The communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace: a perspective from the efficient market hypothesis

This study measures patterns following a terrorist attack, from the perspective of market efficiency, to determine the communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace. The Efficient Market Hypothesis postulates that asset prices fully reflect all available information. An important implication is that, because market price changes are determined by new information (or variations in discount rates), it would be highly difficult to “beat the market” with expert stock selection or market timing. Overall, we found that, based on mixed results, terrorist attacks do not lead to a distinguishable pattern in the financial marketplace. Nevertheless, drawing on the Yale Model of Persuasion, these results suggest that terrorists are effective in their communicative goals, and they do lead to a compelling pattern in the proportion of negative returns on the day of the attack. More precisely, terrorists are able to communicate their message on a global scale, thereby resulting in investors adjusting their estimates of value downward. While a possible price correction pattern was found, the lack of statistical analysis performed on the variables, to a certain degree of significance, is a limitation of this study that ultimately renders the results of the study inconclusive.

     

The Participation Paradox of Indigenous Autonomy in Mexico

As indigenous movements around the world seek to strengthen their collective voice in their respective political systems, efforts continue to design political institutions that offer both sufficient local autonomy and incentives to participate in the broader political system. The state of Oaxaca, Mexico, offers a test case of one such effort at indigenous‐based institutional design. This article argues that such reforms often fail to confront the tension between local autonomy and citizen engagement in politics outside the borders of the community. Testing this theory through a comparative analysis of voter turnout rates in municipalities across the state of Oaxaca and the neighboring state of Guerrero, this study finds that the adoption of indigenous institutions at the local level is associated with significantly lower voter turnout rates for national elections.     

Religious Causes of Discrimination against Ethno-Religious Minorities

Most existing large-n cross-sectional analyses of ethnic conflict focus on the behavior of the ethnic minority rather than the behavior of the state. That is, they tend to attempt to predict or explain the level of protest or rebellion in which ethnic minorities engage at the expense of determining the causes for the behavior of the government of the state in which these minorities live. Previous studies have determined that discrimination against minority groups is one of the major causes of ethnic protest and rebellion. In addition, much of the literature on ethnic conflict does not sufficiently deal with the religious causes of that conflict. Accordingly this study focuses on the causes of discrimination with a particular emphasis on the religious causes. This study analyzes two populations from the Minorities at Risk dataset: the 105 religiously differentiated minorities and the 163 minorities that are not religiously differentiated. The results show that religious factors influence the process that leads to discrimination and that the causes of religious discrimination are distinct from the causes of other types of discrimination. In addition, the dynamics of this process are markedly different between the two populations analyzed here. All of this, along with other factors, implies that religion is not merely a reflection of general cultural differences, but rather has a distinct and separate influence on ethnic conflict.     

VAWG mainstreaming in access to justice programmes: a framework for action

If we are finally to end violence against women and girls (VAWG), then this commitment needs to be embedded into all development programmes, regardless of sectorial focus. Women and girls are vulnerable across the board and recognition of this reality is the first step. This article proposes a VAWG mainstreaming framework that addresses how to centralise a VAWG lens into development programming, irrespective of programmatic priorities. The article outlines the need for such a lens and presents the approach through a number of stages. The model is then applied to two programme areas, microfinance and HIV/AIDS, demonstrating its applicability across development issues.     

Bond notes,borrowing, and heading for bust: Zimbabwe’s persistent crisis

“Bond notes” were introduced by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in late 2016 as a local surrogate currency equivalent in value to the US dollar to address the acute currency shortage afflicting the economy. Unsurprisingly, they were overwhelmingly rejected by Zimbabweans, who feared that they heralded a return to the hyper-inflation which had destroyed incomes and savings in 2008–09. Accordingly, faced by a widening budget deficit, the ZANU–PF government turned to alternative methods of creating money with a view to winning the next election: expanding the supply of electronic currency and selling Treasury bills. The resultant financial crisis provided the backdrop to the military’s recent displacement of President Robert Mugabe. However, commitments to economic reform by any new government dominated by ZANU–PF appear unlikely to address Zimbabwe’s persistent crisis.     

