A contribution to the discussion of probabilities and human hair comparisons

The paper by Gaudette and Keeping on "An Attempt at Determining Probabilities in Human Scalp Hair Comparison" in the Journal of Forensic Sciences (Vol. 19, No. 3, July 1974, pp. 599-606) has provoked considerable controversy. This paper highlights two of the sources of the controversy and shows how the probability, 1/4500, quoted by Gaudette and Keeping should be treated with caution. The necessity of the use of a likelihood ratio statistic is described. It is suggested that the hair examination form resulting from the responses to the questionnaire recently distributed by the authors and also the discussions at Quantico (Proceedings of the International Symposium on Forensic Hair Comparisons, 25-27 June 1985, Quantico VA) should be used to facilitate the collection of the data which will be necessary to enable a likelihood ratio statistic to be estimated effectively.     

The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980

Employment figures from the Mexican national census are the basis for this analysis of employment changes in Mexico between 1895-1980. The work identifies longterm trends in the volume and composition of employment and distinguishes 3 main periods in the evolution of employment. The first period, from 1895-1930, marked the end of a stage of development lasting until about 1907 in which sufficient internal stability was achieved to support Mexico's entrance into the world market. Export of agricultural products and metals was the principal focus of economic growth. Construction of roads and railroads was a central element of progress. But economic and social problems manifested in regional disparities, concentration of wealth, conflicts between economic sectors, low pay for agricultural workers, and fierce social and political control characterized the period and culminated in the Mexican Revolution. After the first decade of the 20th century the ability of the economy to absorb new workers began to decline, and the falling of crude activity rates was not reversed until the 1940s. During the 1920s, total employment increased less than 6%, reflecting a net increase of 403,000 male workers and a decrease of 110,000 female workers. The second major period of employment from 1930-1970 saw the change from an economy based on export of primary products to one based on manufacturing for the internal market. There were 2 subperiods, a stage of transition from 1930-50, the economy registered marked fluctuations, but by the 1940s the consolidation of state power and important reforms permitting expansion of the internal market were factors in an accelerated growth of employment relative to the preceding intercensal period. Despite considerable increases in agricultural employment, the relative share of the agricultural sector in total employment was beginning a decline. Employment registered the highest growth rates of the century in the 1940s and exceeded population growth. The increased employment was explained by accelerated growth and accumulation in manufacturing along with increases in commerce, services, construction, and agriculture. From 1950-70, industrial development was consolidated, and there was a generalized expansion in employment in manufacturing as well as in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The economy was less able to absorb new labor, primarily because the agricultural sector had reached the limits of expansion in both the commercial and peasant sector by 1965, at just the time that population growth was most rapid. During the 1970s, manufacturing employment grew less rapidly because of modernization, almost exclusive orientation to the internal market which limited expansion, and scarcity of funds for importing capital goods. A new model of growth will be needed if Mexico is to escape its present stagnation, and a significant share of economic activity will need to be oriented to export. Until this process is consolidated, the national economy is unlikely to show signs of sustained recuperation.     

Reviews

Alexander Yanov, The drama of the Soviet 1960s: a lost reform. Institute of International Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 1984, 141 pp. $8.50.

Karen Dawisha, The Kremlin and the Prague Spring. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1984, xiv + 426 pp. £22.50.

Christer Jônsson, Superpower: Comparing American and Soviet Foreign Policy. London: Francis Pinter, 1984, viii + 248 pp. £18.50.

Joseph Nye, The Making of America's Soviet Policy. Yale University Press, 1984, £20.00.

Alexander Dallin, Black Box: KAL 007 and the superpowers. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1985, xii + 130 pp. £14.25.

Alex Kozulin, Psychology in Utopia. Toward a Social History of Soviet Psychology, Cambridge Massachusetts, London: The MIT Press, 1984, xi + 179 pp. £16.65.

Timothy Edward O'Connor, The Politics of Soviet Culture. Anatolii Lunacharskii. Ann Arbor: UMI Research Press, and London: Bowker Publishing Company, 1984,193 pp. £35.50.

Alexander Vucinich, Empire of Knowledge. The Academy of Sciences of the USSR (1917–1970). Berkeley and London: University of California Press, 1984, x + 484 pp. £23.95

Lawrence Badash, Kapitza, Rutherford, and the Kremlin. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 1985, xi + 129 pp. £20.00.

Mark Popovsky, The Vavilov Affair. Archon, Hamden, Connecticut, 1984, viii + 216 pp. £21.40.

Timothy Dunmore, Soviet Politics 1945–53 London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1984, vi + 167 pp. £20.00.

George Ginsburgs, The Citizenship Law of the USSR, Law in Eastern Europe No. 25 (general editor F. J. M. Feldbrugge). The Hague, Boston, Lancaster: Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, 1983, 406 pp. £50.00.

R. F. Miller and F. Féhér (eds.), Khrushchev and the Communist World. London and Canberra: Croom Helm and Totowa, New Jersey: Barnes and Noble Books, 1984, 243 pp. £15.95.

