EXAMINING THE GENETIC UNDERPINNINGS TO MOFFITT'S DEVELOPMENTAL TAXONOMY: A BEHAVIORAL GENETIC ANALYSIS*

In recent years, criminological research has observed an increase in studies examining different offending trajectories. Much of this research has been guided by Moffitt's (1993) developmental taxonomy of life‐course persistent offenders, adolescence‐limited offenders, and abstainers. Moffitt (1993) argued that the etiologies of these different pathways could be traced to several biosocial factors, including perhaps genetic factors. To date, research has failed to address this possibility directly. The current study addressed this gap in the literature by examining the extent to which genetic factors explain variance in different offending patterns. Analysis of sibling pairs (N = 2,284; ages spanned between 11 and 27 years) drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) revealed that genetic factors contributed significantly to being classified in each of the different offending patterns. Specifically, genetic factors explained between 56 and 70 percent of the variance in being classified as a life‐course persistent offender across different coding strategies, 35 percent of the variance in being classified as an adolescence‐limited offender, and 56 percent of the variance in being classified as an abstainer. We discuss the importance of integrating genetics into future studies examining offending trajectories.     

Evaluating Polysemy: An Analysis of The New York Times' Coverage of the End of the Cold War

This study examines The New York Times' definition of the end of the Cold War and its portrayal of the social movements that successfully challenged Communist authority in Eastern Europe. The analysis is located within and draws its significance from two research traditions. The first examines the degree to which media texts have a polysemic character, while the second tradition has explored the influence of Cold War ideology on the American news media's definition of international affairs. The Times' definition of the Cold War, its portrayal of the emerging post-Cold War world, and its depiction of collective action produced a text characterized by limited polysemy. This restricted polysemy was a product of the newspaper employing frames that resonated with American political values, excluding or minimizing frames divorced from mainstream American political beliefs, constructing a selective tradition in its definition of the past, and limiting the polysemic implications of particular frames.     

The Rise of the Novice Cabinet Minister? The Career Trajectories of Cabinet Ministers in British Government from Attlee to Cameron

Some commentators have observed that today's Cabinet ministers are younger and less experienced than their predecessors. To test this claim, we analyse the data for Labour and Conservative appointments to Cabinet since 1945. Although we find some evidence of a decline in average age and prior experience, it is less pronounced than for the party leaders. We then examine the data for junior ministerial appointments, which reveals that there is no trend towards youth and inexperience present lower down the hierarchy. Taking these findings together, we propose that public profile is correlated with ‘noviceness’; that is, the more prominent the role, the younger and less experienced its incumbent is likely to be. If this is correct, then the claim that we are witnessing the rise of the novice Cabinet minister is more a consequence of the personalisation of politics than evidence of an emerging ‘cult of youth’.     

REGULATORY OPPORTUNISM: CROSS‐NATIONAL PATTERNS IN NATIONAL BANKING REGULATORY RESPONSES FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

The variation in national regulatory responses to the recent global financial crisis has been considerable. This article explores this variation using new data on conditions in 30 different OECD countries between 2009 and 2012. Using a mixed‐method approach which employs both fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis and logistic regression, we test a number of hypotheses regarding regulatory response patterns in the banking sector. Our findings suggest that while state intervention during the financial crisis was a necessary condition for a significant regulatory response, ‘financialization’, operationalized here as the structural dominance of the financial sector in the economy, plays a more important role. We show that financialization is both a sufficient condition and a good predictor of a significant regulatory response, and point to possible causal explanations for this surprising pattern.     

Commentary: The Logistics of Actionable Intelligence Leading to 9/11

Uncertainty is a hallmark of conflict behavior, and other forms of violence that accompany civil and international war—such as low-intensity warfare, guerrilla, insurgency, and asymmetric conflict—are no exception. This study applied the theory of political uncertainty and complexity theory to the analysis of conflict events during the first three years of the second Iraq war, 2003–2006, limited to the Diyala province. Findings show that neither the time between attacks T or the severity of attacks S (fatalities) have the “normal” (bell-shaped) or lognormal distribution that is characteristic of equilibrium systems. Instead, both variables showed heavy tails, symptomatic of non-equilibrium dynamics, in some cases approximating a power law with critical or near critical exponent value of 2. The empirical hazard force analysis in both cases showed that the intensity was high for the first epoch in both variables (March 2003 to June 2004) but even higher in the latter period from July 2004 to March 2006. Selected policy implications are discussed, including the possibility that real-time or near real-time analysis of the data analyzed through the uncertainty-complexity computational methods would have revealed the gathering momentum of adversarial attacks perhaps in time to have prevented the insurgency.     

Partisan Stacking on Legislative Committees

One aspect of the partisan model for legislative committee development that is rarely studied is the degree to which the majority party seeks to control legislative committees—and, thereby, chamber decisions—via numerically “overproportional” majority party representation on standing committees. This form of “party stacking” is often mentioned in the literature but has received little systematic examination and hypothesis testing. Using data from state legislative committees for all 49 partisan legislatures in the 2003–04 and 2005–06 sessions, we found support for the partisan model: majority party stacking is associated with a slim majority party advantage in a state legislative chamber.     

The Influence of Governors on Veto Override Attempts: A Test of Pivotal Politics

Abstract Using the “switcher” analysis developed by Krehbiel (1998), we examine the ability of Missouri governors to sway legislators on veto override attempts. Our initial results closely mirror Krehbiel's finding that the chief executive successfully achieves influence at and around the veto pivot, but these results change once we take into account the political party of the legislators. Governors are far more likely to influence legislators from their own party, regardless of legislator ideology. Our study provides a rare systematic analysis of gubernatorial influence in the legislative arena, while also contributing to the current debate over preference‐based versus partisan‐based theories of legislatures.