从区域治理的差异性看我国政府回应性的构建——基于我国东中西部的实证比较

政府的回应性关乎政府的公共形象,关乎社会和谐.本文从区域治理的视角,通过对我国东中西部地方政府行为的实证调查研究,利用SPSS软件计算出东中西部的平均分、标准差、差异系数和综合评定值,由此探讨我国政府在公共服务中应对公众诉求中存在的问题,并提出从善治的视角提高政府回应能力的政策建议.     

The Crime Kuznets Curve

Objectives

Criminologists have long studied the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, pointing at different directions. This may reflect the conflicting theoretical predictions on the relationship between these phenomena, but also the prevailing methodological choice which focuses on linear relationships even though nonlinearities are plausible theoretically.

Methods

In this paper, we revisit the empirical relationship between economic conditions and crime by exploring potential nonlinearities. We look at flexible parametric specifications that include up to a cubic term of per capita income (or one dummy for each income quintile) and nonparametric and semi-parametric specifications (such as General Additive Models). Our results are robust to controlling for the standard socioeconomic, demographic, and policy determinants of crime, as well as to including a lagged dependent variable or state and time fixed effects.

Results

We document the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between crime and income within US states for the period 1970-2011. Crime increases with per capita income until it reaches a maximum, and then decreases as income keeps rising. This “Crime Kuznets Curve” (CKC) exists for property crime and for categories of violent crime that can be related to economic appropriation, like robbery, and is less robust for violent crimes not connected to economic incentives. We show that this pattern cannot be explained by correlated changes in economic inequality or by changes in law enforcement.

Conclusions

In addition to providing robust evidence of the existence of a CKC, our findings lay the groundwork for studies exploring the underlying theoretical mechanisms. These should go beyond income inequality or law enforcement, and should explain why the results hold more clearly for property than for violent crime. Our findings and subsequent research to understand the underlying drivers are relevant for policy, as they suggest that violent conflict cannot be tackled solely by the trickle-down forces of economic growth.

     

Credit,crisis and contract enforcement: evidence from the Spanish loan market

A number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that the development of credit markets is affected by the efficacy of enforcement institutions. A less explored question in this context is how these institutions interact with turns in the economic cycle and the impact of different types of legal procedures on credit market performance. This paper fills these gaps by analyzing how differences in the availability of credit and the evolution of non-performing loans ratios may be partially explained by regional variations in the quality of loan contract enforcement during recent periods of sustained growth (2001–2007) and recession (since 2008) in the Spanish economy. This research concludes that a rise in the clearance rate of executions (i.e., when a judge enforces the repayment of a debt) increases the ratio of total credit to GDP. However, the declaratory stage of the procedure (i.e., when a debt is firstly verified by a judge) does not seem to be statistically significant. A possible explanation to this finding is that, throughout the economic cycle, a relevant proportion of the defaults that take place are strategic (i.e., defaults by a solvent debtor). Furthermore, it is observed that, in regions where declaratory procedures are more efficient, less credit is declared as non-performing. The latter effect, however, is only observed after the onset of the “Great Recession” in 2008. This may be related to the increase of non-strategic defaults during a downturn.     

行政刑法视角下行政犯探究——从长春市一则案例引出

行政犯罪作为犯罪的一种,同时也是一种行政违法行为,具有双重违法性。为有效地惩处行政犯罪,其惩罚机制也有其特殊性。我国目前针对行政犯采用的是一种依附性的立法模式,就是有关于行政犯的基本罪状和法定刑都是在刑法典或刑法单行法规中规定的,只是在处罚罚则中对追究刑事责任做出笼统的宣告式表述,这种模式下激发成文法体制下刑法条文的机械化与行政法规灵活性之间的矛盾。针对我国的实际情况,笔者提出独立性的散在型立法方式,即坚持刑法典总则的原则性指导,在行政法律中设置具有独立罪名和法定刑的法律规范。这样有关行政犯的规定就可以不依附于任何其他的法律,直接依据该法规认定行政犯具体罪行的内容,有利于保持刑法相对稳定性的同时兼顾社会生活的发展与变化。     

基于DEA模型的汽车产业集群的效率研究

本文利用数据包络分析法的CCR和BBC模型,对我国长三角等六个主要汽车产业集群及六大汽车企业集团的效率进行了实证分析。结果表明,这六个主要汽车产业集群的效率是不相同的,并由此提出了若干政策建议。     

国际法视野下船舶优先权与相关权利的冲突与衡平

船舶优先权是海商法的特有制度,是国家为了发展航运事业,在调整船舶财产关系时,对船舶的保值和存续起着至关重要的作用,由立法设定的一种优先权的特别形式.在船舶优先权制度的理论研究和实践操作方面,最重要的一项任务就是研究如何解决船舶优先权的效力冲突问题.船舶优先权效力冲突主要涉及船舶优先权之间的效力冲突,船舶优先权与船舶抵押...     

Age estimation by a dental method: a comparison of Lamendin's and Prince & Ubelaker's technique

Lamendin et al. (J Forensic Sci 1992;37:1373) developed a general technique to estimate age of adults at death using two dental features: periodontosis and translucency of the tooth root. Prince and Ubelaker (J Forensic Sci 2002;47:107) modified this method, creating a formula for each sex and for different ancestries, and obtained more precise age estimations. In the present study, the validity of each method was tested in 45 males and 34 females of Spanish Caucasian origin, and a novel formula, based on Prince and Ubelaker method, was specifically developed for a population of mixed racial origin (mestizo) from Colombia, and findings obtained were again compared with those yielded by Lamendin adult dental aging technique. The Prince and Ubelaker method proved more accurate than the Lamendin technique in the Spanish Caucasian population, and our Prince and Ubelaker-based formula was also more accurate than the Lamendin et al. In both populations, the Lamendin method showed a higher mean error in estimations of the age of youngest and oldest individuals. These findings confirm the need to create specific formulas for each human group in order to obtain more accurate age estimates.     

高校创业教育社会经济效果的微观分析

高校创业教育能够有效地培养受教育者的创业精神,提升其创业技能,可以通过产业结构变迁作用于经济发展,可以通过提高受教育者的创业概率而产生福利改善效应.尽管高校创业教育产生了积极的社会经济效果,但它的作用仍有待于得到社会各界的认可.     

十二生肖动物词群的词义分析

汉语中存在大量与十二生肖动物有关的词和相当于词的固定结构,它们是一类特殊的词义类聚。十二生肖动物词群的词义,既源自动物的自然属性,又源自汉民族的神话传说、文学作品和民俗心理。其语义特点是：词义引申借助隐喻手段、意义系统呈现有规律的发散状网络构成、意义与汉民族“托物寓情”的思维模式紧密相关。