Changes in illicit cocaine hydrochloride processing identified and revealed through multivariate analysis of cocaine signature data

For nearly 30 years, the methods utilized in illicit cocaine hydrochloride production have remained relatively consistent. Cocaine hydrochloride is typically produced one kilogram at a time. As a result, each individual kilogram is unique and distinct from other kilograms in any particular seizure based on the total alkaloid profile, occluded solvent profile, and isotopic signature. Additionally, multi-kilogram cocaine seizures are often comprised of cocaine from several different coca growing regions. There has been a documented shift in this type of processing based on the recent analysis of a large cocaine seizure in the Eastern Pacific. Signature analyses of samples from 21 kg randomly selected from a 517 kg seizure were virtually identical. Triplicate analyses of each sample via gas chromatography with flame ionization detection, static headspace gas chromatography mass spectrometry, and isotope ratio mass spectrometry were completed. An initial outlier evaluation of the data and an in-depth univariate analysis indicated there was no statistically significant difference among the 21 samples at the 95% confidence interval. Principal components analysis did reveal consistent minor deviations between the samples and known authentic data from the Nariño coca growing region of Colombia. These deviations were only observed on the latter principal components and could be explained by differences in solvent selection during cocaine hydrochloride processing. Chemical analyses in addition to a thorough statistical evaluation suggest a shift in the traditional small-batch method of cocaine processing to a multi-kilogram, high throughput approach.     

A Within-Individual Examination of the Predictors of Gun Carrying During Adolescence and Young Adulthood Among Young Men

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Although prior studies have identified several risk factors for gun carrying, no prior longitudinal studies have examined a comprehensive set of explanatory...     

Crisis,what crisis? A feminist analysis of discourse on masculinities and suicide

High male suicide rates are often constructed as evidence for an apparent ‘crisis of masculinity’. Conversely, ‘crisis of masculinity’ has been used to explain differential rates of male and female suicide in the UK (and elsewhere). We analyse three public cases where male suicide and ‘masculinity-crisis’ discourse are employed together. Our feminist analysis demonstrates that ‘crisis talk’ and male suicide are addressed in divergent ways. We therefore distinguish between ‘progressive’ and ‘conservative’ crisis narratives. Conservative narratives position high male suicide rates as a pernicious outcome of ‘threats’ to traditional gender roles and norms, suggesting the solution is to return to them. Contrastingly, progressive crisis accounts use male suicide to demonstrate that existing gender norms harm men as well as women and argue they should be altered to address male suicide. Conservative narratives often map on to anti-feminist politics, whereas progressive accounts reflect aspects of feminism. There is no neat feminist/anti-feminist distinction, however, as postfeminist ideas are also evident. We argue that, overall, each of the articulations of a ‘crisis of masculinity’ as evidenced by high rates of male suicide reinforces problematic gender politics. Further, in reifying simplistic, dualistic models of gender, they may ultimately constrain efforts to reduce suicide.     

A State Census of Unsubmitted Sexual Assault Kits: Comparing Forensic DNA Testing Outcomes by Geographic and Population Density Characteristics*

A growing number of U.S. cities and states have large numbers of unsubmitted sexual assault kits (SAKs) in police property facilities. Prior research conducted in large urban cities has found that testing these kits yields a sizable number of DNA profiles that meet FBI eligibility for upload to the national criminal DNA database CODIS (Combined DNA Index System) and uploaded profiles return a substantial number of matches to existing criminal profiles in CODIS. It is unknown whether these findings are unique to large urban cities with high crime rates. The purpose of current study was to document forensic testing outcomes from a state census of previously unsubmitted SAKs, which included large urban–suburban centers, as well as smaller cities and rural counties. We inventoried all previously unsubmitted SAKs in Michigan (N = 3422 SAKs) and submitted all kits for forensic DNA testing. A total of n = 1239 SAKs had a DNA profile that met eligibility for upload into CODIS (36.2% unconditional, 56.5% conditional CODIS eligible rate) and n = 585 SAKs yielded a CODIS Hit (17.1% unconditional, 47.2% conditional CODIS hit rate). These rates are consistent with studies from urban areas suggesting approximately half of SAKs tested yield a CODIS profile and approximately half of those uploaded profiles yield a hit. We compared SAK forensic testing outcomes by geographic and population density characteristics, and although rates were often higher in larger metropolitan areas, the obtained rates in micropolitan and rural areas suggest testing is warranted in smaller jurisdictions as well.     

From the School Yard to the Squad Car: School Discipline,Truancy, and Arrest

Since the 1990’s, implementation of zero tolerance policies in schools has led to increased use of school suspension and expulsion as disciplinary techniques for students with varying degrees of infractions. An unintended consequence of zero tolerance policies is that school suspension or expulsion may increase risk for contact with the juvenile justice system. In the present study, we test how forced absence from school via suspension or expulsion and chosen absence from school (truancy) are associated with the likelihood of being arrested. Using month-level data from 6,636 months from a longitudinal study of delinquent adolescents (N = 1,354; 13.5 % female; 41.5 % Black, 33.5 % Hispanic-American, 20.2 % White), we compare the likelihood of being arrested, within individuals, for months when youth were and were not suspended or expelled from school and for months when youth were and were not truant. Finally, we test if these associations were moderated by stable demographic characteristics (sex, race, age, history of problem behaviors) and time-varying contextual factors (peer delinquency, parental monitoring, and commitment to school). Being suspended or expelled from school increased the likelihood of arrest in that same month and this effect was stronger among youth who did not have a history of behavior problems and when youth associated with less delinquent peers. Truancy independently contributed to the likelihood of arrest, but this association was explained by differences in parental monitoring and school commitment. Thus, school disciplinary action places youth at risk for involvement in the juvenile justice system and this may be especially true for less risky youth.     

On creating ethical,productive, and durable research partnerships with police officers and their departments: a case study of the National Justice Database

ABSTRACT

Translational policing science must begin with explicitly communicated research aims and a shared vision for promoting safety. For researchers to approach police departments without first considering the concerns held by officers and their departments at large, is unethical, unproductive, and undermines efforts to secure longstanding mutually useful researcher-practitioner partnerships. In presenting a case study analysis of the multi-method National Justice Database’s recruitment practices, this article highlights some of the challenges that emerge when articulating study aims that hold relevance for public safety; defining theoretically- and solution-oriented research questions; administrative police data collection, analysis, and dissemination; and bolstering human research subject protection protocols for sworn officers who may be justifiably reluctant to participate in social science research endeavors. Implications for ethical policing research practice, fostering collaborative researcher-practitioner partnerships, and leveraging the benefits of data science are also discussed.     

Disaggregating the dependent variable in policy feedback research: an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading System

Policy Sciences - The literature on policy dynamics has long argued for a better conceptualization and measurement of the dependent variable (“policy”), but this fundamental point has...