Mirroring Risk: The Cuban Missile Estimation

The Cuban Missile Crisis is by this point well known to all scholars of international politics. Yet, although it has yielded countless lessons over the years, one critical aspect of the case has remained unexamined: the failure of estimation prior to the crisis that led US officials to discount the possibility of a missile deployment in Cuba. This article re-examines US intelligence estimates of the Soviet Union prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis in light of the concept of ‘mirroring risk’, introduced in this article. I present a framework for understanding a class of intelligence failures that are caused by the mis-assessment of how an adversary frames a decision and the risks that they are willing to take. I also present a new two-stage process for understanding how individuals assess the risk-propensity of adversaries in international politics.     

Chinese migration: still the major focus of Russian Far East/Chinese North East relations?

Abstract

In contrast to Sino-Russian relations at the state-level, regional cooperation between the contiguous Russian Far East and Chinese North East has been difficult to achieve, despite the existence of seemingly natural economic complementarities. This article asks why this is the case and argues that one important stumbling block, i.e. negative reactions to Chinese labour migration, has become less problematic. Situating Russian Far East/Chinese North East relations in a regionalist framework the article compares the salience and framing of major issues in regional relations in Chinese and Russian media at the national and regional levels. Contrary to earlier research, the findings suggest that economic and regional development issues, and not Chinese migration into the Russian Far East, are by far the most salient sets of issues on both sides. However, significant differences in the framing of these issues suggest that a convergence of opinion on the desirability of regional cooperation masks contradictory expectations for the direction of regional development.     

The Role of Organisational Culture in the Merger of English Local Authorities into a Single Unitary Authority

Cornwall Council is a new ‘unitary’ local authority which was created following the merger of six district councils and one county council on 1 April 2009. A questionnaire survey based on specific ‘dimensions’ of organisational culture was circulated to staff prior to the merger date. Overall, the results indicated a generally congruent culture characterised by a strong team spirit and commitment to the workplace. A number of differences were observed between the cultural orientations of the seven councils, but there was only weak evidence of differences between tiers of management or professional groupings. The study suggests that the new organisation will have to find ways of ‘unfreezing’ staff from their established ways of thinking and working before changes can be properly embedded. It is recommended that the organisational change process shifts from a top-down ‘planned’ approach to a more ‘emergent’ approach to facilitate learning and organisational development.     

Sex Determination from the Second Cervical Vertebra: A Test of Wescott’s Method on a Modern American Sample*

Abstract: Numerous methods for establishing a biological profile exist; however, many of these methods rely on the recovery of several specific bones or on fragile skeletal elements that are sometimes irrecoverable. It is for this reason new methods utilizing other previously under‐documented bones should be established and tested by the forensic anthropological community. This study tests the accuracy of Wescott’s (J Forensic Sci 2000;45(2)) method for determining sex from the second cervical vertebra. Specimens were drawn from the donated skeletal collection curated at the Hamilton County Forensic Center (n = 57) and the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection (n = 243). Both intra‐ and inter‐observer error rates were low and accurate classifications ranged from 78% (females‐Function 1) to 90.6% (males‐Function 5). Of the five functions, Function 4 achieved the highest overall accuracy, with 260 individuals (86.7%) falling into the correct category. Overall, this method is an effective classificatory tool for sex estimation.     

Criminal Justice and the Liberal Polity

There are several reasonable conceptions of liberalism. A liberal polity can survive a measure of disagreement over just what constitutes liberalism. In part, this is because of the way a liberal order makes possible a dynamic, heterogeneous civil society and how that, in turn, can supply participants with reasons to support a liberal political order. Despite the different conceptions of justice associated with different conceptions of liberalism, there are reasons to distinguish the normative focus of criminal justice from other aspects of justice in a liberal polity. Given the fundamental commitments of liberalism—of whatever variant—there are reasons for criminal justice not to be assimilated to wider conceptions of justice overall. Such assimilation risks undermining some of liberalism's distinctive commitments concerning the standing of individuals as voluntary, responsible agents. Criminal justice is not independent of other aspects of justice but has a distinct focus in a liberal polity.     

