Assessing organized crime: Provisional situation report on trafficking in contraband cigarettes

This report has a dual purpose. On one hand it aims at providing an assessment of the cigarette black market in Northwest Europe, based on a review of open source data. On the other hand, it serves to tentatively explore the possibilities for a comprehensive and meaningful assessment of the organized crime situation in this particular sector.     

The Solitary Center: the Core Executive in Central and Eastern Europe

This article discusses the coordinative capacity of Centers of Government (COGs) in several Central and Eastern Europe countries. In formal terms, COGs are at the heart of the executive process; but their contribution to coherence in executive policymaking has remained limited. This observation applies both to coordination within the executive, and between the executive and other key participants in the political process. In important respects, the "solitary centers" operate in isolation from their political and institutional environment. In part, this weakness of linkage reflects the particular features of the post-Communist political systems; in part, it can be explained by a lack of nodality, authority and policy expertise at the COG. There are good reasons to assume that, as policy systems mature, problems of linkage will decline in significance. But this outcome cannot be taken for granted. Instead, we might be witnessing the emergence of a "new administrative type" in some Central and Eastern European countries.     

Problems of assessing sibship probabilities by means of genetic analysis

Nowadays, kinship studies based only on STR analysis are a very common practice. Apart from regular paternity cases, there is a rising number of cases in which the type of sibship between two persons has to be determined. Very often the parents or further relatives are unavailable for testing, so that the probability e. g. for a half-sibship has to be calculated as a deficiency situation. 50 unrelated persons (Group 1), 50 full siblings (Group 2), and 50 half-siblings (Group 3) were genotyped using the 15 STRs comprised by the AmpFlSTR Identifiler multiplex PCR-kit to investigate the reliability of common statistics programs and the indicative value of the calculated probabilities. Using a commercially available statistics program, we calculated probabilities for the following hypotheses: 1. The persons investigated are full siblings; 2. the persons investigated are half-siblings; 3. the persons investigated are unrelated. After STR analysis, half-sibling probabilities between 0.03 %-97.56% for group 1, between 0.01%-78.46% for group 2, and between 24.28%-90.18% for group 3 were calculated. In addition, the authors present two complicated deficiency cases which could be resolved only by extensive DNA typing using X- and Y-chromosomal loci, respectively, as well as the investigation of further relatives. The results of this study suggest that typing of autosomal STRs alone is no sufficient tool for resolving cases of possible half-sibship, even if probabilities of more than 90.0% are obtained. Due to the results of our study we suggest the implementation of mandatory standards for the investigation and interpretation of complicated kinship cases.     

Possible pitfalls in motherless paternity analysis with related putative fathers

Nowadays, more and more paternity cases are carried out investigating only child and putative father, mostly for economical or private reasons. Usually, reliable results can be obtained and the putative father can be included or ruled out with a high certainty. Considerable problems might arise when a relative of the biological father is investigated as being the putative father. In this study, we investigated 164 persons from 27 families creating artificial deficiency cases using the AmpFlSTRIdentifiler kit, which amplifies 15 STRs simultaneously. We analyzed 93 child/biological father pairs and the corresponding uncles, respectively the brothers of the biological fathers. The average paternity probability for the biological father was 99.9699% (paternity index (PI): 3321.26); only in three cases the results were under 99.9%. In five out of 125 child/uncle pairs no STR mismatches were found and paternity probabilities between 99.9726% (PI 3652) and 99.9970% (PI 33,545) were calculated. The average number of excluding loci was 3.4, but in 31.2% of the cases only zero, one or two mismatches were found. When both putative fathers were genetically typed, the biological father usually had a statistically higher paternity probability. Nevertheless, the differences between probabilities for father and uncle were only small. These results show that a reliable investigation of deficiency cases (i.e. child and putative father) seems to be more difficult than generally assumed. Especially in cases with an unknown familiar background and/or when investigating foreigners for immigration purposes, the laboratory expert should include the mother, increase the number of investigated loci or include a second method such as RFLP-analysis, some serological systems or typing of X-chromosome specific STRs to further ascertain the results.     

Development of a capillary zone electrophoresis method including a factorial design and simplex optimisation for analysis of amphetamine, amphetamine analogues, cocaine, and heroin

A capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE) method was developed for the analysis of amphetamine and 13 amphetamine analogues. A full factorial design was used to screen for important design variables (i.e. carrier electrolyte concentration, pH, and separation temperature), and a modified simplex was employed in a final optimisation step. The resolution values of the target compounds were used as responses in the screening and optimisation phases. This approach made it possible to control the effects of the design variables on the separation of the target compounds. The best results were obtained using a 100mM Tris/phosphate buffer (pH 3.1) at a separation temperature of 10 degrees C, and the analysis time was 23 min under these conditions. After slight modification, the method also enabled baseline resolution of the most commonly encountered amphetamine derivatives, as well as cocaine and heroin, within 7 min. There was a linear relationship between peak area and concentration for all substances, with correlation coefficients in the range of 0.9975-0.9999. Moreover, the technique was repeatable and exhibited relative standard deviation (R.S.D.) values in the ranges of 0.01-0.11% and 0.54-1.60% for relative migration time and corrected peak area, respectively. Lastly, the method was successfully applied to analyse street samples.     

Arbeiterbewegung von rechts? Motive und Grenzen einer imaginären Revolte

The article examines populist and völkisch orientations of unionized workers, some of them active members of workers’ councils. It empirically shows how, in respondents’ everyday consciousness, protest motifs are intermingled with an ethnicized view of the social question. Völkisch populism can be interpreted as a Polanyi-type movement that is motivated by problems generated by post-growth capitalism, presenting itself as a venture to give back power to the people. Its revolt remains an imaginary one, though, for, ultimately in accordance with existing power relations, it aims at reconstructing an irretrievable past. Our empirical results keep a distance from monocausal explanations, though call to mind issues of class that have long been neglected. As workers perceive the current distribution of wealth as unjust, yet don’t believe in any possibility for change, they are spontaneously inclined to redefine existing top-down conflicts into inclusion-exclusion types. Professional right-wing populists take up and aggravate this tendency of exclusive solidarity and thereby pose a serious challenge for the unions as well as for democratic civil societies.