The fate of governing parties in times of economic crisis

The severity of the recent economic crisis in Europe provides an opportunity to test some of the conventional hypotheses about the effects of economic adversity on election outcomes in a broadly comparative context. In 16 of 27 elections held in EU member countries between 2008 and the end of 2011, incumbent governments went down to defeat. In many of the cases in which a governing party was defeated, a government of the center-left was replaced by one of the center-right. The average level of decline in the share of the vote for governing parties (−8.1%) however was surprisingly modest in comparison with previous election cycles. Nevertheless, the results were devastating for governing parties in a number of instances, such as Ireland or Hungary. We also consider the relative merits of retrospective and prospective interpretations of these outcomes in the light of contextual effects arising from factors such as globalization and institutional clarity as these affect perceptions of the responsibility of governing parties or coalitions in coping with the crisis in the domestic political environment.     

A review essay

Abstract

When Kiyoshi Kojima first articulated the concept of a Pacific Free Trade Area in 1966, he anticipated that the removal of tariffs among the developed nations of the Pacific could encourage economic growth among the less developed nations of the Pacific Basin if the developed countries made certain structural adjustments. He particularly recommended that the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan import more primary materials from the developing countries of Asia and Latin America rather than from each other, and that the developed countries lower any restrictions on the import of light manufactured goods from the developing nations.     

Postcards and Propaganda: Cartographic Postcards as Soft News Images of the Russo-Japanese War

Postcards are an important resource that has been largely overlooked in mainstream research on historical events, political attitudes, perceptions, propaganda, and communication. Accordingly, this article expands the relevance of the postcard from social artifact to historical document embodying social and political messages. In particular, the article examines the images and representations used in cartographic postcards during and after the Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905). Not only is this relevant to the study of political propaganda, but also for the study of historic media, popular consumption of political messaging, and as an additional tool with which to study the history of international politics and communication. The political history leading up to the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese War is briefly covered. Images of cartographic postcards are examined in context of the conflict, with the goal of gaining a greater appreciation for postcards as a form of early “soft news” visual mass media. As such, this is a means by which imperial attitudes and public opinion were shaped. Recommendations are made to broaden the use of postcards as primary documents, especially as these cards are enjoying an online renaissance (e.g., collecting, displaying, discussing). They are valuable in augmenting a variety of research agendas and are fruitful for the study of early modern mass media, social history, public discourse, and political messaging with regard to soft news and public opinion.     

Loading the policy blunderbuss

Ending Gang and Youth Violence: A Cross Governmental Report including further evidence and good practice case studies (EGYV) (HM Government, 2011) describes the Coalition's attempts to develop a coordinated policy strategy to reduce gang related and more general youth violence. The report extends to 84 pages, 23 headline measures, and refers to over 60 reputedly relevant initiatives. Amidst some refreshingly honest admissions (‘We understand that you can't arrest your way out of the problem’), significant emphases are placed on locally coordinated multi-agency action, and on an articulated strategy of family level prevention, individual intervention and police suppression. While the report evidences much good-will, good practice and hard work, at least three core problems relating to expertise, evidence and moral vision critically undermine its strategic coherence; and we contend that the measures flowing from it will, at best, produce weak evidence of no overall effect, and at worst, prove counter-productive.     

Capital Offenders in Texas Prisons: Rates, Correlates, and an Actuarial Analysis of Violent Misconduct

This study analyzed the records of 136 recently incarcerated capital murder offenders in the initial phase (M = 2.37 years, range = 6-40 months) of their life sentences in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Prevalence rates of institutional violence were inversely related to severity: potentially violent misconduct (36.8%), assaultive violations (14%), serious assaults (5.1%), and homicides (0%). Consistent with prior studies, factors correlated with assaultive misconduct included age (inversely), prior prison confinement, and concurrent robbery or burglary in the capital offense. A simplified Burgess scale entitled the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison-Capital (RASP-Cap) was moderately successful in identifying varying levels of improbability of committing violence-related misconduct however defined (AUC = .715-.766).     

The price of non-compliance with the Kyoto Protocol: The remarkable case of Norway

One of the ways to induce compliance is for an international enforcement mechanism to authorize the use of punitive consequences against a non-compliant country. However, such consequences should not cause significant damage to other (compliant) countries. The compliance mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol fails to meet this requirement. The Enforcement Branch of the Compliance Committee is instructed to impose punitive consequences on a non-compliant country that will have considerable adverse welfare effects for compliant countries as well. Using a numerical model, we show that in the case of Norway, the welfare effects can actually be worse if another country is punished than if Norway itself is punished.

Molecular Assay for Screening and Quantifying DNA in Biological Evidence: The Modified Q‐TAT Assay*

Abstract: A method is described for the quantitation of total human and male DNA. Q‐TAT utilizes end‐point, multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the amelogenin and SRY loci to quantify DNA and incorporates a cloned nonhuman template to detect PCR inhibition. Standard curves of fluorescence from amelogenin or SRY amplicons were generated from amplification of known amounts of NIST traceable SRM‐female or SRM‐male DNA. Curves showed good linearity up to 500 pg of SRM‐template (R² > 0.99) and reliably estimated total and male DNA content in casework samples. The nonhuman pRL_null template included in each PCR was a sensitive indicator of known PCR inhibitors including EDTA, hemin, blue denim dye, and humic acid. Finally, the SRY amplicon was a sensitive indicator of male DNA and, in mixtures, could reliably estimate male DNA present in an excess of female DNA. The Q‐TAT multiplex is a reliable quantitation method for forensic DNA typing.     

The Future of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in the DSM

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), added to the DSM nosology in 1980, has become a widely used and studied psychiatric diagnosis—though it has also been the subject of much criticism and controversy. In this paper, we review and discuss a number of issues related to the future of PTSD within the DSM, including the conceptual basis of the disorder, summary of proposed changes to DSM-V, the empirical basis for or against specific disorder criteria, forensic implications, and conclusions and recommendations regarding the future of the disorder in DSM. Overall, the current proposed changes for DSM-V represent a modest improvement over DSM-IV criteria, though they are incremental and relatively minor in nature. As such, they are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on prevalence rates, treatment approaches, or forensic applications of the disorder—and the disorder, as defined, remains problematic in many ways. The empirical data on latent structure of responses to traumatic and general life stressors seem to indicate that perhaps PTSD should be replaced by a dimensional general stress response disorder within the DSM system.     

Tippins and Wittman Revisited: Law,Social Science,and the Role of the Child Custody Expert 14 Years Later

It has been 14 years since Tippins and Wittmann ( 2005 ) voiced concern for the overreaching role the expert may play in matters of family law. This article sets their levels of inference within the context of the culture of both law and social science. We examine how inferences are impacted by the relative emphasis child custody experts give to the five stakeholders involved in child custody evaluations (CCEs): courts, lawyers, parents, children, and professional governing bodies. Acculturation of the assessor to law contributes to more egregious inferences, versus the more modest ones Tippins and Wittmann advocated. How evaluators prioritize stakeholders shapes their opinion and methodology. We offer an expanded perspective that views how their levels of inference are manifest in reports, methodology, and recommendations and the influence of the culture of law and the mindset of the clinician. We hope to encourage clinicians to find ways to operationalize clinical humility, assume their proper role, and remain true to their master identity as licensed mental health professionals and their proper sphere of authority.