Value orientations,life transitions,and desistance: Assessing competing perspectives

Laub and Sampson (2003) and Paternoster and Bushway (2009) offered opposing explanations of desistance from crime. Yet, extant research has failed to test the key theoretical differences that distinguish these perspectives: 1) the temporal ordering of internal changes in identity/values and life transitions and 2) the impact of values/life transitions on offending conditional on key predictors from the opposing theory (e.g., whether marriage contributes to desistance among individuals who already hold prosocial values). We assess competing claims using data from the Pathways to Desistance. We find that within-person changes in prosocial value orientations are significantly related to within-person changes in one's likelihood of entering into serious romantic relationships and becoming employed. Conversely, life transitions are unrelated to changes in one's values. The results derived from fixed-effects Poisson models indicate high or increasing prosocial value orientations help explain offending patterns among those who enter into serious romantic relationships/get employed and help explain changes in offending among those who do not experience structural “turning points.” Marriage/cohabitation is unrelated to within-person changes in offending, whereas the impact of employment has an inconsistent relationship. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.     

Useful ignorance: The benefits of uncertainty during power shifts

This paper develops a formal model exploring how declining states allocate scarce military resources across multiple commitments under uncertainty. The model reveals that under certain conditions, states might actually benefit from their own uncertainty. In the model, a declining state’s uncertainty creates incentives for a revisionist rising power to misrepresent its intentions. But importantly, this misrepresentation requires the rising state to act cooperatively, implementing policies that immediately benefit the declining state. The model reveals how declining states can exploit these incentives in order to maximize the short-term benefits of their counterpart’s cooperation. Under some conditions, the benefits of this deceptive cooperation can outweigh the long-term costs of being deceived. These dynamics do not operate when the declining state is certain of the rising state’s type. I illustrate this logic through a case study of Great Britain’s pre-WWI naval withdrawal from East Asia.     

Perceived arrest risk,psychic rewards,and offense specialization: A partial test of rational choice theory†

In prior tests of Beckerian rational choice theory, the notion that individuals are responsive to the (dis)incentives associated with crime has been supported. Much of this research has comprised composite scores of perceived rewards and risks of multiple, often disparate, crime types that are then used to predict “general” offending behavior. Although the results of such prior tests are informative, we believe that this tendency has resulted in two shortcomings. First, a central component of mathematical rational choice theory is overlooked, namely, that responsivity to incentives will be crime specific. That is, offenders should prefer crime types that subjectively offer greater rewards and fewer risks relative to other crimes. Second, individual differences in offending specialization are not addressed, of which Clarke and Cornish (1985) and Shover (1996) argued rational choice theories are well suited to explain. Using a sample of serious offenders, we find that in a given time period, individuals are more likely to engage in crime types they viewed as more intrinsically rewarding and less risky compared with other crimes. Furthermore, individuals displayed greater specialization in violence to the extent they view violence as more rewarding and less risky than property offenses     

Pop Goes IR? Researching the Popular Culture–World Politics Continuum

In this article we offer a potential research agenda for the study of popular culture in IR and outline how this research agenda could be advanced. If the incorporation of popular culture into IR is going to be fruitful, there must be a willingness to go beyond an engagement with illustrations of world politics. Doing so will get us closer to what is at stake in the mutual implication of popular culture and world politics.     

Interpreting perimortem blast trauma from skeletal remains: Complications and considerations

Blast trauma results from highly variable events that can lead to similar effects in the skeleton. Clinical literature, which largely focuses on soft tissue, provides limited efficacy for interpreting fully skeletonized cases. Interpretation of skeletal blast trauma is hampered by the low number of fully skeletonized case studies and experimental replication studies, which mainly use nonhuman proxies. The purpose of this study is to discuss fracture patterns on two individuals from WWII as a means to better understand and identify fracture patterns associated with blast trauma. Existing clinical and anthropological criteria are reviewed and applied to two World War II cases, both presumed to exhibit blast trauma based on historical contexts. These case studies exhibit combinations of complicated and extensive signs of blunt-force and projectile trauma, reflecting the diversity of skeletal trauma resulting from blast-related events. This analysis emphasizes the arguably impossible task of establishing a diagnosis based on the available literature and lack of prior knowledge about specific losses. Ultimately, analysts must consider the totality of skeletal trauma, combining biomechanical theory and relevant clinical and anthropological literature to arrive at useful yet defensible assessments of trauma. However, refined criteria and additional studies are needed to assess complicated trauma from blast-related events in anthropological contexts.     

全球性剥削型人口贩运发案率的评估策略研究

评估性剥削人口贩运在全球的发案数是一项艰巨的任务,由于缺乏统一的措施以及可行的研究方法,关于人口贩运的实证研究非常缺乏,而了解性剥削的人口贩运活动对制定有效的反制措施具有至关重要的作用。根据针对目前已查明的人口贩运案件的深入挖掘和利用受害者收集的一手数据,本文试图提出基于外推法的评估全球性剥削人口贩运的发案数的可行策略。     

Mitochondrial DNA identification of game and harvested freshwater fish species

The use of DNA in forensics has grown rapidly for human applications along with the concomitant development of bioinformatics and demographic databases to help fully realize the potential of this molecular information. Similar techniques are also used routinely in many wildlife cases, such as species identification in food products, poaching and the illegal trade of endangered species. The use of molecular techniques in forensic cases related to wildlife and the development of associated databases has, however, mainly focused on large mammals with the exception of a few high-profile species. There is a need to develop similar databases for aquatic species for fisheries enforcement, given the large number of exploited and endangered fish species, the intensity of exploitation, and challenges in identifying species and their derived products. We sequenced a 500bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene from representative individuals from 26 harvested fish taxa from Ontario, Canada, focusing on species that support major commercial and recreational fisheries. Ontario provides a unique model system for the development of a fish species database, as the province contains an evolutionarily diverse array of freshwater fish families representing more than one third of all freshwater fish in Canada. Inter- and intraspecific sequence comparisons using phylogenetic analysis and a BLAST search algorithm provided rigorous statistical metrics for species identification. This methodology and these data will aid in fisheries enforcement, providing a tool to easily and accurately identify fish species in enforcement investigations that would have otherwise been difficult or impossible to pursue.