Learning more from social experiments: evolving analytic approaches

Book Review

Learning more from social experiments: evolving analytic approaches     

AN EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK FOR STUDYING DESISTANCE AS A PROCESS*

Recent reviews of the desistance literature have advocated studying desistance as a process, yet current empirical methods continue to measure desistance as a discrete state. In this paper, we propose a framework for empirical research that recognizes desistance as a developmental process. This approach focuses on changes in the offending rate rather than on offending itself. We describe a statistical model to implement this approach and provide an empirical example. We conclude with several suggestions for future research endeavors that arise from our conceptualization of desistance.     

Unravelling Equality: The Impact of the United Kingdom's Spending Cuts on Women

This article examines a report on the likely impact of the spending cuts on women. The report, Unravelling Equality: A Human Rights and Equality Impact Assessment of the Spending Cuts on Women in Coventry, concludes that the public spending cuts will increase inequality between women and men. For some women the cuts may have serious negative effects on their human rights. The article argues that this report provides a blueprint for the kind of analysis which should be carried out all over the country to ensure that the impact of spending cuts on women is better understood and acted upon.     

The (Mis)Uses of Detention and the Impact of Bed Space in One Jurisdiction

Analysis of booking data prior to and following the opening of a new facility doubling available bed space reveals that 53.0% of detentions end prior to or at a detention hearing, charges for 48.8% of bookings are for technical violations of probation or status offenses only, and that 62.5% of bookings are for a combination of the prior two offense and other minor offenses. These trends as well as the actual number of youths detained increased with the move into a new facility with twice the bed space. The data suggest that detention is frequently used as shelter and/or punishment even though a juvenile does not technically represent a threat to self, community, or of absconding.     

How ‘Local’ are the Liberal Democrats? Recent Evidence from Electoral Performance and Campaigning

In order to reclaim a credible place in the British two‐party system, the Liberal Democrats have done much to establish their community credentials. Successfully contesting seats in local elections may offer the best opportunities for a party to exploit limited resources and nurture its grass‐roots support. As a result, the party has been able to build up a reputation for optimising the so‐called snowball effect. This article focuses on two aspects of the Liberal Democrats’ local nature. The first is electoral trends since 1997—in terms of gaining and maintaining council control—and the extent to which this may have acted as a springboard for success in Westminster elections. The second reflects upon the content of campaigning in the 2005 general election. To what extent did the Liberal Democrats prioritise local issues in constituency leaflets? It concludes that the importance of locality to a party like the Liberal Democrats can present a double‐edged sword.     

A MULTILEVEL TEST OF RACIAL THREAT THEORY

We develop a conceptual model articulating the mechanisms by which racial threat is theorized to affect social control, focusing specifically on the influence of the relative size of the black population on the likelihood that the police will arrest a black citizen suspected of a violent criminal offense. A multilevel analysis of 145, 255 violent crimes reported to police in 182 cities during 2000 shows only qualified support for racial threat theory. Controlling for the amount of race-specific crime reported to police, our findings reveal that black citizens actually have a lower probability of arrest in cities with a relatively large black population. This finding tends to cast doubt on the validity of the racial threat hypothesis. No evidence buttresses the claim that economic competition between whites and blacks affects arrest probabilities. However, results show that in cities where racial segregation is more pronounced blacks have a reduced risk sof being arrested relative to whites. Crimes involving black offenders and white victims are also more apt to result in an arrest in cities that are racially segregated. These findings support the view that racial segregation is an informal mechanism to circumscribe the threat of potentially volatile subordinate populations.     

Neutralization and Tax Evasion: How Effective Would a Moral Appeal Be in Improving Compliance to Tax Laws?

The failure of individuals to pay their taxes in full is a serious budgetary problem for the federal government. Existing research (Schwartz and Orleans, 1967; Grasmick and Scott, 1982) suggests that efforts to increase the guilt feelings experienced for tax evasion might improve compliance. However, neutralization theory (Sykes and Matza, 1957) predicts that guilt feelings can be reduced by neutralization strategies which justify guilt-producing behavior, compromising the inhibiting effect of guilt feelings. Our research shows that through the use of neutralization strategies which justify tax evasion the inhibiting effect of guilt feelings is sharply reduced. The implications of this finding for tax compliance programs based on appeals to the moral obligation of paying taxes are discussed.