CRIMES,CRIME RATES,ARRESTS, AND ARREST RATIOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR DETERRENCE THEORY*

The relationship between crimes and arrests is one of the central issues in deterrence theory. There are several conceptual difficulties in attempting to assess whether arrests deter crimes or the number of crimes determine the number of arrests. These problems are compounded when rates are used to measure both variables. The issue is whether criminals respond to arrests or the police respond to changes in crime. The present analysis compares regression results when the variables are measured both as rates and raw numbers for three offenses: homicide, robbery, and burglary. The results indicate that arrests follow crimes. This suggests the need to reexamine some studies that argue that criminals’perceptions of arrest rates are an indication of deterrence.     

Legal vs. quantified definitions of standards of proof

Law and Human Behavior - Three laboratory experiments were conducted to compare legal (unquantified) definitions of three standards of proof (“preponderance of the evidence,”...     

POLICE ADMINISTRATION: THE RESPONSE TO CHANGE*

Abstract: The organizational structure of Australian police forces is based on the quasi-military pattern established by the London Metropolitan Police Force. While community values, attitudes and aspirations remained comparatively static, this pattern seemed to both police and the public to be workable, if not completely satisfactory. However, it is becoming increasingly evident to police administrators that the traditional pattern of organization is experiencing difficulties in coping with a changing society. In America, in particular, attention has been given to attempts to replace the traditional police bureaucracy with a more flexible, participatory, science-based structure. Changes in police structures come about very slowly for a variety of reasons, including bureaucratic resistance to change. Australian Commissioners of Police are usually career appointments from within the force of practical officers who are not necessarily interested in administrative principles. Ministerial heads also are often not committed to innovative programs. In most cases, changes within Australian police forces have resulted from outside pressures, and major reforms have usually been associated with outside appointments to the post of Commissioner. A Commissioner who elects to be an innovator needs powerful backing from his minister and from within his organization, the support of influential community voices, reasonably long tenure of office and adequate financial allocations. His freedom to introduce reform is also affected by the philosophy of his police union. Available data suggest that our traditional law enforcement system is not succeeding in its prime tasks of preventing and solving crimes. Several courses of action are open to enable Australia's law enforcement agencies to be more responsive to a changing society: senior police officers should establish a national forum to enable their views to be heard, opportunities should be provided for concerned civilians to be informed about and involved in crime prevention and criminal justice, and the feasibility of copying the American system of State Criminal Justice Planning Agencies should be examined.     

Misclassification probability of dental discrimination functions for sex determination

Misclassification probability of dental discriminant functions for sexing American whites was evaluated using three verification procedures. These validation techniques involved sample resubstitution, jackknife classification, and use of a holdout sample. Resulting discriminant score distributions yielded correct classifications ranging between 65 and 81% depending upon the particular tooth combinations selected. Dental discriminant functions are applicable to forensic science cases if used with caution.     

Expert evidence. Historical perspectives

Nearly 150 years ago, a seaman received a blow on the right side in the liver region, dying a month later. As a result of fresh autopsy findings, the accused was arrested and imprisoned. However, the defense counsel obtained an exhumation order. This led to the discovery of coexisting lethal disease and culminated in full discharge by a grand jury. The various aspects of the case are examined and shown to anticipate modern principles of expert evidence.