The Crime Kuznets Curve

Objectives

Criminologists have long studied the relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical evidence is inconclusive, pointing at different directions. This may reflect the conflicting theoretical predictions on the relationship between these phenomena, but also the prevailing methodological choice which focuses on linear relationships even though nonlinearities are plausible theoretically.

Methods

In this paper, we revisit the empirical relationship between economic conditions and crime by exploring potential nonlinearities. We look at flexible parametric specifications that include up to a cubic term of per capita income (or one dummy for each income quintile) and nonparametric and semi-parametric specifications (such as General Additive Models). Our results are robust to controlling for the standard socioeconomic, demographic, and policy determinants of crime, as well as to including a lagged dependent variable or state and time fixed effects.

Results

We document the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between crime and income within US states for the period 1970-2011. Crime increases with per capita income until it reaches a maximum, and then decreases as income keeps rising. This “Crime Kuznets Curve” (CKC) exists for property crime and for categories of violent crime that can be related to economic appropriation, like robbery, and is less robust for violent crimes not connected to economic incentives. We show that this pattern cannot be explained by correlated changes in economic inequality or by changes in law enforcement.

Conclusions

In addition to providing robust evidence of the existence of a CKC, our findings lay the groundwork for studies exploring the underlying theoretical mechanisms. These should go beyond income inequality or law enforcement, and should explain why the results hold more clearly for property than for violent crime. Our findings and subsequent research to understand the underlying drivers are relevant for policy, as they suggest that violent conflict cannot be tackled solely by the trickle-down forces of economic growth.

     

Credit,crisis and contract enforcement: evidence from the Spanish loan market

A number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that the development of credit markets is affected by the efficacy of enforcement institutions. A less explored question in this context is how these institutions interact with turns in the economic cycle and the impact of different types of legal procedures on credit market performance. This paper fills these gaps by analyzing how differences in the availability of credit and the evolution of non-performing loans ratios may be partially explained by regional variations in the quality of loan contract enforcement during recent periods of sustained growth (2001–2007) and recession (since 2008) in the Spanish economy. This research concludes that a rise in the clearance rate of executions (i.e., when a judge enforces the repayment of a debt) increases the ratio of total credit to GDP. However, the declaratory stage of the procedure (i.e., when a debt is firstly verified by a judge) does not seem to be statistically significant. A possible explanation to this finding is that, throughout the economic cycle, a relevant proportion of the defaults that take place are strategic (i.e., defaults by a solvent debtor). Furthermore, it is observed that, in regions where declaratory procedures are more efficient, less credit is declared as non-performing. The latter effect, however, is only observed after the onset of the “Great Recession” in 2008. This may be related to the increase of non-strategic defaults during a downturn.     

Discrimination and Mexican-Origin Adolescents’ Adjustment: The Moderating Roles of Adolescents’, Mothers’, and Fathers’ Cultural Orientations and Values

Drawing on García Coll et al.’s integrative framework and the risk and resilience model, this study examined the relationships between adolescents’ perceived discrimination and psychosocial adjustment and the moderating roles of adolescents’, mothers’, and fathers’ cultural orientations and values, and adolescent gender in a sample of 246 Mexican-origin families. Using multilevel modeling with data from mothers, fathers, seventh graders (M _age = 12.8 years; SD = .57 year) and older siblings (M _age = 15.7 years; SD = 1.5 years), findings revealed that perceived discrimination was positively related to depression, risky behaviors, and deviant peer affiliations. In addition, parents’ cultural orientations and values and adolescent gender moderated the relationships between perceived discrimination and some indicators of adjustment. These findings suggest that parents’ cultural orientations and values can serve as protective and vulnerability factors in the associations between Mexican-origin adolescents’ perceived discrimination and their psychosocial adjustment.     

