Atherosclerotic and Hypertensive Cardiovascular Disease are Associated with Death at Sublethal Carboxyhemoglobin Levels: A Postmortem Study

Residential fires are a significant cause for morbidity and mortality in the United States. Death is often the result of soot and smoke inhalation causing carbon monoxide (CO) toxicity. The approximate lethal level of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) in healthy adults has been well described. However, a significant number of medical examiner cases involve infirmed decedents, often elderly, with complex cardiovascular disease burdens. It is well known that death in these cases will occur at sublethal levels of COHb; however, increased lethality has been largely documented via anecdotal experience and lacks quantification. Fifty-five cases were identified where death resulted from smoke and soot inhalation suffered in a residential fire. The control group, with no cardiovascular disease, had an age-adjusted mean COHb level of 61.6% at the time of death. Presence of hypertensive cardiovascular disease showed a 30% reduction in COHb (age-adjusted mean 43.2%), atherosclerotic disease showed a 33% reduction (age-adjusted mean 41.5%), and combined disease presentation accounted for 41% reduction (age-adjusted mean 36.3%). When controlling for age, atherosclerotic and hypertensive cardiovascular diseases were each associated with statistically significant decreases in COHb (p < 0.01). Increasing age was associated with decreased COHb levels at 2.8% per 10 years of life (p < 0.01), even when modeled with hypertensive and atherosclerotic disease. These findings carry important public health significance, as well as practical significance for the medical examiner when interpreting COHb levels in cases of suspected deaths due to smoke and soot inhalation.     

Party Structure,Information, and Coalition Durability: The Relevance of NATO in the Global War on Terror

Using the test cases of Afghanistan and Iraq, this study illustrates how alliances work to mitigate the conflicting frames that party structure and media access provide in the Global War on Terror, which leads to more cohesiveness in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)–led coalition in Afghanistan as opposed to the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq. The approach utilized here extends the theory on alliance capability and uncertainty by arguing that alliances reduce uncertainty among member states on a strategic objective. This is particularly relevant when examining asymmetric, limited conflicts, where party structures and media access can work to disseminate conflicting frames to a domestic populace, who then can pressure their leader to withdraw from a coalition. The implications of these findings lend support to the continued relevance of NATO in the twenty-first-century security arena.     

Conspiracy Endorsement as Motivated Reasoning: The Moderating Roles of Political Knowledge and Trust

Given the potential political and social significance of conspiracy beliefs, a substantial and growing body of work examines the individual‐level correlates of belief in conspiracy theories and general conspiratorial predispositions. However, although we know much about the psychological antecedents of conspiracy endorsement, we know less about the individual‐level political causes of these prevalent and consequential beliefs. Our work draws from the extant literature to posit that endorsement of conspiracy theories is a motivated process that serves both ideological and psychological needs. In doing so, we develop a theory that identifies a particular type of person—one who is both highly knowledgeable about politics and lacking in trust—who is most susceptible to ideologically motivated conspiracy endorsement. Further, we demonstrate that the moderators of belief in conspiracy theories are strikingly different for conservatives and liberals.     

Measuring Socio-economic Status in the Millennium Villages: The Role of Asset Index Choice

How are poverty analyses and poverty traps assessments affected by the choice among conventional methods of asset index construction? To address this question, this article uses panel data from four sites in the Millennium Villages Project (MVP) in Malawi, Tanzania, Mali and Ghana to study the relationship between eight asset indices and the sensitivity of findings related to poverty rates, poverty transitions and poverty traps to the index used. We find that although estimations of poverty rates and transitions are largely consistent across indices, evidence of poverty traps can be conditional on which asset index is used. The asset indices studied include structural income, principal components, factor analysis and a reduced set of assets reflecting the portfolio assessed in the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) data.     

Is Putin’s popularity real?

Vladimir Putin has managed to achieve strikingly high public approval ratings throughout his time as president and prime minister of Russia. But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters? We conducted a series of list experiments in early 2015 to estimate support for Putin while allowing respondents to maintain ambiguity about whether they personally do so. Our estimates suggest support for Putin of approximately 80%, which is within 10 percentage points of that implied by direct questioning. We find little evidence that these estimates are positively biased due to the presence of floor effects. In contrast, our analysis of placebo experiments suggests that there may be a small negative bias due to artificial deflation. We conclude that Putin’s approval ratings largely reflect the attitudes of Russian citizens.     

