Active Labour Market Programmes in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

We present a systematic review and meta-analysis of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We extract 296 impact estimates from 51 programme evaluations to analyse the effects of participation on employment, earnings, hours worked, and formality. Our analysis finds that the probabilities of being employed and in formal employment are the labour market indicators most likely to be positively affected by ALMPs in LAC. Moreover, ALMPs are more successful among women and youth and when they are implemented during periods of economic expansion. Training programmes increase both formal employment and earnings; training is particularly effective when it is more intensive and when explicitly targeting poor individuals.     

Nachruf auf Daniel Bell (1919–2011)

Mitteilungen und Berichte

Nachruf auf Daniel Bell (1919–2011)     

Die Bedeutung des regionalen Kontexts für die programmatische Positionierung von Schweizer Kantonalparteien1

Zusammenfassung: In Mehrebenensystemen agierende Parteien sind mit sozialstrukturell sehr unterschiedlich zusammengesetzten Wählerschaften konfrontiert. Da für regionale Parteigliederungen – insbesondere in föderal organisierten Demokratien – der Wettbewerb um Wählerstimmen zuvorderst innerhalb der Grenzen der jeweiligen Region stattfindet, müssen sie den unterschiedlich zusammengesetzten Elektoraten differenzierte inhaltliche Angebote machen, die auf die spezifischen Präferenzen der Wählerschaft eingehen. Wir evaluieren diese Überlegungen am Beispiel der Schweiz als einem Mehrebenensystem, in dem sich die Wählerschaft von Kanton zu Kanton in ihrer sprachlichen, konfessionellen und sozioökonomischen Struktur deutlich unterscheidet. Dabei nehmen wir eine Analyse der programmatischen Dokumente der Schweizer Parteien auf kantonaler Ebene vor, um deren inhaltliche Präferenzen zu bestimmen. Die dabei herangezogenen Wahlprogramme von kantonalen Parteigliederungen sind eine bisher wenig beachtete Quelle zur Bestimmung von Parteipositionen, die jedoch gerade für die Arbeiten zur subnationalen Politik grosses Potential bietet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich sozialstrukturelle Eigenschaften der Wählerschaft eines Kantons in der Tat in den programmatischen Positionen der Kantonalparteien widerspiegeln. So sind Parteien in der französischsprachigen Schweiz wirtschaftspolitisch “linker”, wohingegen die Parteien in ländlichen Kantonen tendenziell konservativere Haltungen in Fragen der Gesellschaftspolitik einnehmen.     

Assaults in the elderly--a population-based study with victim and perpetrator characteristics

The aim of the present epidemiological study was to investigate characteristics of assaults in the elderly aged 65 years and above from the perspective of the victim and perpetrator. This population-based study included 23,142 assaults (according to §§ 224/226 StGB of German criminal law) that were recorded in Bavaria, Germany, from 1999 to 2005. The population-based ratio of serious crimes of battery for the elderly in comparison with the reference population was markedly lower (0.10; 95% CI: 0.09-0.11) in suspects aged more than 65 years and 0.08 (95% CI: 0.07-0.09) for the injured above 65 years. Elderly perpetrators differed significantly concerning the manner of the assault (p < 0.001). They committed less crimes in urban areas (56.1% vs. 68.8%) and were victimized significantly more in rural areas (p < 0.001; 41.2% vs. 30.2%). Violence in the elderly differs from that of the younger population. Further research is warranted to establish prevention measures.     

Drug screening in clinical or forensic toxicology: are there differences?

Legal and medical practitioners need to remember that, with respect to drug analysis, there are two distinct disciplines in analytical toxicology concerned with human biological matrices, namely clinical and forensic toxicology. Both fields use similar analytical techniques designed to detect and quantify drugs, chemicals and poisons in fluids or tissues. In clinical toxicology, analytical results help to specify the appropriate treatment of a poisoned or intoxicated patient. In forensic toxicology, the results often play a vital role in determining the possible impairment or behavioural changes in an individual, or the contribution of drugs or poisons to death in a medico-legal investigation. This column provides an overview of the similarities and differences inherent in clinical and forensic toxicology.     

Leadership Matters: The Effects of Targeted Killings on Militant Group Tactics

Targeted killings have become a central component of counterterrorism strategy. In response to the unprecedented prevalence of this strategy around the world, numerous empirical studies have recently examined whether “decapitating” militant groups with targeted killings is strategically effective. This study builds on that research program by examining the impact of targeted killings on militant group tactical decision-making. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in the attack patterns of militant groups conditional on whether a government’s targeted killing attempt succeeded against them operationally. In both the Afghanistan-Pakistan and Israel-West Bank-Gaza Strip theaters, targeted killings significantly alter the nature of militant group violence. When their leaderships are degraded with a successful strike, militant groups become far less discriminate in their target selection by redirecting their violence from military to civilian targets. We then analyze several potential causal mechanisms to account for these results and find strongest evidence that targeted killings tend to promote indiscriminate organizational violence by empowering lower level members with weaker civilian restraint.     

Do Voters’ Coalition Preferences Affect Government Formation?

Studies on coalition formation assume that political parties have two major goals: they aim to maximise office and policy payoffs. This paper shows that decision-making in the government formation game is also determined by the voters’ coalition preferences. Since the coalition formation process is not a one-shot game, parties have to take the coalition preferences of the electorate into account when they evaluate the utility of potential coalitions. If parties fail to comply with the coalition preferences of voters, they are likely to be penalised in future elections. The argument is tested by an analysis of government formation in the 16 German states between 1990 and 2009. The results support the argument: the formation of coalitions – at least in the German states – is not only determined by office- and policy-seeking behaviour of political parties, but also by the preferences of voters regarding their preferred outcome of the coalition game.     

Democratization after Civil Wars – Key Problems and Experiences

Democratization and peace-building in post-civil war situations are closely interlinked. To analyse the difficulties of post-war democratization, and especially democratization as attempted by external and international actors, this article deals with the problem in several stages: first, it will provide a brief overview of the recent discourse on the topic, to place the discussion into the political and academic context. Second, it will focus on the reasons for and the types of civil wars, and the actors involved, because these provide the starting points of any attempt of post-war democratization and will determine the conditions for success and failure. Third, the key structural problems for post-civil war democratization will be explored, including ethnic fragmentation, followed by a brief analysis of the specific role, opportunities and limits of external actors in democratization. Finally, we will try to formulate a few hypotheses and conclusions to help explain the limited success of external democracy building in post-war societies, concentrating on the cases of Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The account concludes that without the necessary preconditions for democratization in post-conflict societies, external attempts will be of little success. Among the key requirements is the need for a strong and organized social base for democratization to build on. On the other hand, contradictions in the policies of intervening powers are a major hindrance.