Business Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Vulnerabilities and Planning for Changes in Water,Temperature, Sea Level,Natural Resources,Health Effects,and Extreme Events

The ability to predict the timing and magnitude of future climate and temperature changes at a regional level has become increasingly important for corporate decision making and enterprise risk management. In the short term, companies could face decisions about acquisitions of water-dependent companies and natural resources or might be planning facilities or operations in communities vulnerable to erosion and flooding, changes in water supplies, and increasing health-care costs. In the intermediate term, companies need to assess these vulnerabilities to determine appropriate insurance coverage, plan for new infrastructure, implement preventative health-care programs, or protect natural resources. A technical approach needs to involve predictive tools that can provide bounding estimates at regional scales. The implications of those changes need to be translated to consequences that can affect specific businesses. Corporations must be cognizant of the uncertainties in this forecasting process and for that reason it is essential to link the likelihood of outcomes with the magnitudes of consequences. This article outlines an approach that is gaining traction as a way to address this complex matter.     

A statistical methodology for the comparison of blue gel pen inks analyzed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

A statistical methodology for the objective comparison of LDI-MS mass spectra of blue gel pen inks was evaluated. Thirty-three blue gel pen inks previously studied by RAMAN were analyzed directly on the paper using both positive and negative mode. The obtained mass spectra were first compared using relative areas of selected peaks using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Euclidean distance. Intra-variability among results from one ink and inter-variability between results from different inks were compared in order to choose a differentiation threshold minimizing the rate of false negative (i.e. avoiding false differentiation of the inks). This yielded a discriminating power of up to 77% for analysis made in the negative mode. The whole mass spectra were then compared using the same methodology, allowing for a better DP in the negative mode of 92% using the Pearson correlation on standardized data. The positive mode results generally yielded a lower differential power (DP) than the negative mode due to a higher intra-variability compared to the inter-variability in the mass spectra of the ink samples.     

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF REFERRAL ISSUES AND “ULTIMATE ISSUE” RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PARENTS IN CHILD PROTECTION CASES*

Mental health professionals frequently respond to requests for clinical information on parents in child protection cases; however, little data exist on the issues precipitating requests or on the controversial practice of offering “ultimate issue” recommendations in forensic clinical reports. We investigated 243 requests for clinical information on parents and 204 clinician reports submitted for use in child abuse and neglect proceedings in a large, urban juvenile court system. We coded 56 objective and qualitative characteristics regarding referral questions, pending legal issues, and four levels of recommendations. We found that the most common referral questions related to service planning, parenting ability, and/or parents' mental health functioning, and the most common pending legal issues were selection or change of a permanency goal and visitation arrangements. Levels of recommendations varied with type of legal decision, in that clinicians always offered direct recommendations for narrow, statute‐based issues (e.g., termination of rights, adoption) and less so for other issues. Community‐based evaluators were more likely to offer direct recommendations than court‐based clinicians. Based on the findings, we offer practice recommendations and directions for further research in forensic parenting assessment.     

SURVIVING BENCH STRESS

The article presents a discussion of judicial stress, along with proposed solutions. The authors gathered information on the topic of judicial stress from judges via a survey and attendance at two Association of Family and Conciliation Courts (AFCC) conventions. Some of the daily stressors endorsed by judges included endless caseloads, severe time limitations, social isolation, lack of privacy, and the weight of deciding the fates of others. It is important for our judges to be provided with ways of relieving and preventing burnout and stress. Proposed bench stress solutions include incorporating the Psychologist Advocate Program into the judicial system and creating specific guidelines for judges to take sabbaticals, which will serve to enhance our judicial system and the entire community.     

HIV service provision for people with severe mental illness in outpatient mental health care settings in New York

People with severe mental illness evidence significantly higher rates of HIV infection than the general population in the United States. Frequently, the only access to health care for this population is through their outpatient mental health care providers. In order to determine how these providers were dealing with the increased risk of HIV infection among this group, a survey of all licensed and certified outpatient mental health care centers in New York State was conducted. The data were compared to a similar previous survey conducted in 1997.     

Unsafe sex: do feelings matter?

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships among self-efficacy for condom use during distress (SE-Condom Distress), self-efficacy related to general HIV prevention skills (SE-HIV), and HIV risk behaviors, attitudes, and knowledge. Two hundred and twenty two adolescents with psychiatric disorders between 13 and 18 years-old participated. Participants completed measures related to HIV Self-Efficacy, HIV Attitudes, and Sexual Behaviors. Self-efficacy for condom use during distress (SE-Condom Distress) was significantly associated with more HIV protective behaviors. Controlling for observed covariates, SE-Condom Distress was the only variable significantly associated with consistent condom use in a multiple logistic regression (OR=2.43). Self-efficacy regarding condom use during affective arousal is closely associated with HIV-related attitudes and behaviors. Clinicians need to be alert to subtle signs of distress as adolescents contemplate safer sexual behavior.     

Does Mode Matter For Modeling Political Choice? Evidence From the 2005 British Election Study

Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75083 e-mail: hclarke{at}utdallas.edu e-mail: mstewart{at}utdallas.edu Paul Whiteley Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester, England CO4 3SQ e-mail: whiteley{at}essex.ac.uk e-mail: sanders{at}essex.ac.uk (Corresponding author) Although political scientists have begun to investigate theproperties of Internet surveys, much remains to be learned aboutthe utility of the Internet mode for conducting major surveyresearch projects such as national election studies. This paperaddresses this topic by presenting the results of an extensivesurvey comparison experiment conducted as part of the 2005 BritishElection Study. Analyses show statistically significant, butgenerally small, differences in distributions of key explanatoryvariables in models of turnout and party choice. Estimatingmodel parameters reveals that there are few statistically significantdifferences between coefficients generated using the in-personand Internet data, and the relative explanatory power of rivalmodels is virtually identical for the two types of data. Ingeneral, the in-person and Internet data tell very similar storiesabout what matters for turnout and party preference in Britain.Determining if similar findings obtain in other countries shouldhave high priority on the research agenda for national electionstudies. Authors' note: We thank the U.K. Economics and Social ResearchCouncil (ESRC) and Gary Williams, Senior Science Manager atthe ESRC, for their generous support of, and interest in, thisproject. We also thank the editor and anonymous reviewers forhelpful comments and suggestions.     

The optimal prize structure of symmetric Tullock?contests

We show that the optimal prize structure of symmetric n-player Tullock tournaments assigns the entire prize pool to the winner, provided that a symmetric pure strategy equilibrium exists. If such an equilibrium fails to exist under the winner-take-all structure, we construct the optimal prize structure which improves existence conditions by dampening efforts. If no such optimal equilibrium exists, no symmetric pure strategy equilibrium induces positive efforts.     

The retirement prospects of divorced women

For decades, policymakers have discussed how to remedy the high poverty rates of older widows. Yet older divorced women are more likely to be poor than older widows, and historical divorce and remarriage trends suggest that in the future a larger share of retired women will be divorced. This article uses the Social Security Administration's Modeling Income in the Near Term (version 6) to project the retirement resources and wellbeing of divorced women. We find that Social Security benefits and retirement incomes are projected to increase for divorced women and that their poverty rates are projected to decline, due in large part to women's increasing lifetime earnings. However, not all divorced women will be equally well off economic well-being in retirement varies by Social Security benefit type.