Cross-validation of the risk matrix 2000 sexual and violent scales

The predictive accuracy of the newly developed actuarial risk measures Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual/Violence (RMS, RMV) were cross validated and compared with two risk assessment measures (SVR-20 and Static-99) in a sample of sexual (n= 85) and nonsex violent (n= 46) offenders. The sexual offense reconviction rate for the sex offender group was 18% at 10 years follow-up, compared with 2% for the violent offenders. Survival analyses revealed the violent offenders were reconvicted at twice the rate compared to sexual offenders. The RMV significantly predicted violent recidivism in the sex and combined sex/violent offender groups. Although the RMS obtained marginal accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction in the sex offender group, none of the scales significantly predicted sexual reconviction. An item analysis revealed four factors not included in the risk scales that were significantly correlated with sexual and violent reconviction. Combining these factors with Static-99, RMV, and RMS increased the accuracy in predicting sexual reconviction.     

Characterization of human control region sequences of the African American SWGDAM forensic mtDNA data set

The scientific working group on DNA analysis Methods (SWGDAM) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) population data set is used to infer the relative rarity of control region mtDNA profiles obtained from evidence samples and of profiles used for identification of missing persons. In this study, the African American haplogroup patterns in the SWGDAM data were analyzed in a phylogenetic context to determine relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and to describe haplogroup distributions for Africans observed in these data sets. Over 200 SNPs (n=217) were observed in the African American data set (n=1148). These SNPs ranged from having 1-39 changes in the phylogenetic tree, with sites 152 and 16519 being the most variable. On average there were 5.8 changes for a character on the tree. The most variable sites (with 19 or more changes each) observed included 16093, 16129, 16189, 16311, 16362, 16519, 146, 150, 152, 189, and 195. These rapidly changing sites are consistent with other published analyses. Only 34 SNPs are needed to identify all clusters containing 10 or more individuals in the African American data set. The results show that the African American SWGDAM mtDNA data set contains variation consistent with that described in continental African populations. Thirteen of the 18 haplogroups previously observed in African populations were observed and include: L1a, L1b, L1c, L2a, L2b, L2c, L3b, L3d, L3e1, L3e2, L3e3, L3e4 and L3f. Haplogroup L2a is the most commonly observed cluster (18.8%) in the African American data set. The next most common haplogroups in the African American data set include the clusters L1c (11.0%), L1b (9.1%), L3e2 (9.0%) and L3b (8.1%). Approximately 8% of the haplogroups observed within African Americans were common in European Caucasians or East Asians; these were H (n=32), J (n=4), K (n=5), T (n=2), U5 (n=6), U6 (n=9 also known from North Africa), A (n=12), B (n=7), C (n=4), and M (n=16), respectively. The European Caucasian and East Asian haplogroups are expected due to admixture between individuals with recent ancestry in Western Eurasia and sub-Saharan Africa. The genetic characterization of these relevant data sets is fully consistent with other published mtDNA genetic variation. The sequence diversity observed in this data set makes it a valuable tool for forensic applications.     

Consistency and Accuracy of Batterer Typology Identification

Researchers in the field of domestic violence have derived “typologies” to better conceptualize the differences found among batterers (e.g., Holtzworth-Monroe and Stuart [1994]. Psychol. Bull. 116: 476–497). Efforts have since been made to evaluate clinicians' accuracy in classifying batterers into subtypes (Langhinrichsen-Rohling, Huss, and Ramsey [2000]. J. Fam. Violence 15: 37–53). The present study investigated the accuracy and consistency with which experienced clinicians could sort profiles into an empirically derived MCMI-based batterer typology (Hamberger, Lohr, Bonge, and Tolin [1996] Violence Vict. 11: 277–292). Seven PhD level psychologists with experience in the field of domestic violence were asked to sort 36 MCMI profiles into three piles. Each pile was represented by each of the three prototypical cluster types described in Hamberger et al. (1996) using the Basic 8 MCMI subscales. Overall, expert raters were able to sort most profiles into the three clusters accurately. However, the expert raters had the most difficulty correctly sorting some of the “nonpathological” profiles, as 40% were placed into the antisocial cluster and (6%) were sorted into the negativistic-dependent cluster. There are a number of possible explanations for the lower accuracy in sorting the nonpathological cluster. Results suggest that psychologists with domestic violence training can accurately sort MCMI profiles of batterers into the main three subtypes derived from empirically-based typology research. Clinical implications for typology assessment are discussed.     

Cutting the Grass: A Reexamination of the Link between Marital Attachment,Delinquent Peers and Desistance from Marijuana Use

Recent work indicates that marriage contributes to desistance from crime. However, two prominent interpretations of this relationship have been offered. The first, rooted in informal control theory, suggests that the marriage effect is a direct result of social bonds that tend to accompany matrimony. The second contends that the effect is indirect and due to the impact of marriage on patterns of delinquent peer association. Using data from waves 5 and 6 of the National Youth Survey, this study re-analyzes these interpretations by examining the relationship between marital attachment, delinquent peer association and desistance from marijuana use. Although change in delinquent peer association is a powerful predictor of marijuana desistance, findings are also consistent with the control theory interpretation of the marriage effect. Implications and limitations of the current study are noted.A previous version of this paper was presented at the 2000 meeting of the American Society of Criminology in San Francisco, CA.     

We've had training, now what? Qualitative analysis of barriers to domestic violence screening and referral in a health care setting

The present study assesses barriers to identification and referral of domestic violence (DV) victims by staff at a health care institution following a 3-hr DV training program in which 752 health care providers participated. Focus groups are conducted with staff in hospital departments that serve a high volume of women. Responses to focus group questions identify system-wide and individual hospital department barriers. These barriers have implications for health care organizations trying to implement DV screening protocols through training alone to change staff behavior in diverse clinical settings. Limitations of this study and future research recommendations are also discussed.     

How Smart Is my Dummy? Time Series Tests for the Influence of Politics

Kevin Grier Department of Economics, 335 Hester Hall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 e-mail: angus{at}ou.edu Of necessity, many tests for political influence on policiesor outcomes involve the use of dummy variables. However, itis often the case that the hypothesis against which the politicaldummies are tested is the null hypothesis that the interceptis otherwise constant throughout the sample. This simple nullcan cause inference problems if there are (nonpolitical) interceptshifts in the data and the political dummies are correlatedwith these unmodeled shifts. Here we present a method for morerigorously testing the significance of political dummy variablesin single equation models estimated with time series data. Ourmethod is based on recent work on detecting multiple regimeshifts by Bai and Perron. The article illustrates the potentialproblem caused by an overly simple null hypothesis, expositsthe Bai and Perron model, gives a proposed methodology for testingthe significance of political dummy variables, and illustratesthe method with two examples.

Before the curse of statisticsfell upon mankind we lived a happy, innocent life —HilaireBelloc, On Statistics