SELF-INTEREST,EQUITY, AND CRIME CONTROL: A GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSIS OF CRIMINAL DECISION MAKING

Employing the analytic technique of game theory, we attempt to answer questions about how individuals with different proclivities to use crime to accomplish ends, and different beliefs about society's fairness, are likely to respond to different incentives and disincentives that are derived from strain and neoclassical deterrence theories. Our analysis indicates that the crime control policies typically recommended by adherents of both theories are often logically invalid, given the premises upon which they are supposedly based. For example, our analysis suggests why punishment strategies like “three strikes and you're out” and “entitlement strategies” such as welfare and other short-term redistributive payment programs fail to deter crime. Finally, after including notions of equity with traditional rational choice assumptions, our analysis identifies a mix of theoretically derived strategies that may more effectively deter crime.     

IMMIGRATION AND THE RECENT VIOLENT CRIME DROP IN THE UNITED STATES: A POOLED,CROSS‐SECTIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS OF METROPOLITAN AREAS*

A good deal of research in recent years has revisited the relationship between immigration and violent crime. Various scholars have suggested that, contrary to the claims of the classic Chicago School, large immigrant populations might be associated with lower rather than higher rates of criminal violence. A limitation of the research in this area is that it has been based largely on cross‐sectional analyses for a restricted range of geographic areas. Using time‐series techniques and annual data for metropolitan areas over the 1994–2004 period, we assess the impact of changes in immigration on changes in violent crime rates. The findings of multivariate analyses indicate that violent crime rates tended to decrease as metropolitan areas experienced gains in their concentration of immigrants. This inverse relationship is especially robust for the offense of robbery. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that the broad reductions in violent crime during recent years are partially attributable to increases in immigration.     

POVERTY,INFANT MORTALITY,AND HOMICIDE RATES IN CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE: ASSESSMENTS OF CRITERION AND CONSTRUCT VALIDITY*

This article assesses the extent to which the infant mortality rate might be treated as a “proxy” for poverty in research on cross-national variation in homicide rates. We have assembled a pooled, cross-sectional time-series data set for 16 advanced nations from the 1993–2000 period that includes standard measures of infant mortality and homicide and contains information on the following commonly used “income-based” poverty measures: a measure intended to reflect “absolute” deprivation and a measure intended to reflect “relative” deprivation. With these data, we assess the criterion validity of the infant mortality rate with reference to the two income-based poverty measures. Also, we estimate the effects of the various indicators of disadvantage on homicide rates in regression models, thereby assessing construct validity. The results reveal that the infant mortality rate is correlated more strongly with “relative poverty” than with “absolute poverty,” although much unexplained variance remains. In the regression models shown here, the measure of infant mortality and the relative poverty measure yield significant positive effects on homicide rates, whereas the absolute poverty measure does not exhibit any significant effects. The results of our analyses suggest that it would be premature to dismiss relative deprivation in cross-national research on homicide, and that disadvantage is conceptualized and measured best as a multidimensional construct.     

FORCED MIGRATION, LAND-USE CHANGE AND POLITICAL ECONOMY IN THE FOREST REGION OF GUINEA

This paper examines the impact of forced migration on land usechange in Yomou prefecture in the forest region of Guinea froma broadly ‘political economy’ perspective. Focusingon the period since 1989, when over 500,000 refugees from Liberiaand Sierra Leone have been present in the region, it considersthe extent and mechanisms through which refugees have gainedaccess to land in three study villages, and seeks explanationsfor the pattern of land use change that has occurred. This isseen as reflecting both the evolution of the agricultural economyof the region, and socio-political change in local communities.Implications for both environmental change, and the livelihoodsof refugees and local communities are considered.     

Religion and Politics in Western and Islamic Political Thought: A Clash of Epistemologies?

Early Christianity viewed religion and politics as largely separate; early Islam viewed them as largely concurrent. But from the eighth to the eleventh centuries each modified their original position, so that they almost converged. However, they subsequently diverged again. This was because, in the West, political thought became secularised following the eleventh-century papal reform movement and then the Protestant Reformation. Muslim thinkers, on the other hand, beginning with al-Mawardi (974–1058), sought to restore the subsumption of politics into religion, notably during the sixteenth-century Shi'ite revolution in Iran. While today the West views religion and politics as largely separate categories, Muslims see them as necessarily intertwined; attempts to separate them have so far largely failed. Hence Muslim political thought is based primarily on revelation (interpreted in various ways), while Western political thought is based on philosophy.     

Research Note: On the inverse relationship between votes and proximity for niche parties

Abstract.  Do niche parties occupying left-right policy positions that diverge sharply from the centre of the voter distribution gain more popular support than those moderately positioned along the left-right continuum? Cross-sectional analyses, based on observations from twelve Western European countries from 1984–1998, are presented that suggest the answer is 'yes'. By contrast, these analyses strongly suggest that for mainstream parties, policy radicalism depresses popular support. The implication of these findings is that for niche parties, it is the distinctiveness of their left-right positions that enhances their competitiveness in democratic elections. While this finding runs counter to the intuition of standard spatial theory, it is consistent with recent dynamic accounts of niche party responsiveness to shifts in public opinion and electoral support for niche parties. These findings have implications for party strategies, spatial theories and the understanding of political representation.     

Legal Aim, Discretion, and Social Control

This study attempts to ascertain how the legal a i m of rehabilitation are applied, as well as their social control consequences for a group of offenders sentenced under the Federal Youth Corrections Act (FYCA) of 1950. Discriminant function analyses were conducted on a random sample of 452 persons selected f o r a "special" FYCA rehabilitative disposition and 758 persons accorded a regular punitive disposition, to determine 1) the factors that influence the judge's choice between these two outcomes; and 2) if persons sentenced under the special rehabilitative provision spend more or less time incarcerated, relative to those given a regular disposition Our analyses indicate that age is the single discriminator of much significance in determining whether an offender is given a FYCA or regular disposition, with younger persons more likely to receive rehabilitative treatment. Little support was found for the contention that greater intrusiveness of social control inevitably results from adoption of a rehabilitative form of social control as opposed to a regular punitive disposition. The implications of these findings for the application and consequences of the FYCA are discussed.