Projecting crime rates: An age,period, and cohort model using ARIMA techniques

The object of this paper is to generate forecasts of U.S. index property and violent crimes. A three-step procedure is employed. First, the age-specific crime rates are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects. Then the period and cohort effects are characterized using regression and transfer functions, respectively. Finally, these statistical models are used to generate forecasts of the period and cohort effects and hence forecasted values of the age-specific crime rates. The forecasts are compared with existing data and found to be quite accurate. Issues concerning the forecast efficiency of this approach compared to that of others are also discussed.     

The evolution of consent search law

This study examines the legal issues associated with consent searches conducted by law enforcement officers to gather evidence for criminal prosecutions. Through a review of the available case law relating to consent searches the study examines the requirements of a valid consent to search, the issues associated with these requirements, and the relationship between these requirements and the Fourth Amendment. While the paper focuses on Supreme Court decisions, lower court cases are included to illustrate specific points and examine general trends. The reader is given a general understanding of judicial preferences for procedures to be used when effecting consent searches.     

The relationship of values to identity achievement status

Each of 61 college undergraduates was classified as a high or low scorer based on his score on the Simmons Identity Achievement Status (IAS) scale. Ss from each group also ranked Rokeach's terminal and instrumental values in order of importance. The finding of differential ranking of several values by the high and low IAS Ss was congruent with Erikson's statements regarding the constructs of ego identity and identity diffusion and, in addition, seemed to lend further validity to the IAS scale.Received Ph.D. in 1968 from Syracuse University in the area of school psychology. Major areas of interest are socialization; personalty development in children and adolescents.     

SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS

Social Impact Assessments (SIAs), prompted by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and by complementary legislation in certain states, are prepared, ostensibly, to provide expert scientific analyses of human societies; to project the probable consequences to those societies from largescale projects planned for their environments; to suggest ways to mitigate deleterious consequences; and to aid decision makers. The majority of SlAs prepared in relation to proposed energy developments have not been based on expert scientific analysis; omit crucial topics; are seldom based on primary analyses of the communities that will be affected; and often suggest ways to mitigate infrastructural problems (roads, houses and utilities) but l i t t l e else. Interests of the corporations that seek development permits are served by research houses commissioned to prepare SIAs, and by the agencies that approve the SlAs and subsequently grant permits to the corporations to commence with their energy-related projects-the interests of the community residents are not served. The responsibility of social scientists in preparing SlAs for communities that are scheduled for energy-related projects and state-of-the-art analyses of those communities are discussed.