Incentivizing Responses to Self-report Questions in Perceptual Deterrence Studies: An Investigation of the Validity of Deterrence Theory Using Bayesian Truth Serum

Objective

Criminological researchers want people to reveal considerable private information when utilizing self-report surveys, such as involvement in crime, subjective attitudes and expectations, and probability judgments. Some of this private information is easily accessible for subjects and all that is required is for individuals to be honest, while other information requires mental effort and cognitive reflection. Though researchers generally provide little or no incentive to be honest and thoughtful, it is generally assumed that subjects do provide honest and accurate information. We assess the accuracy of deterrence measures by employing a scoring rule known as the Bayesian truth serum (BTS)—that incentivizes honesty and thoughtfulness among respondents.

Method

Individuals are asked to report on self-report offending and estimates of risk after being assigned to one of two conditions: (1) a group where there is a financial incentive just for participation, and (2) a BTS financial incentive group where individuals are incentivized to be honest and thoughtful.

Results

We find evidence that there are some important differences in the responses to self-reporting offending items and estimates of the probability of getting arrested between the groups. Individuals in the BTS condition report a greater willingness to offend and lower estimates of perceived risk for drinking and driving and cheating on exams. Moreover, we find that the negative correlation between perceived risk and willingness to offend that is often observed in scenario-based deterrence research does not emerge in conditions where respondents are incentivized to be accurate and thoughtful in their survey responses.

Conclusion

The results raise some questions about the accuracy of survey responses in perceptual deterrence studies, and challenge the statistical relationship between perceived risk and offending behavior. We suggest further exploration within criminology of both BTS and other scoring rules and greater scrutiny of the validity of criminological data.     

The Death Penalty: A Multi-level Analysis of Public Opinion

Considerable research has examined public opinion of the death penalty using simplistic questions such as, “Do you favor or oppose the death penalty.” Simply categorizing people into favoring or opposing capital punishment does little to address the array of factors and circumstances that are part of every murder. We examine variables concerning the nature of homicides from a set of 40 murder vignettes used to gauge respondents’ level of support for capital punishment in murder cases. The data are structured such that vignette responses are nested within individuals, meaning a multi-level analysis is appropriate. We used HLM to explore how vignette-level or homicide related characteristics influence support for the death penalty, as well as how individual-level characteristics condition these factors. Analyses revealed that individual-level variables were non-significant when analyzed independently; however, cross-level interactions indicated significant individual-level influences on homicide-level characteristics as they relate to respondents’ support for the death penalty.     

You have the right to understand: The deleterious effect of stress on suspects' ability to comprehend Miranda

Miranda v. Arizona (384 U.S. 436, 1966) required that suspects be explicitly warned of the right to avoid self-incrimination and the right to legal representation. This research was designed to examine whether stress, induced via an accusation of wrong-doing, undermined or enhanced suspects' ability to comprehend their Miranda rights. Participants were randomly assigned to either be accused (n = 15) or not accused (n = 15) of having cheated on an experimental task in a two-cell between-subjects experimental design. Results supported the hypothesis that stress undermines suspects' ability to comprehend their Miranda rights. Participants who were accused of cheating exhibited significantly lower levels of Miranda comprehension than participants who were not accused of cheating. The theoretical processes responsible for these effects and the implications of the findings for police interrogation are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

THE YOUTH CRIMINAL JUSTICE ACT

In April 2003, the face of Canada's youth criminal justice system changed considerably. The Young Offenders Act (YOA) was repealed and the substitute legislation, the principle-laden Youth Criminal Justice Act (YCJA), came into effect. It is not an entirely new act but was designed to build on the strengths of the YOA and address its weaknesses. The biggest criticism of the YOA was its lack of clear legislative direction; through the numerous principles and additional provisions, the YCJA proposes a remedy. The focus of this article is on two areas of the Act in particular, extrajudicial measures and sentencing, as these areas experienced the most change in the process of reforming the legislation. Specifically, these sections of the Act are analyzed in relation to four of the perceived problems under the YOA, all of which tie into the lack of clear legislative direction. If the provisions contained in these segments of the YCJA are adhered to in the manner and sentiment intended and if the principles are made a priority, then 1) the rate of youth incarceration in Canada should decrease, 2) the courts should no longer be overused, 3) there should be proper distinction between various degrees of seriousness of crimes, and 4) there should be more consistency in youth sentences across the country.