Elemental tests of the traditional rational voting model

A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bell-curved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of union certification elections, which often end in ties, yields exacting, lucid tests of the theory. Voter turnout is strongly related to election closeness, but not in the way predicted by the theory. Thus this relation is generated by some other mechanism, which is indeterminate, as no existing theory explains the nonlinear patterns of turnout in the data.     

Administering the Overseas Vote

While there is a growing academic literature about mail-in ballots, there has been no serious academic research to date on overseas voters, even though the counting of overseas military ballots figured into the 2000 presidential election controversy. The participation of nearly 4 million overseas voters, both civilian and military, is governed by the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act. The authors examine the reported perceptions of military and nonmilitary voters covered by this legislation using two surveys funded by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, focusing on their perceptions of electronic means of transmitting voting materials. The authors find that civilian overseas citizens have a harder time registering and voting than military overseas citizens; that the key factor is the timely transmission of voting materials; and that, despite privacy concerns, electronic transmission of voting materials is viewed favorably.     

Trending economic factors and the structure of Congress in the growth of government, 1930–2002

We investigate the role of Congress in the growth of federal public expenditure since 1930, building on the work of Kau and Rubin (Public Choice, 113:389–402, 2002). The model incorporates majority party strength and the extent of party control of Congress in addition to the median ideological position of elected representatives. We first provide estimates of the relative importance of the state of Congress and of trending supply and demand-side economic factors in the evolution of federal spending. The resulting models are then used to simulate the consequences of the radical and historically unprecedented shift to the right of Congress in 1994/95.     

Close But Not Close Enough

The authors comment on an earlier aritice in Society by Eugene Goodheart and offer a novel hypothesis about the origins of religion.

War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization

Democratization reduces the risk of war, but uneven transitions toward democracy can increase the probability of war. Using country-level data on democratization and international war from the period 1875–1996, we develop a general additive statistical model reassessing this claim in light of temporal and spatial dependence. We also develop a new geopolitical database of contiguities and demonstrate new statistical techniques for probing the extent of spatial clustering and its impact on the relationship between democratization and war. Our findings reaffirm that democratization generally does reduce the risk of war, but that large swings back and forth between democracy and autocracy can increase war proneness. We show that the historical context of peace diminishes the risk of war, while a regional context plagued by conflict greatly magnifies it.     

Partnering for e‐government: Challenges for public administrators

Abstract: Governments around the world are spending huge sums of money implementing electronic government. Public‐private partnerships with information and communication technology firms have emerged as the vehicle of choice for implementing e‐government strategies. Concerns are raised about the capacity of governments to manage these complex, multi‐year, often multi‐partner relationships that involve considerable sharing of authority, responsibility, financial resources, information and risks. The management challenges manifest themselves in the core partnering tasks: establishing a management framework for partnering; finding the right partners and making the right partnering arrangement; the management of relationships with partners in a network setting; and the measurement of the performance of e‐government partnerships. The article reviews progress being made by governments in building capacity to deal with these core partnering tasks. It concludes that many new initiatives at the central agency and departmental/ministry level seem designed to centralize control of e‐government projects and wrap them in a complex web of bureaucratic structures and processes that are, for the most part, antithetical or, at best, indifferent to the creation of strong partnerships and the business valuethat e‐government public‐private partnerships promise.     

Housing Management and the Comprehensive Housing Model in Hong Kong: A case study of colonial influence

This article contains an examination of the way in which the largely British model of professional comprehensive housing management became important in Hong Kong. It shows how a comparatively small number of pioneers, mainly women who were followers of the principles of Octavia Hill, a philanthropic social reformer who developed her ideas in 19th century London, had a considerable influence in the very different environment of Hong Kong. An examination of the comparatively small amount of literature on the housing management profession is followed by a detailed analysis of the way in which the housing management profession has developed in Hong Kong. A review of the origin of public housing programmes in Hong Kong highlights the influence which housing professionals had when the housing administration was radically restructured at the time of the formation of the Hong Kong Housing Authority in the early 1970s.