美国民众对中国台湾地位认知的影响因素——基于美国人对华态度实证调研

台湾历来是中国领土的一部分,由于台湾优越的地理位置,长期受到外来势力的干扰.二战胜利后,台湾问题本来是国共内战遗留的内政问题,但由于美国的多方阻挠,台湾问题成为中美关系中最敏感的问题之一.自中国恢复联合国合法席位以及中美建交以后,包括美国在内的绝大部分国家都承认“台湾是中国的一部分”.中美关系下的台湾问题经历了中美对峙、中美建交、冷战后和9·11后以后,美国民众到底是如何认识中国台湾问题的?本文采用logistic模型,利用美国人对华态度实证调研的数据,全面解读美国民众如何看待中国台湾,并从中了解哪些因素影响美国民众对中国台湾地位的认识.     

Lethal Connections: The Determinants of Network Connections in the Provisional Irish Republican Army, 1970–1998

Using stochastic methods we illustrate that the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) network is clustered along three primary dimensions: (a) brigade affiliation, (b) whether the member participated in violent activities, and (c) task/role within PIRA. While most brigades tended to foster connections within the brigade (that is, “closure”), the tendency to do so varied across the organization. Members who engaged with violent activities were far more likely to connect with each other; in later periods there is polarization into those who engage in violent activities and those who do not. Across brigades, those who engage in a particular task and role (improvised explosive device [IED] constructor, IED planter, gunman, robber/kidnapper/drug smuggler/hijacker) are more likely to connect with others who do the same task or play the same role than with other members who fulfill other roles. Standard forms of homophily (that is, the tendency to make connections with people who are similar in terms of demography or status) play a very weak role in explaining which members interact with one another. Finally, our analysis illustrates clear patterns of relational change that correspond to changes in the formal structures that PIRA's leadership promoted.     

The Strange Revival of Bicameralism

The turn of the twenty-first century witnessed a surprising reversal of the long-observed trend towards the disappearance of second chambers in unitary states, with 28 countries – all but one of them unitary – adopting the bicameral system. This article explores this development by first setting it in the context of the historical evolution of second chambers and the arguments that support bicameralism, and then exploring the characteristics that distinguish today's second chambers from first chambers. A ‘census’ of second chambers in 2014 is used to provide data on second chambers in federal and unitary states, to facilitate comparison with earlier data, and to distinguish between ‘new’ and longer-established second chambers. The article concludes that newly established second chambers are concentrated predominantly in political systems where liberal democratic principles are not established, suggesting that the debate over their role in democratic states is set to continue.     

Bombing Alone: Tracing the Motivations and Antecedent Behaviors of Lone‐Actor Terrorists,,

This article analyzes the sociodemographic network characteristics and antecedent behaviors of 119 lone‐actor terrorists. This marks a departure from existing analyses by largely focusing upon behavioral aspects of each offender. This article also examines whether lone‐actor terrorists differ based on their ideologies or network connectivity. The analysis leads to seven conclusions. There was no uniform profile identified. In the time leading up to most lone‐actor terrorist events, other people generally knew about the offender's grievance, extremist ideology, views, and/or intent to engage in violence. A wide range of activities and experiences preceded lone actors' plots or events. Many but not all lone‐actor terrorists were socially isolated. Lone‐actor terrorists regularly engaged in a detectable and observable range of activities with a wider pressure group, social movement, or terrorist organization. Lone‐actor terrorist events were rarely sudden and impulsive. There were distinguishable behavioral differences between subgroups. The implications for policy conclude this article.     

Crime Scene Staging in Homicide

A nonrandom national U.S. sample of 946 homicide crime scenes--supplied by the FBI Behavioral Science Unit for purposes of research--was studied to delineate the prevalence, types, levels, and motives for staging in domestic, nonserial sexual, serial sexual, and general felony homicides. Stagers were found to be a relatively small group who employ a variety of methods to alter the crime scene in an attempt to redirect the investigation away from themselves as logical suspects. Results also suggest that different types of homicides have different staging rates based primarily on the relationship (or connection) between offender and victim. Implications for investigations and understanding this type of crime scene behavior are discussed.     

A Bi-level Framework for Understanding Prisoner Victimization

Objectives

To present and test an opportunity perspective on prison inmate victimization.

Methods

Stratified random samples of inmates (n ₁ = 5,640) were selected from Ohio and Kentucky prisons (n ₂ = 46). Bi-level models of the prevalence of assaults and thefts were estimated. Predictors included indicators of inmate routines/guardianship, target antagonism, and target vulnerability at the individual level, and several indicators of guardianship at the facility level.

Results

Assaults were more common among inmates with certain routines and characteristics that might have increased their odds of being victimized (e.g., less time spent in recreation; committed violence themselves during incarceration), and higher levels of assaults characterized environments with lower levels of guardianship (e.g., architectural designs with more “blind spots”, larger populations, and less rigorous rule enforcement as perceived by correctional officers). Similar findings emerged for thefts in addition to stronger individual level effects in prisons with weaker guardianship (e.g., ethnic group differences in the risk of theft were greater in facilities with larger populations and less rigorous rule enforcement).

Conclusions

The study produced evidence favoring a bi-level opportunity perspective of inmate victimization, with some unique differences in the relevance of particular concepts between prison and non-prison contexts.     

Medical regulation of cognitive enhancement devices: some concerns

The authors present a cogent and detailed case for altering the Medical Devices Directive to allow regulation of cognitive enhancement devices (CEDs). Protection against significant risk of harm, especially for the vulnerable, and promotion of benefit through informed use of CEDs are all good features of the proposal. However, the pre-market approval process has limitations, which we explore. We raise the possibility of ‘risk compensation’ in response to the introduction of safety measures, which could alter its effectiveness. The proposal alludes to use of ‘formally trained practitioners,’ which provide a further tier of regulation for CEDs within the proposal. We consider some positive and negative implications of this aspect of the proposal that might warrant further consideration.     

Predicting TIF Distress: A Statistical Analysis of Tax Incremental Finance Districts in Wisconsin

Tax incremental financing (TIF) is the most prevalent, complex, and controversial economic development tool used by local governments today. TIF proponents argue that TIF increases stagnant property values, but critics suggest that TIF is an unnecessary subsidy and distorts real estate markets. Although case studies offer evidence supporting both sides, the argument begs an important question: because some TIF districts are successful and others unsuccessful, is there a way to predict TIF distress and help prevent TIF failure? Practitioners and academics highlight the importance of pre-implementation planning and strict monitoring of TIF performance. However, even with the most strident planning and monitoring, TIF districts still often fail. Utilizing a dataset of all 1,080 active TIF districts in Wisconsin, this paper adopts techniques popular in assessing local government fiscal health by focusing on indicators such as budgetary solvency and macroeconomic conditions in predicting TIF distress.