Parliamentary Questions,Oversight, and National Opposition Status inthe European Parliament

This study examines when and why members of the European Parliament (EP) use parliamentary questions as a form of fire alarm oversight. We argue that the multilevel nature of the EU political system allows members of the EP from national opposition parties to use parliamentary questions to alert the European Commission to governments' failures to implement EU policy. Representation in the EP provides the only avenue for such oversight for national opposition parties. Using a new sample of EP parliamentary questions, we demonstrate that MEPs from national opposition parties are more likely to alert the Commission to violations of EU law in their own member states. These parliamentary questions may lead the Commission to take legal action against member‐state governments.     

The flight from cool: American men and romantic love in the 1950s

The article uses love letters to re-analyze current notions about men and romantic love in the 1950s. Examining advice literature as well as evidence from fiction and film, European and American historians generally describe the 1950s as an era of emotional “formalization” or suppression. A newly analyzed set of 300 love letters by over a dozen American men suggests a much more nuanced view. Some of their letters support scholarly accounts of “remasculinization” in the 1950s, displaying a hard-boiled, tough-guy quality to compensate for challenges to men's roles in the workplace and family. Other men, however, openly expressed their passions, fears, and other feelings. Since these letters were written to the author's mother, they also suggest new potentials and opportunities for “personal” research. Given the paucity of love correspondence in postwar archives, professional historians might find personal collections useful evidence to study the character and dilemmas of modern romance.     

Social problem-solving correlates of sexual deviancy and aggression among adult child molesters

Cognitive-behavioral treatment programs for adult sex offenders often include training geared to improve a perpetrator's social problem-solving skills. However, little empirical evidence exists to date that documents the relationship between problem-solving and deviant sexual interest or behavior among child molesters. As such, this study investigated the association between problem-solving and two aspects of sexual offending—self-reported sexual deviancy and clinician-rated sexual aggression among a recruited sample of incarcerated child molesters. To minimize the potential for biased self-reports, criterion scores on a lie scale were employed to exclude individuals who might be prone to misrepresent their responses. Results indicated this sample to be characterized by significant deficits on all measures of social problem-solving as compared to the general population. In addition, a series of correlational analyses indicated that an avoidant problem-solving style was significantly associated with past sexual aggression, whereas a negative problem orientation and an impulsive/careless problem-solving style were significantly related to a measure of current sexual deviancy. Of particular interest is the finding that a rational problem-solving style (i.e., the constructive style that involves the systematic application of specific problem-solving skills geared toward identifying an effective solution) was not significantly related to either sexual offending measure. The implications of these collective results are discussed.     

Devolution and party change: Candidate selection for the 1999 Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly elections

The article analyses the candidate selection procedures of each of the major parties in the run‐up to the 1999 Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections, assessing the extent to which they reveal developments in party democratisation and decentralisation on the one hand, and evidence of countervailing central control on the other. Procedural innovations achieved greater openness in candidate nomination and gender balance in candidatures but developments in democratisation were contested and evidence of decentralisation was mixed. Surveys of candidates reveal a perception in the Labour Party that there was too much central influence, although its implications differed in Scotland and Wales. There were perceptions of unfairness and lack of internal democracy in the other parties as well, suggesting in particular a contradiction between central influence in all of the parties’ approaches to list selection and candidates’ expectations of such influence diminishing. Devolution, therefore, released tensions in all parties.     

The art of trolling law enforcement: a review and model for implementing ‘flame trolling' legislation enacted in Great Britain (1981–2012)

The advancement of information and communications technology often results in early adoption, followed by concern over a digital divide, followed by mass adoption and then, inevitably, abuse and misuse of that platform. The most recent of these technologies is social networking services. The early adopters used Friendster and MySpace, and the masses now use Facebook and Twitter. The abuse of people on these platforms was called Cyberbullying in the case of the first two in the 2000s, and Internet trolling in the case of the second two in the 2010s. This paper reviews the legislation enacted in the UK parliament between 1981 and 2012 to deal with these offences, called ‘flame trolling’, for those based on transgress humour, or electronic message faults more generally. The paper presents a framework that includes a ‘Trolling Magnitude Scale’ based on established trolling culture, in order to link the legislative offences to the severities of those faults, as well as to the ability of specific Internet users to tolerate them or otherwise. The paper concludes that by using this framework law enforcement agencies such as the police can apply the laws more fairly and proportionally to protect free speech and at the same time be tough on the causes of electronic message faults in the form of Internet abuse and data misuse.