum with a root mean square error of calibration of less than 4 years, showing an inflection at about 25 years of age. The spectral ranges emphasized by the regression do not correspond to the highest concentration constituents of the fingerprints. Separate linear regression models for old and young people can be constructed with even more statistical rigor. The success of the regression demonstrates that a combination of constituents can be found that changes linearly with age, with a significant shift around puberty.     

Participant or Spectator? Victim‐Focused Political Activity since 2010

The public significance of the victim has shifted over successive governments. Each party, when in power, has utilised and politicised the victim to support its policy and legislative agenda. However, on the whole, this attention has been reserved for those who are victims of serious crime (such as murder, sexual violence and domestic abuse) and not volume offences (such as burglary, criminal damage, theft). Recent years have seen the inquiry rising in popularity, a ‘quick political fix’ to satisfy victims—and the public—that action on societal ills is being taken. However, in so doing, successive governments have, perhaps inadvertently, tended to replicate the ‘hierarchy of victimisation’ that is witnessed in frontline criminal justice activities. This has the result of affording victims only a spectator role when policy and legislative changes are being developed in their name. By contrast, the actions taken in developing expert and practitioner‐led policy around victim experience have proved to be more ‘successful’ in generating lasting change. This article suggests that there is no single ‘right’ approach to involving victims in policy development, but that each particular incident or situation needs consideration as how most ‘effectively’ to involve first‐hand victim experience.     

Information diffusion within the electorate:: the asymmetric transmission of political–economic information

This paper examines the connection between information and expectations. Drawing upon Lazarsfeld et al.'s (Lazarsfeld, P.F., Berelson, B., Gaudet, H., 1944. The People's Choice. Duell, Sloan, and Pearce, New York) classic work on communication flows, we devise an asymmetric transmission model of expectation formation. This model assumes that the expectations of the less informed segments within the electorate are influenced by the expectations of more informed groups but that the opposite does not hold. We use educational differences as a proxy for information heterogeneity. A vector autoregression (VAR) analysis on monthly surveys of inflation expectations supports the asymmetric transmission hypothesis.     

Integrity Systems,Values, and Expectations: Explaining Differences in the Extent of Corruption in Three Spanish Local Governments

Our article attempts to explain the differences in the extent of corruption related to urban planning in three Spanish local settings, all of them being important touristic resorts: Marbella, a municipality in the Costa del Sol with a very high level of corruption; Lanzarote, in the Canary islands with a high incidence of corruption despite its pioneering role in establishing innovative policies to limit urban (touristic) growth; and Menorca, in the Balearic Islands where corruption has been very low. We argue that the explanations focusing on the different features of the local integrity systems (LISs) face difficulties to account for the variations in the incidence of corruption across these Spanish municipalities: despite some interesting differences, the LIS of the cases considered is basically quite similar. Thus, we turn to the analysis of social values and social expectations on the political system by local citizens, testing whether a different set of citizens’ values and expectations on the behavior of local decision makers may explain this local variation in corruption practices. The article presents the results of a public opinion survey on values and expectations administered in the three cases. Against our expectations and the literature on the topic, no significant difference in shared social values and expectations has been found. The article shows that, as for an empirically tested explanation of the cross-local variations in the degree of urban corruption in Spain, the jury is still out.