Eyewitness accuracy and confidence

In deciding the trustworthiness of eyewitness testimony, the U.S. judiciary employs as one of five criteria the witness' level of confidence demonstrated at the confrontation. A very recent laboratory study has shown that juror perceptions of witness confidence account for 50% of the variance in juror judgments as to witness accuracy. This strong faith in the adequacy of certainty as a predictor of accuracy is not at all supported by the present review of 43 separate assessments of the accuracy/confidence relation in eye- and earwitnesses. Statistical support is provided for the notion that the predictability of accuracy from overtly expressed confidence varies directly with the degree of optimality of information-processing conditions during encoding of the witnessed event, memory storage, and testing of the witness' memory. Low optimal conditions, those mitigating against the likelihood of highly reliable testimony, typically result in a zero correlation of confidence and accuracy. Using the arbitrary criterion of 70% or greater accuracy to define high optimal conditions, seven forensically relevant laboratory studies are identified, with six of them exhibiting significant positive correlations of confidence and accuracy. It is concluded, however, that no really clear criteria currently exist for distinguishing post hoc high from low optimal witnessing conditions in any particular real-life situation. Hence the judiciary should cease their reliance on witness confidence as an index of witness accuracy.     

Reflections Tornatzky writes first commentary for journal

Editorial Advisory Board     

Adolescent sexual activity and pregnancy: Socioenvironmental problems,physical health,and mental health

This paper examines the association between adolescent pregnancy and socioenvironmental, physical, and mental health problems in 1590 inner-city females aged 13–18 who use health clinics. Adolescents who have become pregnant, those who are sexually active but never have been pregnant, and those who are sexually inactive are compared. The sexually active youngsters come from more psychosocially disadvantaged backgrounds than their sexually inactive peers; the sexually active girls who become pregnant come from more psychosocially disadvantaged backgrounds than those who have never been pregnant. Despite this, the youths who have become pregnant do not have more current relationship problems, more stressful life events, or worse physical health than the never-pregnant sexually active youths. Although sexually inactive youths have the lowest rates of mental health problems, adolescents who have been pregnant have lower rates of anxiety and conduct disorder symptoms than those who are sexually active but never pregnant.Supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Fieldwork conducted by Survey Research Associates.Research interests include adolescents and children, parenting, and families.Research interests include epidemiology of child and adolescent psychiatric disorder.Research interests include psychiatric epidemiology/deviant behavior.Research interests include mental health and statistical issues.Research interests include health behavior and mental health issues.