Endogenous economic voting: evidence from the 1997 British election

Using panel surveys conducted in Great Britain before and after the 1997 general election, we examine the relationship between voting behavior and post-election economic perceptions. Drawing on psychological theories of attitude formation, we argue that those who voted for Labour and the Liberal Democrats perceived the past state of the British economy under the Tory government more negatively than they had prior to casting their ballot in the 1997 election. Similarly, we posit that Labour supporters would view the future state of the national economy under Labour more positively than they had before the election. This indicates that, contrary to many assumptions in the economic voting literature, voting behavior influences evaluations of the economy as voters seek to reduce inconsistencies between their vote choice and evaluations of the economy by bringing their attitudes in line with the vote they cast in the election. It also means that voters’ post-election economic perceptions are, at least in part, influenced by and thus endogenous to their vote choice. This finding has two major implications: first, cross-sectional models of economic voting are likely to overestimate the effect of economic perceptions on the vote. Second, the endogeneity of economic perceptions may compromise the quality of economic voting as a mechanism for democratic accountability.     

Toward public value?

Selected articles from a conference organised by the Department of Management at Monash University in November 2003 entitled ‘Toward Public Value? Management and Employement for Outcomes’.     

Gender Differences in Peer and Parental Influences: Body Image Disturbance,Self-Worth,and Psychological Functioning in Preadolescent Children

The connections between body image disturbance and psychological functioning have been well established in samples of older adolescent girls and young women. Little is known, however, about body image in younger children. In particular, little is known about possible gender differences in preadolescent children. The current study explored self-reported body image disturbance and psychological functioning in relation to peer and parental influences in 141 elementary school-aged girls and boys aged 8–11. Results suggest that girls are more concerned about dieting and are more preoccupied with their weight than are boys. Girls also reported a greater drive for thinness and a higher level of family history of eating concerns than did boys. Correlations suggested that girls' experiences of body image concerns (body dissatisfaction, bulimia, and drive for thinness) were related to a number of factors (such as family history of eating concerns, peer influences, teasing, depression, and global self-worth) whereas boys' experiences of body image concerns were related to fewer factors. On the basis of these findings, the assessment and treatment of body image concerns in preadolescent children (especially girls) are of great importance. Implications for intervention and prevention programs are discussed.     

On the (mis)measurement of legislator ideology and shirking

In this paper, we show that current statistical measures of legislator's shirking are implicitly based on the electoral concept of a unique majority rule equilibrium point in the policy space where elections are contested. We note that such equilibria do not exist generically and present statistical results showing that cross-sectional regressions where legislators' voting indices are predicted by district average demograhic and economic data are mis-specified. We also discuss a weaker equilibrium construct, the uncovered set, and present statistical evidence showing that differences in voting behavior between Senators from the same state are positively related to the heterogeneity of the electorate. We argue that current evidence alleged to show shirking by Senators is equally consistent with Senators who perfectly represent an idiosyncratic constituency that cannot be represented by district average data.     

Comprehending disclosure: must patients understand the risks they run?

It is well known that competent patients must be told about the risks of proposed medical procedures. This paper argues that recent professional guidelines and the law of negligence now take matters further by requiring doctors to take reasonable steps in an attempt to ensure that patients understand the risks they are being invited to run, so facilitating meaningful choices and the opportunity to give a properly informed consent.     

Parent–Adolescent Interaction and Optimal Experience

Thirty adolescents and their parents participated in a study of family interaction and optimal experience. Family members completed questionnaires, and discussed 7 topics for approximately 30 minutes while being videotaped. The audio portion of the tape was replayed after the discussion, with pauses after each topic segment to allow family members an opportunity to complete a modified form of the Experience Sampling Method. Family interaction was coded by independent observers, and compared to family members' experiential reports. Results showed that family communication complexity (i.e., interaction characterized jointly by integrating and differentiating responses) was associated with family members' reports of more optimal experience (i.e., feelings of interest and/or flow experience). Segment-to-segment analyses added that increases and descreases in family members' interest were associated with upward and downward changes in communication complexity, respectively. These findings, and the novel methodological approach, are discussed in terms of their relevance for studying adolescent development in the family.     

Book Reviews

Mac and Supermac

Alistair Horne, Macmillan, 1894–1956 : Volume I of the Official Biography. (London: Macmillan, 1988. £16.95. ISBN 0 333 27691)

Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500–2000 (London and Sydney, 1988)

Edward N. Luttwak, Strategy: The Logic of War and Peace (Harvard University Press, 1987)

Henry Butterfield Ryan, The Vision of Anglo‐America: The US‐UK Alliance and the Emerging Cold War, 1943–1946 (Cambridge University Press, 1987)     

Campaign spending and Senate elections, 1978–84

This paper uses a sample of recent Senate election results and estimates vote equations that show challenger spending hurts, and incumbent spending helps, incumbent re-election. While both types of spending have diminishing returns, the effects are asymmetrical. Challenger spending is more productive at lower levels of spending, but incumbents can spend greater amounts more profitably than can challengers. These results can explain why Senate incumbents spend money, why they typically outspend their challenger, and why incumbents who can outspend their challenger would tend to be against spending limits or public financing.However, the results do not explain why incumbent spending does not work in House election equations. Jacobson and others have run countless linear and quadratic specifications that persistently show perverse effects for incumbent spending. These results are not affected by the procedural problem of logging observations that have a value of zero, and pose a genuine puzzle. There are other empirical results suggesting the idea that there are basic differences in the nature of elections between the House and Senate. For example, Grier and Carlson (1988) find that state-level economic conditions have a strong effect on individual Senate elections, while Owens and Olson (1980) find that district-level economic conditions have no effect on House elections. Since I show that there are a significant number of elections where incumbent spending does matter, and that simultaneity bias may not be a tenable explanation for results where incumbent expenditures do not matter, it may be time to take a new look at the House data or to develop a testable theory that can explain persistant empirical differences in the determinants of elections in the House and Senate.     

Charter High Schools’ Effects on Long‐Term Attainment and Earnings

Since their inception in 1992, the number of charter schools has grown to more than 6,800 nationally, serving nearly three million students. Various studies have examined charter schools’ impacts on test scores, and a few have begun to examine longer‐term outcomes including graduation and college attendance. This paper is the first to estimate charter schools’ effects on earnings in adulthood, alongside effects on educational attainment. Using data from Florida, we first confirm previous research (Booker et al., 2011 ) that students attending charter high schools are more likely to graduate from high school and enroll in college. We then examine two longer‐term outcomes not previously studied in research on charter schools—college persistence and earnings. We find that students attending charter high schools are more likely to persist in college, and that in their mid‐20s they experience higher earnings.