Assessing 30 years of Westminster policy advisory system experience

With the 30th anniversary of the policy advisory systems concept on the horizon, it is an appropriate time to reflect further on the concept’s utility, particularly in helping to understand the dynamics of system change and their implications for policy-making. This article provides diachronic analysis of the policy advisory systems in the classic Anglo-Saxon ‘Westminster’ family (Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand). Analysis focuses on five advisory units: the public service and central agencies, partisan ministerial advisers, external consultants, commissions of inquiry, and select special advisory bodies. The principle research aim is to compare these cases to shed light on advisory system dynamics through identification and analysis of shared and country-specific patterns of PAS change. We argue that the leading dynamics of politicization and externalization often used to characterize how advisory systems change masks idiosyncratic country patterns. We argue that differences in the tempo, intensity, and sequencing of advisory unit (de)institutionalization are clear in these cases and that attention to these dimensions of advisory system change add precision to understanding the organization, operation, and evolution of these systems.     

Americans’ Knowledge of Their Local Judges

What do Americans know about their local judges and how do they know it? One of the central arguments in the debate over judicial elections is whether voters know enough about judicial candidates to make an informed democratic choice. The vast majority of criminal and civil matters in the U.S. begin with and filter through the local state courts. But judicial scholars know little about what explains the variance in voters’ knowledge of their courts and judges. This paper draws on survey data from the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to investigate the origins of voter knowledge of local judges. A central finding of this study is that rural voters are a lot more knowledgeable about their local judges than are urban voters, ceteris paribus. This finding has significant consequences for the debate over the ways in which states structure their elections for local judges.     

The dissolution of the large complex households in the Balkans: Was the ultimate reason structural or cultural?

The article examines three village communities—Lekenik in Civil Croatia, Bobovac in the Croatian Military Border, and Orašac in Serbia—to answer the question of why the inhabitants of these villages experienced radical changes in their collective lives and their household organization during the nineteenth century. Complex households had developed in these villages in previous centuries, but a series of political, social, and economic changes, starting in the middle decades of the century, combined to make the continuation of the large complex household unfeasible. In the final analysis, the process of transformation of the large and complex households was rooted in economic change, particularly in the arrival of a monetized economy and mercantile capitalism. The cultural values of complex households still existed after the dissolution of the large complex households, and continued to be important well into the twentieth century.     

Strength in Numbers or Quality over Quantity? Examining the Importance of Criterion Measure Selection to Define Validity Groups in Performance Validity Test (PVT) Research

Mirroring clinical guidelines, recent Performance Validity Test (PVT) research emphasizes using ≥ 2 criterion PVTs to optimally identify validity groups when validating/cross-validating PVTs; however, even with multiple measures, the effect of which specific PVTs are used as criterion measures remains incompletely explored. This study investigated the accuracy of varying two-PVT combinations for establishing validity status and how adding a third PVT or applying more liberal failure cut-scores affects overall false-positive (FP)/-negative (FN) rates. Clinically referred veterans (N = 114; 30% clinically identified as invalid) completing a six-PVT protocol as during their evaluation were included. Concordance rates were calculated across all possible two-and three-PVT combinations at conservative and liberal cutoffs. Two-PVT combinations classified 72–91% of valid (0–4% FPs) and 17–74% of invalid (0–40% FNs) cases, and three-PVT combinations classified 67–86% of valid (0–6% FPs) and 57–97% of invalid (0–24% FNs) at conservative cutoffs. Liberal cutoffs classified 53–86% of valid (0–15% FPs) and 39–82% of invalid (0–30% FNs) cases for two-PVT combinations and 46–75% of valid (3–27% FPs) and 60–97% of invalid (0–17% FNs) cases for three-PVT combinations. Irrespective of whether a two-or three-PVT combination or conservative/liberal cutoffs were used, many valid and invalid cases failed only one PVT (3–68%).Two-PVT combinations produced high FNs and were less accurate than three-PVTs for detecting invalid cases, though variable accuracy was found within both types of combinations based on the specific PVTs in the combination. Thus, both PVT quantity and quality are important for accurate validity classification in research studies to ensure reliability and replicability of findings. Applying more liberal cutoffs yielded increased sensitivity, but with generally higher FPs yielding problematic specificity, particularly for three-PVT combinations.     

How Accurate Are Survey Responses on Social Media and Politics?

How accurate are survey-based measures of social media use, in particular about political topics? We answer this question by linking original survey data collected during the U.S. 2016 election campaign with respondents’ observed social media activity. We use supervised machine learning to classify whether these Twitter and Facebook account data are content related to politics. We then benchmark our survey measures on frequency of posting about politics and the number of political figures followed. We find that, on average, our self-reported survey measures tend to correlate with observed social media activity. At the same time, we also find a worrying amount of individual-level discrepancy and problems related to extreme outliers. Our recommendations are twofold. The first is for survey questions about social media use to provide respondents with options covering a wider range of activity, especially in the long tail. The second is for survey questions to include specific content and anchors defining what it means for a post to be “about politics.”