A war of perception: the struggle for legitimacy,influence and power through media in post-2001 Afghanistan

The international community and the Afghan government tout the expansion of domestic media in post-2001 Afghanistan as an indication of progress. However, much of Afghan media has been appropriated by powerful ex-warlords to expand their influence and maintain their grip on power. Jamiat-e Islami and Hezb-e Islami – former jihadist groups who continue to wield considerable political influence within the country – are fierce rivals currently wielding their affiliated media outlets to wage a propaganda war against each other. Each seeks to justify its own right to power and to delegitimize the opponent – ratcheting up tension in a country whose future after 2014 remains precarious and uncertain. This study examines the media campaign of each group, analyzing the salient narratives in their media messages, the intended audiences of these narratives, and what the narratives tell us about the intents and concerns of each group.     

Voting Counts: Participation in the Measurement of Democracy

The measures of democracy commonly used in empirical research suffer notable limitations, primarily the exclusion of participation. As a result, quantitative studies may undervalue the effect of democracy on important social outcomes or misinterpret the aspect of democracy responsible for that effect. We respond by introducing and validating two variants of a new indicator, the Participation Enhanced Polity Score (PEPS), which augments institutional factors with the breadth of citizen participation. We demonstrate, using statistical evidence on democratic persistence, basic needs fulfillment, and gender equality, that no measure of democracy can be considered an accurate representation of its basic character without directly including participation as a core component. Bruce E. Moon is professor of international relations at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. He is the author ofThe Political Economy of Basic Human Needs (Cornell University Press. 1991) and two editions ofThe Dilemmas of International Trade (Westview Press, 1996, 2000). Jennifer Harvey Birdsall is a researcher for a NGO in Geneva, Switzerland. She received her B.A. in international relations and economics from Lehigh University and her M.S. in global affairs from Rutgers University-Newark. Sylvia Ciesluk is pursuing an M.A. at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. She received her B.S. in economics from Lehigh University. Lauren M. Garlett is a geography teacher at Bellamy Middle School in Chicopee, Massachusetts. She received both her B.A in international relations and her M.Ed. in secondary education from Lehigh University. Joshua J. Hermias is associate director of the Global Young Leaders Conference in Washington, D.C. He received his B.A. in economics from Lehigh University and his M.A. in international development from the University of East Anglia, Norwich, England. Elizabeth Mendenhall is pursuing a Masters in International Affairs (MIA) in economic and political development at Columbia University. She received a B.A. in international relations at Lehigh University. Patrick D. Schmid is a Ph.D. candidate in computer science at Lehigh University. He received both his B.S. and M.S. in computer science from Lehigh University. Wai Hong Wong is a research associate at FactSet Research Systems. He received his B.A. in international relations and economics at Lehigh University. We are grateful for the helpful suggestions of Frank Davis, Bill Dixon, Chaim Kaufmann, Rajan Menon, Pamela Paxton, Larry Taylor, and the anonymous reviewers.     

Energy in the World Economy, 1950–1992

Trends in energy production, trade, and consumption during 1950–1992 are analyzed, using nine world regions to highlight both North–South energy trade and the regions' differing patterns of industrialization. Following price shocks in 1973 and 1979, and the price drop of the mid–1980s, the industrialized West adjusted its patterns of energy consumption and imports, and the Middle East changed its level of exports. These relationships suggest a cobweb–type model with an equilibrium price for Mideast oil around $30/barrel. This equilibrium could result in zero growth in energy consumption in the industrialized West but continued growth of GDP as energy efficiency increases. Energy prices that are"too high"reduce GDP growth in the short term—to the detriment of both energy importers and exporters—while prices that are"too low"lead in the long term to high dependency on Middle East oil exports, which, in turn, depends on an elusive and costly political stability in that region. The analysis highlights the central role of North–South energy trade in the world economy, and the close but changing relationship of energy with overall GDP growth.     

Loners,Colleagues, or Peers? Assessing the Social Organization of Radicalization

This study explores the utility of a sociological model of social organization developed by Best and Luckenbill (1994) to classify the radicalization processes of terrorists (i.e., extremist perpetrators who engaged in ideologically motivated acts of violence) who are usually categorized as loner or lone wolf attackers. There are several organizational frameworks used to define or classify violent acts performed by individuals who may or may not have ties to extremist groups, but these studies largely ignore the role of social relationships in radicalization and the extent to which they inform our knowledge of terror. To address this gap, we apply the Best and Luckenbill model of social organization using a qualitative analysis of three case studies of four lone actor or small cell terrorists. The findings demonstrate lone actors are not always true loners in the context of radicalization, and highlights the ways that the Internet and social ties foster the radicalization processes of terror.

