The End of the Age of Empire

The article was adapted from a keynote address given at the conference “1989 and Beyond” at the New School for Social Research, New York City, April 2008.     

Twenty Years of Maturing: Slovak Women Exploring the Frontiers of Democracy

The author analyzes Slovakia's road to democracy since the Velvet Revolution of 1989 and pays special attention to the changes in women's position in the society. In the first section, she outlines crucial transition challenges and milestones. The second section, central to the study, shows the last two decades in gender perspective. It starts by explaining women's lukewarm attitudes toward gender issues both during socialism and at the threshold of the new era. The chapter discusses women's persistent marginalization in politics, contrasting this with their active role in civil society. It cites enduring inequalities in the labor market as well as the lingering patriarchal division of responsibilities within families and outlines changes in the patterns of family and private life. Although women in Slovakia as well as men have become more aware of gender inequalities, politicians have remained reluctant to embrace a “gender agenda.” A typical feature of contemporary Slovakia is the gap between official documents promoting gender equality, approved under pressure from the European Union, and their implementation in practice. The main actor attempting to close this gap is the pluralist sector of women's nongovernmental organizations that has undergone remarkable growth and diversification. All these elements and processes constitute the setting in which the 2009 presidential election took place. For the first time in Slovakia's history, an incumbent president was seriously challenged by a popular female politician. The third section of the study analyzes the gender dimensions of this unique race.     

The Effects of Neighborhood Context on Exposure to Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Among Adolescents Involved in the Juvenile Justice System: Latent Classes and Contextual Effects

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been identified as a key risk factor associated with a wide range of negative life outcomes, including juvenile delinquency. Much less work has explored whether certain combinations of ACEs, or typologies of trauma, exist, and whether or not these subgroups are differentially associated with certain youth-level and/or community-level characteristics. The current study uses latent class analysis to examine ACE typologies among a sample of over 92,000 juvenile offenders between the ages of 10 and 18 in the state of Florida (52% male, 37.3% White, 46.8% Black, 15.9% Hispanic). Multilevel multinomial logistic regression is used to assess the relationship between both individual- and community-level factors and class membership. The findings suggest that a total of five distinct ACE typologies exist among the sample of juvenile offenders, and age, race, and sex were significantly associated with class membership. Additionally, controlling for individual-level characteristics, community-level measures of immigrant concentration, residential instability, and two separate measures of concentrated disadvantage and affluence were significantly related to class membership. This study contributes to the understanding of adverse childhood experiences, and adds to existing knowledge regarding the relationship between contextual factors and childhood abuse, maltreatment, and trauma. The identification of ACE subgroups with distinct characteristics may help guide prevention strategies and tailor treatment provided by the juvenile justice system.     

Eliminating ill-founded eliminations in handwriting comparison cases.

Document examiners sometimes eliminate writers on the basis of differences which are given too much weight. This article is an attempt to explain some conditions whereby differences in the writing of one individual are misinterpreted as significant differences, when they are actually caused by conditions which are unknown to the examiner.     

Postmortem stability of DNA

High-molecular-weight DNA was recovered postmortem in sufficient quantities from various human organ tissues as well as from blood, although not all organs were equally well suitable. Good DNA stability was found in brain cortex, lymph nodes and psoas muscle over a period of three weeks postmortem. Spleen and kidney showed good DNA stability up to five days postmortem but after longer periods, rapid degradation was observed. Yields of DNA from blood were not consistent because of the non homogeneity of samples. Blood clots were rich with DNA. Generally, the amount of degraded DNA correlated directly with the duration of the postmortem period. However in some cases, DNA degradation was already prominent after a short period. However in some cases, DNA degradation was already prominent after a short period. Case histories showed that high environmental temperature at the site of death and/or infectious diseases prior to death were the main factors for rapid autolysis. Gradual disappearance to complete loss of the long fragments (15-23 kb) was observed in DNA fingerprinting using the minisatellite probe 33.15. No extra-bands were noted, thus excluding erroneous conclusions. However, evidentiary value of older samples was lower.     

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12–13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.     

Growth in Adolescent Self-Regulation and Impact on Sexual Risk-Taking: A Curve-of-Factors Analysis

Adolescent self-regulation is increasingly seen as an important predictor of sexual risk-taking behaviors, but little is understood about how changes in self-regulation affect later sexual risk-taking. Family financial stress may affect the development of self-regulation and later engagement in sexual risk-taking. We examined whether family financial stress influences self-regulation in early adolescence (age 13) and growth in self-regulation throughout adolescence (from age 13–17 years). We then assessed the effects of family financial stress, baseline self-regulation, and the development of self-regulation on adolescent sexual risk-taking behaviors at age 18 years. Using a curve-of-factors model, we examined these relationships in a 6-year longitudinal study of 470 adolescents (52% female) and their parents from a large northwestern city in the United States. Results indicated that family financial stress was negatively associated with baseline self-regulation but not with growth in self-regulation throughout adolescence. Both baseline self-regulation and growth in self-regulation were predictive of decreased likelihood of engaging in sexual risk-taking. Family financial stress was not predictive of later sexual risk-taking. Intervening to support the development of self-regulation in adolescence may be especially protective against later sexual risk-taking.     

Political Fact-Checking on Twitter: When Do Corrections Have an Effect?

Research suggests that fact checking corrections have only a limited impact on the spread of false rumors. However, research has not considered that fact-checking may be socially contingent, meaning there are social contexts in which truth may be more or less preferred. In particular, we argue that strong social connections between fact-checkers and rumor spreaders encourage the latter to prefer sharing accurate information, making them more likely to accept corrections. We test this argument on real corrections made on Twitter between Janurary 2012 and April, 2014. As hypothesized, we find that individuals who follow and are followed by the people who correct them are significantly more likely to accept the correction than individuals confronted by strangers. We then replicate our findings on new data drawn from November 2015 to February, 2016. These findings suggest that the underlying social structure is an important factor in the correction of misinformation.     

Experimentalism in transnational forest governance: Implementing European Union Forest Law Enforcement,Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Voluntary Partnership Agreements in Indonesia and Ghana

Over the past decade, the European Union (EU) has created a novel experimentalist architecture for transnational forest governance: the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) initiative. This innovative architecture comprises extensive participation by civil society stakeholders in establishing and revising open‐ended framework goals (Voluntary Partnership Agreements [VPAs] with developing countries aimed at promoting sustainable forest governance and preventing illegal logging) and metrics for assessing progress toward them (legality standards and indicators) through monitoring and review of local implementation, underpinned by a penalty default mechanism to sanction non‐cooperation (the EU Timber Regulation that prohibits operators from placing illegally harvested wood on the European market). This paper analyzes the implementation of VPAs in Indonesia and Ghana, the two countries furthest advanced toward issuing FLEGT export licences. A central finding is the reciprocal relationship between the experimentalist architecture of the FLEGT initiative and transnational civil society activism, whereby the VPAs’ insistence on stakeholder participation, independent monitoring, and joint implementation review, underwritten by the EU, empowers domestic non‐governmental organizations with local knowledge to expose problems on the ground, hold public authorities accountable for addressing them, and contribute to developing provisional solutions.     

What Has Driven the Great Fertility Decline in Developing Countries since 1960?

Several developing countries are currently experiencing a significant fertility decline, however, academic economists have paid little attention to this transition. This paper seeks to explain the fertility transition by infant mortality, urbanisation, income, culture and educational attainment of females and males using annual data for 92 developing countries over the period 1960–2014. External instruments are used to deal with endogeneity. The results suggest that increasing per capita income, improved female education and increasing secularisation have been important determinants for declining fertility in the developing world.