Michael Haynes, Nikolai Bukharin and the Transition from Capitalism to Socialism, Beckenham, Kent: Croom Helm Ltd., 1985, vii + 136 pp. £14.95.

Bernd Bonwetsch (ed.), Zeitgeschichte Osteuropas als Methoden‐ und Forschungsprob‐lem. Osteuropaforschung: Schriftenreihe der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Osteuropa‐kunde, Band 13. Berlin: Verlag Arno Spitz, 1985, 192 pp. DM 28,00.

Marie Lavigne, Economie Internationale des pays Socialistes, Paris: Armand Colin, 1985, 255 pp.

Marcel Drach, La crise dans tes pays de l'Est, Paris: Editions La Découverte, 1984, 127 pp. FF. 31.

L. Csaba, Kelet‐Europa a Világgazdaságban. (Eastern Europe in the World Economy), Budapest: Közgazdasági és Jogi Könyvkiadö, 1984, 316 pp., bibliography but no index.

Michael Shafir, Romania: Politics, Society and Economics, London: Frances Pinter, 1985, xvii + 232 pp. h/b £18–50, p/b £6.95.

Nicholas G. Andrews, Poland 1980–81. Solidarity versus the Party, Washington: National Defense University Press, 1985, xii + 351 pp.

Peter Raina, Poland 1981. Towards Socialist Renewal, London: George Allen & Unwin, 1985, vii + 472 pp. £20.00.

Stephen D. Kertesz, Between Russia and the West: Hungary and the Illusions of Peacemaking 1945–1947, London and Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, 1985, xix + 299 pp. £18.95.

Mårta‐Lisa Magnusson (ed.), Bogen i Sovjet. Fra forfatter til laeser, Esbjerg: Sydjysk Universitetsforlag, 1985, 106 pp. p/b, 74–75 DK Kr.

Margit Nielsen, Udenrigsøkonomi i Østeuropa—tilpasning eller krise? Esbjerg: Sydjysk Universitetsforlag, 1985, 99 pp. p/b, 65–00 DK Kr.     

Unusual hanging deaths

Four unrelated hanging deaths involving young white males, all in enlisted status in the United States military, are presented. Taken in a military context, one scene served as a suicide note equivalent with the unmistakable message of extreme defiance toward military regulations. In two cases, the elaborate attire of the decedents could have lead to the misclassification of the manner of death if investigative information had not been considered. Extensive background investigation and review of medical records in the fourth case disclosed that the victim had an eight- to ten-year history of compressing his neck to cause unconsciousness. He left an extensive suicide note in which he concluded that "hanging would be good." Each case has certain unique features, as a group, the cases all demonstrate a continuum from obvious suicide to cases where the manner of death is, at first, equivocal.     

An unusual shotgun injury pattern produced by an intermediate target

Discharge of a shotgun with a shotgun casing in its muzzle as a "dust cover" produced a pattern of injuries suggestive of combined intermediate- and distant-range wounds.     

The "empty heart" sign

Approximately 15% of victims of instantly lethal central nervous system trauma have an empty or nearly empty heart at autopsy. This article defines and discusses the "empty heart" sign.     

Growth behavior of the blue blowfly Calliphora vicina maggots

Fifty-three clusters of blowfly eggs of the genus Calliphora vicina were observed in the laboratory up to the hatching stage under reproducible and virtually field-like conditions. Rearing the larvae was then continued up to pupation, the larval growth in length being recorded several times a day. As the object was to study the dependence of the larvae increase in length on the temperature conditions in vitro, the substratal humidity and food supply were kept unchanged during the entire study. The temperature ranged from 6.5 degrees C to 35 degrees C, with the temperature for the individual cluster kept constant during the entire developmental process. Data on about 5500 measured larvae were statistically evaluated. The basic result established was that in the case of the blowfly of the genus Calliphora vicina in vivo, all developmental stages relevant to the entomologic determination of the time of death depend on the temperature conditions: (1) the duration of the egg stage increases with decreasing temperature; (2) the speed of larval growth is slower at lower temperatures; (3) the maximal larval length is reached earlier at higher temperatures; (4) the mean value of maximal length decreases with increasing temperature; (5) larvae under all temperature conditions decrease in size after having reached their maximal length, the decrease in length being more rapid at higher temperatures; (6) constant temperatures over 30 degrees C lead to "stunted forms" which do not pupate and die; (7) constant temperatures under approximately 16 degrees C after the peak of growth has been reached inhibit the readiness to pupate, which causes the larvae to fall into a stationary state of rest, which will be interrupted only when the temperature is raised and resumption of the metamorphosis is thus induced. To allow rapid reconstruction of the larval age in general practice, the established growth data were set out in the form of a diagram designated isomegalendiagram, which permits temperature-fluctuation-related entomologic determination of the time of death with a maximum degree of accuracy.