Few convictions in rape cases: Empirical evidence concerning some alternative explanations

This paper examines several explanations for the low rate of conviction for rape arrests made in the District of Columbia from 1971 to 1976. Discrimination against female victims does not appear to be a major cause of the problem, nor do rape victims appear more likely than victims of other serious crimes to cause case attrition due to their own unwillingness to continue. Questioning of the victim's credibility, on the other hand, does seem to be more of a reason for case dismissal for rape cases than for other serious crimes. A multivariate analysis of the types of rape cases that do result in conviction yielded eight statistically significant variables. A new perspective on rape cases emphasizing the issues of consent and credibility is presented.     

“God of vengeance and of reward?”: The economy and presidential popularity

The relationship between the economy and the political fate of incumbents is reexamined empirically by proposing seven multivariate statistical models representing major approaches found in the literature. These models are tested empirically to determine the influence of aggregate economic conditions on presidential popularity as measured by Gallup Poll data from 1950 to 1974. Analysis suggests (1) that inflation and military expenditures constitute consistently significant influences on popularity and (2) that this influence is best detected in an Almon distributed-lag model which allows for an initial political response that increases cumulatively and remains strong for several months before diminishing.The title quotation comes from V. O. Key, Jr.,Politics, Parties, and Pressure Groups (5th ed), New York: Thomas Y. Crowell, 1964, p. 568. I am indebted to Edward R. Tufte for calling it to my attention.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the meetings of the Public Choice Society in New Orleans, March 1977.     

Econometric analyses of electoral behavior: A critical review

This paper reviews the major econometric analyses of electoral behavior in the United States. After a discussion of the early works in this area, analysis focuses on the recent debate precipitated by Kramer's 1971 work. The most important econometric works are summarized so that political scientists not working in this area but still interested in understanding the economic influences on voting can become acquainted with the substantive conclusions of each work and learn something of the different variables and methodologies employed in the analysis. For scholars engaged in research in this field, the paper will serve as a useful summary of previous works. The conclusion discusses major points of controversy and suggests specific research questions toward which future work should be directed.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1978 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April 20–22, 1978.     

Economic influences on presidential popularity among key political and socioeconomic groups: A review of the evidence and some new findings

This paper analyzes presidential popularity among important political and socioeconomic groups in the United States from 1965 to 1980, making use of the Gallup Poll indicators of support for the incumbent president among the main socioeconomic, regional, generational, sexual, and racial groups, and among Democratic, Republican, and independent voters. The analysis allows fully for both economic and noneconomic influences on incumbent popularity and includes in an integrated rational model underlying partisan orientations. The conclusions suggest the strong importance of partisanship, with the public's political response to the economy depending largely on the political affiliation of the incumbent president. Beyond this, we find economic predictors generally are more important than any of the systematic political or cyclical predictors tested here, with unemployment the single most important influence on presidential popularity. For all presidents, macroeconomic conditions have greater political significance than do the government's redistributive policies designed to influence economic well-being. And with minor exceptions, the economy's political importance is equally strong for all economic classes in American society.     

Resource loss and naturalistic reduction of PTSD among inner-city women

Halting the process of psychosocial and material resource loss has been theorized as being associated with the reduction of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study examines how the limiting of resource loss is related to alleviation of PTSD symptoms among 102 inner-city women, who originally met diagnostic criteria for PTSD after experiencing interpersonal traumatic events such as child abuse, rape, and sexual assault. Participants whose PTSD symptoms improve and become nondiagnostic for PTSD are compared with those who remain diagnostic. The two groups are not significantly different at pretest. However, at the 6-month time point, those who become nondiagnostic for PTSD report less resources loss in three of four domains. This pattern suggests that as PTSD symptoms decrease, women's material and psychosocial resource loss diminishes, which in turn, may aid their recovery process.     

Uses of the NIST 26plex STR assay for human identity testing

Ongoing work at the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology has focused on the characterization of 26 autosomal STR loci for human identity testing. These 26 loci are in addition to the existing 13 U.S. core loci and those found in PowerPlex16 and Identifiler commercial STR typing kits. The amplification of the 26 loci has been optimized for degraded extracts in unique miniplex panels and also for reference samples as a single reaction 26plex assay. A study has been performed comparing genotypes obtained with the 26plex primers to those with miniplex panels for allele drop out and concordance. The forensic utility of the 26plex assay was evaluated for situations where additional loci are beneficial. The utility of this large multiplex was also tested in a case involving DNA extracted from degraded bone samples. The 26plex can serve as a low-cost assay (compared to commercially available kits) useful for both sorting comingled remains and providing additional markers for increased statistical support for samples that require “non-trio” family references for human identification.     

Refugee youth as peer leaders in a teen dating violence study

This article examines the experiences of six Karen peer leaders involved in research evaluating the effectiveness of a teen dating violence (TDV) program. Seven categories were identified: 1) the benefits of peer leadership, 2) motivation to become a peer leader, 3) concerns, 4) favorite part of the experience, 5) lessons learned about research, 6) TDV content learned, and 7) recommendations for researchers. Associated themes emerged within each category. Implications for prevention programs include providing an abbreviated version of the program to the peer leaders and engaging parents in recruitment. Future research should focus on conducting similar studies with Karen or other refugee youth in other areas of the United States.