Event Dependence and Heterogeneity in Duration Models: The Conditional Frailty Model

Suzanna De Boef and Kyle A. Joyce Department of Political Science, 219 Pond Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 e-mail: sdeboef{at}psu.edu e-mail: kjoyce{at}psu.edu e-mail: jboxstef+{at}osu.edu (corresponding author) We introduce the conditional frailty model, an event historymodel that separates and accounts for both event dependenceand heterogeneity in repeated events processes. Event dependenceand heterogeneity create within-subject correlation in eventtimes thereby violating the assumptions of standard event historymodels. Simulations show the advantage of the conditional frailtymodel. Specifically they demonstrate the model's ability todisentangle the sources of within-subject correlation as wellas the gains in both efficiency and bias of the model when comparedto the widely used alternatives, which often produce conflictingconclusions. Two substantive political science problems illustratethe usefulness and interpretation of the model: state policyadoption and terrorist attacks. Authors' note: Three anonymous reviewers gave valuable advice.Replication materials and an online appendix are available onthe Political Analysis Web site. Any errors are our own responsibility.     

Revisiting the relationship between age,employment, and recidivism

Employment theoretically serves as a source of informal social control that can promote desistance from crime (Sampson & Laub, 1993). Findings from studies assessing the effects of employment, however, have been mixed. In a seminal study, Uggen (2000) reanalyzed data from the National Supported Work (NSW) Demonstration Project and found that employment significantly reduced the rate of recidivism among individuals aged 27 and older but had no impact on younger individuals. We reproduce and replicate Uggen's (2000) findings with data from four distinct employment programs: The National Supported Work Program (1975–1979), the Transitional Aid Research Project (1976–1977), the Employment Services for Ex-Offenders (1981–1984), and the Enhanced Services for the Hard-to-Employ Center for Employment Opportunities (2004–2008). We closely reproduced Uggen's original findings in the NSW but found evidence that the statistically significant interaction between age and employment in the NSW was only present at the year 3 follow-up and the observed effect is highly sensitive to minor threats to internal validity. Furthermore, a significant age–employment interaction was not observed in the three other data sources. These findings should encourage scholars to continue to investigate the age-graded nature of employment and crime, especially through a sociohistorical lens.     

SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND SOCIAL POLICY: BRIDGING THE GAP1

Clinical examples of misapplications of social science research are reviewed with an emphasis on what can be learned with regard to dealing with and preventing such misuse of this type of knowledge. The differences in language and culture that characterize scientific research as separate from advocacy and social policy are also examined, with recommendations for improved cross‐cultural communication.     

The Grassroots Are Greener: Democratic Participation and Environmental Policies in State Politics

American environmental legislation cannot be fully explained under traditional interest‐group theory, which emphasizes the success of well‐financed, organized interests. One alternative explanation holds that the American public accepts a new environmental ethos that is protective of the natural world and human health. This study examines 100 years of state‐level ballot questions on environmental policy and empirically establishes the emergence and persistence of this new environmental ethos as well as the changing nature of American support for environmental policy. This ethos emerges in 40 years, environmental policy making of this type has been increasingly citizen‐led, inclusive of a wider variety of environmental problems, while embracing a greater range of policy solutions including those premised on more radical notions of humanity?s relationship with the natural world.     

Storm and stress beliefs about adolescence: Prevalence,self-reported antecedents,and effects of an undergraduate course

The purpose of the present study was to determine the prevalence and self-reported developmental antecedents of beliefs in storm and stress notions about adolescence, and to investigate the effects on such beliefs of an undergraduate course on adolescent development. Subjects were 192 college students who were enrolled in a course entitled Psychology of Adolescence at a large urban university. The questionnaire, which was administered at the beginning and end of the course, contained a storm and stress scale, items tapping the nature of parent-adolescent arguments, Dusek and Flaherty's (1981) Self-Concept Scale, and several demographic questions. Results suggested that beliefs in storm and stress notions are quite prevalent, arguments between parents and adolescents are believed to occur quite frequently, and females endorse storm and stress beliefs more readily than do males. Moreover, subjects tended to endorse storm and stress notions more readily if they viewed themselves as being less adjusted during their own adolescence and if they reported more adjustment instability. After a course on adolescent development, the tendency to report that the typical adolescent experiences storm and stress decreased, and this decrease was more pronounced for those receiving higher grades in the course.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the First Biennial Meeting of the Society for Research on Adolescence, Madison, Wisconsin, March, 1986.Received his Ph.D. in Clinical Psychology from Virginia Commonwealth University. Interests are family relations during adolescence, pediatric psychology, child clinical psychology, and statistical applications in psychology.Received his Ph.D. in Clinical Psychology from Harvard University. Interests are the social psychology of adolescence and psychosocial adaptation to biological change.     