     

Personality, antisocial behavior, and aggression: A meta-analytic review

Purpose

Although the relationship between personality and antisocial behaviors has been widely examined and empirically supported in the psychological literature, relatively few efforts to study this relationship have appeared in mainstream criminology.

Materials and methods

The current study focuses on the domains and facets from the Five-Factor Model of personality, and how they are related to antisocial and aggressive behaviors.

Results

The meta-analytic findings indicate that the higher-order traits of Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Neuroticism demonstrate the most consistent relationships with these outcomes. At the lower-order trait level, straightforwardness, compliance, and altruism from Agreeableness, deliberation from Conscientiousness, angry hostility from Neuroticism, and warmth from Extraversion were among the strongest correlates.

Conclusion

The findings are consistent with previous meta-analytic studies, thus providing compelling support for their utility in understanding antisocial and aggressive behavior. As such, they should be afforded greater theoretical and empirical attention within criminology.     

The ties that bind or the ties that break: Examining the relationship between visitation and prisoner misconduct

Purpose

Prior theory and research suggest that inmate visitation can reduce misconduct in prison. However, prior studies have not accounted for the longitudinal and heterogeneous nature of these experiences. This paper addresses this research gap by examining variation in visitation experiences and the relationship between patterns of visitation and misconduct.

Methods

Using a cohort of offenders incarcerated in Florida between 2000 and 2002, group-based trajectory model analyses were used to identify groups of inmates based on their visitation and misconduct patterns. Dual trajectory analysis was used to then assess the extent to which the development of visitation and misconduct patterns are interrelated.

Results

Visitation, and more consistent visitation in particular, is associated with less prison misconduct.

Conclusions

Visitation may reduce inmate misconduct. Implications for future research, theory, and policy are discussed.     

From child maltreatment to violent offending: an examination of mixed-gender and gender-specific models

Research suggests that child maltreatment predicts juvenile violence, but it is uncertain whether the effects of victimization persist into adulthood or differ across gender. Furthermore, we know little about the mechanisms underlying the victim-perpetrator cycle for males and females. Consequently, this study analyzed associations between child maltreatment and a number of adult measures of violent offending within mixed-gender and gender-specific models. Along with main effects, the study directly tested the moderating effects of gender on the maltreatment-violence link and analyzed theory-informed gender-specific mediators. Data were derived from the Chicago Longitudinal Study, a panel investigation of 1,539 low-income minority participants born in 1979 or 1980. Child welfare, juvenile court, and criminal court records informed the study's explanatory and outcome measures. Prospectively collected covariate and mediator measures originated with parent, teacher, and self-reports along with several administrative sources. Results indicated that child maltreatment, ages 0 to 11, significantly predicted all study indicators of violence in the full sample and most study outcomes in the male and female subsamples. In no instance did gender moderate the maltreatment-violence association. Late childhood/early adolescence environmental instability, childhood externalizing behaviors, and adolescent peer social skills fully mediated the maltreatment-violence nexus among males. Adolescent externalizing behavior partially mediated the relationship of interest among females. Evidence also indicated that internalizing processes protected females who had been maltreated in childhood against perpetrating violence later in life. Implications of results are discussed.     

Is problem-oriented policing effective in reducing crime and disorder?

Research Summary
We conducted a Campbell systematic review to examine the effectiveness of problem-oriented policing (POP) in reducing crime and disorder. After an exhaustive search strategy that identified more than 5,500 articles and reports, we found only ten methodologically rigorous evaluations that met our inclusion criteria. Using meta-analytic techniques, we found an overall modest but statistically significant impact of POP on crime and disorder. We also report on our analysis of pre/post comparison studies. Although these studies are less methodologically rigorous, they are more numerous. The results of these studies indicate an overwhelmingly positive impact from POP.
Policy Implications
POP has been adopted widely across police agencies and has been identified as effective by many policing scholars. Our study supports the overall commitment of police to POP but suggests that we should not necessarily expect large crime and disorder control benefits from this approach. Moreover, funders and the police need to invest much greater effort and resources to identify the specific approaches and tactics that work best in combating specific types of crime problems. We conclude that the evidence base in this area is deficient given the strong investment in POP being made by the government and police agencies.