PREDICTING THE RECIDIVISM OF SERIOUS YOUTHFUL OFFENDERS USING SURVIVAL MODELS*

Increases over the past decade in the number and seriousness of crimes committed by young offenders have resulted in renewed interest in control of the serious, violent, or chronic youthful offender. Recent research has established a number of theoretically relevant variables associated with persistent offending and offending defined recidivism. Few studies, however, have examined the individual characteristics that might predict the timing of youthful recidivism. This paper seeks to fill some gaps in knowledge of the serious youthful offender by estimating a multivariate survival model for a sample of youths paroled from California Youth Authority institutions. The model's results are then used to develop risk-assessment profiles for the sample. We suggest that these profiles may provide a reasonable approach for establishing treatment protocols or supervision requirements for paroled youths.     

Oakeshott on the Authority of Law

Abstract. The author explains Michael Oakeshott's distinctive theory of law through an explanation of its notion of authority. He explains the view that modern states are ambiguous, consisting partly of civil associations and partly of enterprise associations . Authority is not a function of people's attitudes to those in power, but exists when a government's action is itself accepted as sufficient reason for unconditional obedience. Authority in this sense cannot exist in enterprise association, commitment to which must be contingent on the fulfillment of purposes common to all participants. But modern states are compulsory associations, different from each. Furthermore, authority could never be justified on a rational choice model, which must always be teleological in character. Because this means there can be no solution to the problem of political obligation, all philosophy can do is describe abstractly the Rule of Law state which does reconcile authority and liberty.     

A FOUR-DIMENSIONAL PERSPECTIVE ON POLICE TYPOLOGIES

Using factor analysis with variables previously assumed to be conceptually bipolar, four dimensions of police juvenile bureaus are suggested: juvenile specialist, community service, local, and organizational orientations. Further analysis shows these four types to have different relationships with legalism, community satisfaction, and personalized treatment of juveniles.     

The Real Deal

THEY had hardly finishedthe last piece of cake whennewlyweds Zhang Jianand Liu Xiaoyan beganwandering Beijing's wideboulevards on a mission to locate theirvery first house. With brand new andhalf-built apartments, and even barefoundations being offered on the market,you'd think they would be spoiled forchoice. But property prices have heliumproperties, and most new apartmentsare out of reach for the average white-collar couple in Beijing, Shanghai,Guangzhou and other big cities in China."…