Temporal discounting: the differential effect of proximal and distal consequences on confession decisions

Drawing on the psychological principle that proximal consequences influence behavior more strongly than distal consequences, the authors tested the hypothesis that criminal suspects exhibit a short-sightedness during police interrogation that increases their risk for confession. Consistent with this hypothesis, Experiment 1 showed that participants (N = 81) altered how frequently they admitted to criminal and unethical behaviors during an interview to avoid a proximal consequence even though doing so increased their risk of incurring a distal consequence. Experiment 2 (N = 143) yielded the same pattern, but with a procedure that reversed the order of the proximal and distal consequences, thereby ruling out the possibility that it was the unique characteristics of the consequences rather than their proximity that influenced the admission rate. The authors discuss the supported psychological process as a potential explanation for several well-established findings reported in the literature on confessions.     

Social and economic impact of the commercialization of the Argus II artificial retina in the United States

Each year, the United States invests about $45 billion in research conducted by federal researchers within federal laboratories. These efforts generate extensive social benefits when results are transferred to the private sector. It is important that we effectively quantify the economic and societal impact of federal technology transfer activities to inform taxpayers and policymakers about the value of public investments in this form of research. The Argus II device, an artificial retina commercialized in the United States by Second Sight in 2013, provides a rich example of how private sector innovation can be enhanced by research collaborations with federal labs and academia. Over the 25-year journey from idea to product, Second Sight carried out research and development collaborations with six Department of Energy national laboratories and seven universities. The case of Argus II also offers valuable insight into (1) how private industry, academia, and government can work together to bring socially beneficial innovations to fruition and (2) the tradeoffs inherent in these public–private collaborations. In this paper, we use a Markov model to estimate the realized and potential future social benefits associated with Argus II. We provide an interactive tool that can be used to replicate our findings and modify assumptions using updated patient information as it becomes available. We also provide insight into the aspects of federal involvement surrounding the development of Argus II that contributed to its successful commercialization and discuss other spillover benefits from these public–private collaborations.     

Self-Esteem Enhancing Reasons for Having Sex and The Sexual Behaviors of African American Adolescents

A sample of 146 African American adolescents living in impoverished neighborhoods with high HIV rates participated in the Chicago HIV Prevention and Adolescent Mental Health Project (CHAMP), a longitudinal study of adolescent HIV risk exposure. The current study examined self-reported reasons why African American adolescents may participate in risky sexual behavior. Adolescents completed a questionnaire regarding their sexual behaviors and reasons for having sex at Wave 3 of data collection. Findings from the study revealed that females used condoms less consistently while males had more sexual partners and sexually debuted earlier. Regression analyses also indicated that males were more likely to endorse self-esteem enhancing reasons for having sex and those who did also reported a higher number of sexual partners. Males were more likely to endorse power-related reasons for having sex and those who did tended to sexually debut earlier. Across both genders, results suggested that those adolescents who endorsed more self-esteem enhancing reasons for having sex were less likely to use condoms consistently. Implications for prevention programs and future research are discussed. Doctoral candidate in the Clinical Psychology Program at Loyola University Chicago. She received her Master of Arts from Loyola University Chicago in Clinical Psychology. Her research interests are in HIV/AIDS prevention in African American communities, particularly amongst adolescent girls. Professor of Clinical Psychology and Director of Clinical Training at Loyola University. He received his Ph.D. in Clinical Psychology from Virginia Commonwealth University. His interests lie in family relations during early and late adolescence, developmental psychopathology, the interface between developmental psychology and clinical child psychology, pediatric psychology (e.g., adolescents with physical disabilities), statistical applications in psychology, and research design. Associate Professor of Psychology in Psychiatry at the University of Illinois at Chicago. She received her Ph.D. in Child Psychology from the University of Minnesota at Minneapolis Her research interests lie in normative developmental processes during the transition to adolescence.     

Menarcheal status and parent-child relations in families of seventh-grade girls

The associations between menarcheal status and several child-rearing and outcome variables were examined for mother-daughter and father-daughter dyads. All variables were assessed with questionnaires as an extension of earlier observational studies. Analyses were conducted via multiple regression analyses wherein menarcheal status was treated as a continuous variable and was entered into the regression equation as a set of power polynomial terms. The results indicated that most of the significant relations occurred for the mother-daughter dyad, and most of these relations were curvilinear. When menarche occurs at or around the modal time, changes in parent-child relations may be best thought of as temporary perturbations, but when menarche occurs early the effects may persist.The research reported here was funded by Father Flanagan's Boys Home, Inc., and by a grant to the senior author from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Family Relations in Early Adolescence.Received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology from Harvard University.Received his M.S. from Virginia Commonwealth University.Received her M.S. in counseling psychology from Virginia Commonwealth University.Received his M.S. from the University of Nebraska.She received her Ph.D. in developmental psychology from the Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Cornell University.