‘Neutral’ experts? How input of scientific expertise matters in international environmental negotiations

This contribution analyses under what conditions expert input is most likely to be regarded by government representatives as useful and how government representatives use input provided by experts. It widens the analytical lens examining multilateral negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) between 2009 and 2011. The findings confirm the importance of deep knowledge, long-term involvement in the policy subsystem and networks. This research illustrates the importance of policy-entrepreneurial strategies such as proactively approaching government representatives and volunteering knowledge. Joining government delegations can increase expert input as they may gain access to the negotiation text. It is crucial to provide input early on in the negotiation cycle before the national negotiation position is decided. Scientific consensus on climate change facilitated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) resulted in a convergence of the actor’s beliefs towards understanding climate mitigation and adaptation as normative imperative. Actors, however, interpret expert input based on the consensual IPCC findings differently depending on their conflicting political objectives. Thus, instrumental and political use of expert input by the interest groups overlaps in the UNFCCC.     

The Female Jihad: Al Qaeda's Women

When women carry out a suicide attack they undermine the idea of who and what a terrorist is. What is generally not realized is the extent to which women are involved in terrorism. The purpose of this article is to explore and to analyze the multifaceted roles of the women in the movement of Al Qaeda. The argument is that the role of the women the world audience perceives is the one of a suicide bomber but the role of an ideological supporter and operational facilitator is more important for the maintenance of the operational capabilities and the ideological motivation for a terrorist organization. This article argues that the women follow a gender-specific interpretation of the radical ideology, the female Jihad. The concept of the female Jihad means that the women carry out a political act by supporting their male relatives, educating their children in the ideology and facilitating terrorist operations. The female Jihad is defective when the women follow the male Jihad interpretation of the Jihad by carrying out attacks. For the survival of a terrorists organization women are more important when they follow the female version of the ideology. Because the men could get arrested, die in an attack, or could get shot by the security forces, the women continue to take care about the financial issues of the organization and continue to educate the children in the “right” belief. To verify these arguments the article is divided into three parts. The first part will look at the motivation of women participation at a terrorism organization and the motivation of a terrorism organization to use women for its purposes. The second part tries to throw some light on the female suicide bombers who acted under the umbrella of the movement of Al Qaeda. In this part the female terrorist attacks will be analyzed. In the third part Sisterhoods will be explained and the concept of the female Jihad will be analyzed. The findings of this article about the involvement of women in the movement of Al Qaeda will bring us to conclusion that women do play an essential role in these organizations and groups. Following the argument that successful counterterrorism should address both the motivation and the operational capabilities of a terrorist organization there is an essential need for the national security forces to expand their capabilities to look more carefully at women.     

Verwaltungsprozessrecht

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

THE PROHIBITION OF THE PROPOSED SPRINGER-PROSIEBENSAT.1 MERGER: HOW MUCH ECONOMICS IN GERMAN MERGER CONTROL?

We review the Bundeskartellamt (Federal Cartel Office Germany)decision on the proposed merger between Springer and ProSiebenSat.1from an economic point of view. In doing so, it is not our goalto analyze whether the controversial decision by the Bundeskartellamthas been correct or flawed from a legal point of view. Instead,we analyze whether the economic reasoning in the decision documentreflects state-of-the-art economic theory on conglomerate mergers.Regarding such types of mergers, anticompetitive effects eitherdo not occur regularly or are more often than not overcompensatedby efficiency gains, so that a standard welfare perspectivedemands reluctance concerning antitrust interventions. Thisis particularly true if two-sided markets, like media markets,are involved. However, anticompetitive conglomerate mergersare not impossible, in particular in neighboring markets wherethere is some relationship between the products of the mergingcompanies. In line with the more-economic approach in Europeanmerger control, a particular thorough line of argumentation,backed with particularly convincing economic evidence, is necessaryto justify a prohibition of a conglomerate merger from an economicpoint of view. Against this background, we do not find the reasoningof the Bundeskartellamt entirely convincing and sufficientlystrong to justify a prohibition of the proposed combinationfrom an economic perspective. The reasons are that (i) the Bundeskartellamtfails to continuously consider consumer and customer welfareas the relevant standards, (ii) positive efficiency and welfareeffects of cross-media strategies are neglected, (iii) in contrast,the competition agency sometimes appears to view profitabilityof post-merger strategy options to be per se anticompetitive(efficiency offence), (iv) the incontestability of the relevantmarkets is not sufficiently substantiated, (v) inconsistenciesoccur regarding the symmetry of the TV advertising market duopolyversus the unique role of the Bild-Zeitung and (vi) the employmentof modern economic instruments appears to be underdeveloped.Thus, we conclude that the Bundeskartellamt has not embracedthe European more-economic approach in the analyzed decision.However, one can discuss whether economic effects are overcompensatedin this case by concerns about a reduction in diversity of opinionand threats to free speech. Similar to the Bundeskartellamt,we do not consider these concerns in our analysis.     

Effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity‐based treatment program for violent and sexual offenders: Results of a retrospective,quasi‐experimental study

Purpose

Relapse prevention is an important goal in correctional settings. Although there is strong evidence for the effectiveness of certain treatment programs for juvenile offenders, those for adults lack such evidence. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a risk–need–responsivity (RNR)‐based intervention.

Methods

A quasi‐experimental, observational study design and cox regression analysis were used to compare treated violent and sexual offenders (n = 171) with untreated offenders (n = 241).

Results

Both groups were observed for an average of 7.9 years. Recidivism rates of treated offenders (11.7%, n = 20) were similar to those of control offenders (15.8%, n = 38; p = .25). When controlling for confounding variables, the hazard of recidivism in the treatment group was 5.2% lower than that in the control group. Subdividing the treatment group resulted in lower hazard ratios for offenders still in therapy when released and offenders cancelling therapy. However, none of the group differences was statistically significant.

Conclusion

Our results show that control and RNR‐based treatment groups had comparable recidivism rates with a trend towards a positive treatment effect, especially for people in outpatient treatment. However, criminal history, age at the start of follow‐up, and actuarial risk of recidivism were significantly associated with recidivism. Future research needs to apply elaborate methodological approaches to detect robust treatment effects and consider different criteria of treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, the influence of prison climate, motivational factors, intervention quality, and factors supporting the success of outpatient treatment should be considered in future studies of larger offender samples.     

Verhandeln statt Argumentieren oder Verhandeln durch Argumentieren? Eine empirische Analyse auf der Basis der Sprechakttheorie

In a recent debate in German political science the terms ?bargaining and arguing“ have been construed as semantic opposites in the same dichotomous way as the terms ?strategic action and communicative action“ and ?game theory and discourse theory“. This paper rejects the notion of these dichotomies and presents a new theoretical approach to distinguish bargaining and arguing as modes of communicative resolution of conflicts. On the basis of speech act theory a method for the empirical analysis of bargaining and arguing processes is developed and demonstrated with an example of interest conflict resolution by mediation. Three conclusions can be drawn: First, in empirical processes of communicative conflict resolution, in almost all cases both arguing and bargaining will be present. Second, within the context of an interest conflict, arguing is not an alternative to bargaining, but a means for bargaining. Third, in the example in question a sequential structure could be observed: The resolution of disagreements over facts and values by arguing took place before the resolution of interest conflict by bargaining.