Democratic Accountability and Retrospective Voting: A Laboratory Experiment

Understanding the incentives of politicians requires understanding the nature of voting behavior. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate whether voters focus on the problem of electoral selection or if they instead focus on electoral sanctioning. If voters are forward‐looking but uncertain about politicians’ unobservable characteristics, then it is rational to focus on selection. But doing so undermines democratic accountability because selection renders sanctioning an empty threat. In contrast to rational choice predictions, the experimental results indicate a strong behavioral tendency to use a retrospective voting rule. Additional experiments support the interpretation that retrospective voting is a simple heuristic that voters use to cope with a cognitively difficult inference and decision problem and, in addition, suggest that voters have a preference for accountability. The results pose a challenge for theories of electoral selection and voter learning and suggest new interpretations of empirical studies of economic and retrospective voting.     

法官非物质利益保障的价值基础与制度建构——以法官角色伦理为视角

本文从法官角色伦理分析出发,分析法官职业的本质,从法律的不确定性与法官角色伦理的博弈中引出法官的任职保障制度对于做好"法律世界中"法官的重要价值意义。文章从确保法官职业身份、树立法官职业尊荣、强化法官职业队伍三方面就法官非物质利益保障的若干问题进行探讨。     

户籍及其超越:北京流动人口服务与管理法治化之门

流动人口服务与管理,是我国"十二五"时期深化体制改革的具有战略意义的一个重要方面,也是北京当前社会管理创新必须面对并在实践中取得突破的一个关键领域。对我国流动人口尤其是北京流动人口问题予以梳理,提出大都市流动人口服务与管理之难,首先在于实有人口底数不清。为了落实和改进各项人口服务与管理的制度和措施,推动流动人口服务与管理进一步迈向法治化之路,在北京流动人口服务与管理的某些方面或某些领域,必须超越户籍问题。     

如何看待美国的软实力

约瑟夫·奈1990年提出"软实力"的概念是旨在回应盛行其时的"美国衰落论"。近年来,随着世界上反美情绪的日益高涨,又出现了"美国软实力衰落论"。实际上,美国软实力的各个组成部分,如美国在科技、教育、人口方面的竞争力,以及在思想、规范和制度安排方面的影响力,均未衰落。真正影响美国软实力的因素是美国民众的情绪和国内分歧。     

Representing China in the South Pacific

Chinese diplomacy, aid, economic interactions and manifestations of soft power have increased the country??s influence in the South Pacific region. By some accounts, China??s influence is already approaching that of traditional stakeholders Australia and New Zealand. In Africa and other regions state-led and private activities in established powers?? perceived spheres of influence has caused concern and inspired particular narratives about China??s motivations. In this article we examine how media discourses in Australia and New Zealand have represented China??s role in the South Pacific. We find that China??s role has been constructed using multiple negative frames, which seek to establish China as unequivocally ??different??. More than being unencumbered by the constraints of public opinion and a free press, China is portrayed as operating in a different moral universe, in which the cold hearted exploitation of vulnerable island nations (often in cahoots with venal island elites) is entirely normal. The article shows how such constructions reveal some of the complex issues involved in Australia and New Zealand??s relationships both with China and other South Pacific nations.     

Exsanguinated blood volume estimation using fractal analysis of digital images

The estimation of bloodstain volume using fractal analysis of digital images of passive blood stains is presented. Binary digital photos of bloodstains of known volumes (ranging from 1 to 7 mL), dispersed in a defined area, were subjected to image analysis using FracLac V. 2.0 for ImageJ. The box-counting method was used to generate a fractal dimension for each trial. A positive correlation between the generated fractal number and the volume of blood was found (R(2) = 0.99). Regression equations were produced to estimate the volume of blood in blind trials. An error rate ranging from 78% for 1 mL to 7% for 6 mL demonstrated that as the volume increases so does the accuracy of the volume estimation. This method used in the preliminary study proved that bloodstain patterns may be deconstructed into mathematical parameters, thus removing the subjective element inherent in other methods of volume estimation.     

Social disorganization, Latinos and juvenile crime in the Texas borderlands

Purpose

Using a time-series cross-sectional design, we estimated the effects of social disorganization on juvenile property crime rates in a predominately Latino, Texas-Mexico border region.

Methods

Eighteen years of data from seven independent sources (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer, Internal Revenue Service, Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, and Uniform Crime Reports) were examined. Counties were utilized as the unit of analysis, and time-series cross-sectional regression models were estimated.

Results

The analysis showed that per capita income was negatively related to juvenile crime in both rural and urban counties. Ethnic heterogeneity was positively related to the outcome in rural, but not urban, counties; while percent foreign-born was negatively related to juvenile crime in urban, but not rural, counties.

Conclusions

The Latino experience, both native- and foreign-born, is important for improving our understanding how economic and social conditions relate to crime. Comparative analyses between distinct geographical environments, such as rural and urban counties, can yield insight how the local context interacts with social disorganization processes.     

Characteristics of morphological manifestations of anaphylactic shock in response to the administration of pharmaceutical preparations encountered in the practice of forensic medical expert-histologist

The authors report the results of a forensic medical investigation of 6 cases of death associated with the administration of pharmaceutical products documented by forensic medical experts of the Russian Centre of Forensic Medical Expertise. The results of the study are compared with the clinical data and summarized using the methods of tanatogenetic analysis. The following main clinical variants of iatrogenic anaphylactic shock (IAS) are distinguished: bronchospastic IAS (n = 1), asphyxic IAS (n = 1), hemodynamic IAS (n = 3), and combined (bronchospastic plus hemodynamic) IAS (n = 1). The signs of all these variants are described allowing for their diagnostics and differentiation diagnostics. These data can be used for the purpose of forensic medical diagnostics and elucidation of the mechanisms of tanatogenesis.     

Biometric ranging of the corpses destroyed at the site of a catastrophe in terms of gender, longitudinal and circumferencial dimensions, and the degree of subcutaneous fat distribution

The quantitative criteria for biometric ranging of destroyed corpses in terms of anatomical localization, gender, longitudinal length, trunk circumference, and the folds of subcutaneous fat are proposed. The wealth of anthropometric materials obtained in the studies of various Caucasoid populations was used to calculate the normative tables for biometric ranging of the decomposed corpses. The proposed technology excludes the subjective assessments for the purpose of such classification at the sites of catastrophes. Moreover, it promotes the accumulation of the variety of valuable information, such as the size of the collar, headwear, and footwear, clothing size and height, and portrait features, that can be used for victim identification.     

Histomorphological features of gunshot injuries to the calvarian bone in nephrogenic osteopathy

This histological study of calvarian bones with the injuries inflicted by a shot from an Osa traumatic non-lethal pistol revealed nephrogenic osteopathy in the preceding period. The pathologically altered bone tissue was damaged by a relatively mild tangential traumatic impact. It is concluded that the possibility of such pathological changes should be taken into consideration in the forensic medical expertise of any trauma including gunshot injuries.