Science and the climate change regime

Given rapidly increasing losses from extreme climate events, the world community already has a common interest in action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, this common interest is not well served through continued promotion of either mandatory (legally-binding) policies or do nothing policies by various participants in the regime established by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. The common interest would be better served by a third way, comprised of voluntary no regrets policies that are commensurate with the limited political power of the regime and already have succeeded on small scales in reducing vulnerabilities to extreme climate events and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Both mandatory and do nothing policies, as well as the regime itself, have depended upon scientists for political support in the past. But scientists might better serve the common interest of the world community through support of a third way in the future.     

Excretion of Delta9-tetrahydrocannabinol in sweat

The aims of this study were: first, to determine the accuracy of the Cameriere method for assessing chronological age in children based on the relationship between age and measurement of open apices in teeth and, second, to compare the accuracy of this method with the widely used Demirjian et al. method and with the method proposed by Willems et al. Orthopantomographs taken from white Italian, Spain and Croatian children (401 girls, 355 boys) aged between 5 and 15 years were analysed following the Cameriere, Demirjian and Willems methods. The difference between chronological and dental age was calculated for each individual and each method (residual). The accuracy of each method was assessed using the mean of the absolute values of the residuals (mean prediction error). Results showed that the Cameriere method slightly underestimated the real age of children. The median of the residuals was 0.081 years (interquartile range, IQR=0.668 years) for girls and 0.036 years for boys (interquartile range, IQR=0.732 years). The Willems method showed an overestimation of the real age of boys, with a median residual error of -0.247 years and an underestimation of the real age of girls (median residual error=0.073 years). Lastly, the Demirjian method overestimated the real age of both boys and girls, with a median residual error of -0.750 years for girls and -0.611 years for boys. The Cameriere method yielded a mean prediction error of 0.407 years for girls and 0.380 years for boys. Although the accuracy of this method was better for boys than for girls, the difference between the two mean prediction errors was not statistically significant (p=0.19). The Demirjian method was found to overestimate age for both boys and girls but the mean prediction error for girls was significantly greater than that for boys (p=0.024), and was significantly less accurate than the Cameriere method (p<0.001). The Willems method was better than that of Demirjian (p=0.0032), but was significantly less accurate than that of Cameriere (p<0.001).     

The Domestic Determinants of Foreign Policy Behavior in Middle Eastern Enduring Rivals, 1948–1998

Rivalry-related issues tend to dominate the foreign policy agenda of states in enduring rivalries. Thus, the enduring rivalry research program provides an important framework for foreign policy analysis. This paper probes the domestic elements of strategic interaction in the three main Middle Eastern rivalries: Israel–Egypt, Israel–Jordan, and Israel–Syria. The empirical tests probe whether the number of parties represented in Israel's cabinet and Arab and Israeli domestic unrest impact the propensity for these rivals to employ hostility against each other. We specify vector autoregression (VAR) models and negative binomial event count models with monthly levels of hostility as the dependent variables for the period 1948–1998. The results provide interesting foreign policy implications regarding the impact of Israeli domestic political structures on conflict dynamics in the Middle East. There is no evidence that the foreign policy behavior of Arab states becomes risk averse when Israeli leaders might need an external scapegoat. These findings are discussed in the context of other research on enduring rivalries and strategic interaction.     

A Vigilante Model of Justice: Revenge,Reconciliation, Forgiveness,and Avoidance

Once a working relationship is damaged through an act of injustice, how do the victim and offender repair their relationship? What causes the victim to let go of the anger and resentment and then reconcile with the offender? We propose a theory that the likelihood of forgiveness and reconciliation is greatly enhanced, and revenge and avoidance greatly decreased, if justice is first served. That is, forgiveness follows justice; without justice, forgiveness is much less likely. Justice may be served one of three ways: (1) by the victim evening the score; (2) by the organization punishing the offender; or (3) by the offender repenting. We recommend that managers establish a procedurally just climate so that victims of offense seek distributive justice through formal channels rather than seeking it themselves through revenge.     

The Limits of Peace: Third Parties in Civil Wars in Southeast Asia, 1993–2004

At of the end of 2005, Asia had the highest number of active civil war dyads. The number of active dyads in other regions was either low or declining. Africa, in particular, experienced a sharp drop in the number of active dyads from 2001 to 2005. Civil wars in Asia also last longer than wars in other regions. With a high number of warring dyads fighting in long wars, the expectation would be that the region would be the focus of third-party conflict management, but this is not the case. In this article, we use an original data set to take a closer look at this gap in expectations by focusing on third-party efforts in Southeast Asia between 1993 and 2004. Bilateral talks were the most common form of third-party engagement, but mediation has been the most likely form to lead to agreements between warring parties. We conclude the article with a discussion of the policy implications of this research.     

The politics and economics of auction design in the market for sulfur dioxide pollution

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 aim to create a market in emissions of sulfur dioxide from power plants by distributing a fixed number of tradable pollution permits called “allowances,” and by providing for the auction of a small fraction of the total number of allowances. This article describes potential inefficiencies in this market and how an auction could enhance the market. It shows that the method by which allowances are “bundled together” for auction is an important efficiency-related element of auction design. The article also examines the politics of auction design and how equity goals strongly shaped the design ultimately adopted by Congress. Finally, some implications are suggested for the role of policy analysis in the legislative process.     

论作为科学的法学的不可或缺性——1966年4月20日在柏林法学会的演讲

本刊2004年第1期曾发表了现在德国弗莱堡大学求学的赵阳先生译的,19世纪德国著名法学家基尔希曼的《作为科学的法学的无价值性》一文。此文当时曾在德国法学界引起轩然大波,基尔希曼那句被人引用了千百次的名言,实际成了确认和否认作为科学的法学的实际价值的核心表达。德国法学界当然不乏对基尔希曼的声讨笔伐,但是似乎也没有留下什么能和基氏文章等量齐观的论辩力作。此处发表的同一译者翻译的拉伦茨的《论作为科学的法学的不可或缺性》,应是一篇直接应对基氏之文的反命题力作,不过这已经是在100多年之后了。这篇文章是在拉伦茨的一次演讲稿的基础上形成的,它本身就表明对于法学价值的认识直到现在仍然是仁者见仁,智者见智。本刊刊发此文,为的是使这个可能永远没有完结,但又永远不会影响法学存续下去的论争在此形成一个代表性的对局,以使读者从两种不同观点的对弈中领其要旨和奥秘。