Unemployment, Economic Theory, and Property Crime: A Note on Measurement

Drawing on rational choice theory, this study considers how best to measureunemployment within the context of the unemployment–property crimerelationship. Specifically, we use ARIMA techniques to examine the relativeefficacy of using the conventional Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)unemployment rate and two alternative measures of the demand for labor aspredictors of monthly counts of U.S. property offenses for the years 1982through 1996. The bivariate time series analyses indicate that while theBLS unemployment rate exhibits null effects, the number of individualsunemployed for 15 weeks or more and the capacity utilization ratesignificantly affect the level of property crime. The implications ofthese results are discussed.     

The creation of neo-liberal corporate bias in transnational medicines control: The industrial shaping and interest dynamics of the European regulatory state

Abstract. Drawing on the political theories of corporatism, neo–liberalism and pluralism, and on comparative empirical research in Brussels, Germany, Sweden and the UK, this article conceptualises the nature of Europeanised medicines regulation. It argues that a marketisation of regulation has been established in the European Union as a result of competition between national regulatory agencies for 'regulatory business' from the pharmaceutical industry. In the pharmaceuticals sector the Europeanised regulatory state is a product of three key factors: (a) the European Commission's commitment to an 'efficiency' regime which would meet the political objectives of a single European market and the commercial agendas of transnational pharmaceutical companies, (b) the endemic corporate bias associated with medicines regulation in the most influential member states, and (c) the considerable success of neo–liberal politics across a number of major member states, including Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom.     

Social Connections,Trajectories of Hopelessness,and Serious Violence in Impoverished Urban Youth

Youth living in impoverished urban neighborhoods are at risk for becoming hopeless about their future and engaging in violent behaviors. The current study seeks to examine the longitudinal relationship between social connections, hopelessness trajectories, and subsequent violent behavior across adolescence. Our sample included 723 (49% female) African American youth living in impoverished urban neighborhoods who participated in the Mobile Youth Survey from 1998 through 2006. Using general growth mixture modeling, we found two hopelessness trajectory classes for both boys and girls during middle adolescence: a consistently low hopelessness class and an increasingly hopeless class with quadratic change. In all classes, youth who reported stronger early adolescent connections to their mothers were less hopeless at age 13. The probability of later adolescent violence with a weapon was higher for boys and was associated with the increasingly hopeless class for both boys and girls. Implications for new avenues of research and design of hope-based prevention interventions will be discussed.     

中国与拉美社会保障比较:传统文化与制度安排——提高覆盖率的角度

欧洲、拉丁美洲和中国的文化与社会保障改革取向存在差异性.与西欧相比,拉美和中国之间的相似性更多一些,例如低收入的经济背景、积累性质的融资模式、个人账户的引入等,其改革效果也存在一些相似性.例如覆盖面狭小等.中国和拉美社保覆盖面狭小的原因在于传统文化存在较大差异性,即拉美缺乏储蓄文化,其社保改革之后"对等原则"的引入并没有为提高覆盖率和遵缴率作出很大贡献,但对中国住房公积金制度进行分析和对比之后发现,在浓厚的储蓄文化背景之下,中国社保覆盖率狭小的原因正是由于缺乏"对等原则"因素所致.不同文化背景下,社保制度中"对等原则"效果截然相反.鉴于此,本文认为,如果将目前统账结合制度改造为大账户制或名义账户制,将个人和单位缴费完全划入个人账户,覆盖率和遵缴率就会像住房公积金那样立即提高,实现应保尽保.     

FDI and the costs of contract enforcement in developing countries

This article examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and host countries’ contracting institutions, the rule systems which govern commercial transactions between private actors. Given their liability of foreignness and costly exit options, we suggest that multinational corporations have incentives to influence the formal contracting environment in host countries. Further, host governments are more likely to respond to multinationals’ wishes when they are more dependent on foreign capital markets. We draw on the World Bank’s Lex Mundi dataset (Djankov et al. 2003) on micro-level contracting environment for private actors. Our analysis of a cross section of 98 developing countries suggests that FDI is associated with lower contract enforcement costs, particularly when the host country is more indebted.     

Considering the council’s counsel: Advisor influence and political change

Comment on paper by Brian Goff regarding the influence of political advisors on observable measures of political outcomes.     

Strategic entry deterrence and terrorism: Theory and experimental evidence

Using a two stage rent-seeking framework, we present a simple model of strategic entry/terrorism deterrence and test the model using laboratory experiments. Our contest success function highlights the potential for strategic spillovers. The theory illustrates that, relative to a cooperative outcome, negative externalities lead to over-spending on deterrence and positive externalities lead to under-spending on deterrence. Our experimental results are broadly consistent; subjects in the negative externality treatment had higher expenditures. In contrast to theoretical predictions, participation decisions, while primarily driven by the probability of winning a contest, were influenced by a subject’s ability to participate in multiple contests.