Mexican-Origin Adolescent Mothers’ Stressors and Psychosocial Functioning: Examining Ethnic Identity Affirmation and Familism as Moderators

Mexican-origin adolescent mothers are at increased risk for poor psychosocial functioning as a result of various stressors with which they must contend; however, existing theory suggests that cultural strengths may help mitigate the negative effects of stress. As such, the current study examined the associations between cultural and economic stressors and Mexican-origin adolescent mothers’ (N = 207; M age = 16.23 years, SD = 1.0) internalizing and externalizing behaviors, as well as the degree to which ethnic identity affirmation and familism values moderated these links. Adolescent mothers who reported higher levels of discrimination, acculturative stress, and economic stress also reported higher depressive symptoms and greater involvement in risky behaviors. Importantly, ethnic identity affirmation minimized the negative associations between cultural stressors and adolescents’ involvement in risky behaviors, with the associations being weakest among adolescents with high levels of ethnic identity. Familism appeared to serve a protective function under conditions of low levels of discrimination, but not under conditions of high levels of discrimination. Findings are discussed with special attention to the developmental and cultural contexts in which these adolescent mothers’ lives are embedded, and implications for future research and practice are presented.     

Beautiful Scenery and Affectionate People——Reflections on the visit to Republic of Korea with the Chinese Youth delegation

During June 15 -24, I had the pleasure to visit Republic of Korea with the Chinese Youthdelegation sent by All-China Youth Federation.At the invitation of the Ministry of Gender Equalityand Family Affairs of ROK, this visit was arrangedunder the "Youth Exchange Agreement between the Government of the People’s Republic of China and     

对中欧全面战略伙伴关系的新期望

伴随当前国际体系的深刻变化和全球化深入发展的大趋势,中欧关系未来发展走向一直是双方十分关切的重要课题。最近中欧之间一系列高层会晤和战略对话,不仅向外界显示了双方对中欧关系的高度重视,而且进一步明确了对中欧全面战略伙伴关系的新期待。中欧双方近期各自表达的关于中欧关系发展走向的新愿景,既有更加积极性的、相似性的层面,同时也显示了双方仍难以消除的分歧性层面。近期,中国领导人提出以新思维推动中欧关系向更高的水平发展具有重要的现实意义。     

Multiplex short tandem repeat amplification of low template DNA samples with the addition of proofreading enzymes

Abstract:  With <100 pg of template DNA, routine short tandem repeat (STR) analysis often fails, resulting in no or partial profiles and increased stochastic effects. To overcome this, some have investigated preamplification methods that include the addition of proofreading enzymes to the PCR cocktail. This project sought to determine whether adding proofreading polymerases directly in the STR amplification mixture would improve the reaction when little template DNA is available. Platinum Taq High Fidelity and GeneAmp High Fidelity were tested in Profiler Plus? STR reactions alone and in combination with AmpliTaq^® Gold. All reactions included the additional step of a post‐PCR purification step. With both pristine low template DNA and casework samples, the addition of these polymerases resulted in comparable or no improvement in the STR amplification signal. Further, stochastic effects and artifacts were observed equally across all enzyme conditions. Based on these studies, the addition of these proofreading enzymes to a multiplex STR amplification is not recommended for low template DNA work.     

行政刑法视角下行政犯探究——从长春市一则案例引出

行政犯罪作为犯罪的一种,同时也是一种行政违法行为,具有双重违法性。为有效地惩处行政犯罪,其惩罚机制也有其特殊性。我国目前针对行政犯采用的是一种依附性的立法模式,就是有关于行政犯的基本罪状和法定刑都是在刑法典或刑法单行法规中规定的,只是在处罚罚则中对追究刑事责任做出笼统的宣告式表述,这种模式下激发成文法体制下刑法条文的机械化与行政法规灵活性之间的矛盾。针对我国的实际情况,笔者提出独立性的散在型立法方式,即坚持刑法典总则的原则性指导,在行政法律中设置具有独立罪名和法定刑的法律规范。这样有关行政犯的规定就可以不依附于任何其他的法律,直接依据该法规认定行政犯具体罪行的内容,有利于保持刑法相对稳定性的同时兼顾社会生活的发展与变化。