Incrementalism: Dead yet Flourishing

Charles Lindblom's 1959 essay “The Science of ‘Muddling Through’” is best known for the strategy of decision making—disjointed incrementalism—that it recommended. That famous paper and Lindblom's related work also provided two theories: a critique of the conventional method (the synoptic approach) and an argument for using incrementalism instead. Both are applied theories: they are designed to help solve complex policy problems. Lindblom's negative applied theory has stood the test of time well: the empirical foundations of its main micro‐component (cognitive constraints of individuals) and its central macro‐component (the impact of preference conflict on policy making) have grown stronger since 1959. The picture regarding the positive applied theory is more mixed. As a coherent decision‐making strategy, disjointed incrementalism has almost disappeared. Yet its key elements, the major heuristics identified in “Muddling Through,” are thriving in many applied fields. Intriguingly, they are often accompanied by subroutines—especially optimization as a choice rule—typically associated with the synoptic approach.     

Women Don't Run? Election Aversion and Candidate Entry

To study gender differences in candidate emergence, we conduct a laboratory experiment in which we control the incentives potential candidates face, manipulate features of the electoral environment, and measure beliefs and preferences. We find that men and women are equally likely to volunteer when the representative is chosen randomly, but that women are less likely to become candidates when the representative is chosen by an election. This difference does not arise from disparities in abilities, risk aversion, or beliefs, but rather from the specific competitive and strategic context of campaigns and elections. Thus, we find evidence that women are election averse, whereas men are not. Election aversion persists with variations in the electoral environment, disappearing only when campaigns are both costless and completely truthful.     

The Consequences of Gentrification for Racial Change in Washington,DC

This article looks at the effects of gentrification on the racial composition and transformation of urban neighborhoods. The investigation examines Washington, DC, a city that has undergone significant and contentious racial transformation in the past few decades. To provide for a more robust analysis of how gentrification is associated with measures of racial displacement and diversity, I employ two separate quantitative measures. Using U.S. Census Bureau long form, American Community Survey, and decennial census data, I compare tract-level changes in racial evenness and displacement between gentrifying and nongentrifying areas from 1990 to 2010. The findings suggest that gentrification is associated with the displacement of blacks, but this racial turnover is not consistently associated with greater levels of racial and ethnic diversity compared with nongentrifying neighborhoods.