Explaining variation in the competitiveness of U.S. Senate elections, 1922–2004

We develop and test predictions about the factors determining the competitiveness of elections to the U.S. Senate. To do so, we deliberately abstract away from candidate-specific conditions that have often been used to study political competitiveness in order to focus on basic structural features of the electoral landscape. In our framework, party-specific constraints on the ideological positioning of local candidates, linked to the national party organization and its contributors, interact with the heterogeneity of state electorates to determine the number of highly competitive Senate contests. Three hypotheses emerge from this model: (1) the greater the diversity of a party’s national legislative delegation, the more highly competitive Senate elections we will observe; (2) states in which the ideological heterogeneity of the electorate is relatively high will exhibit a greater number of highly competitive elections; and (3) highly competitive Senate contests will be more common in states with closed primaries than in states with open primaries. We provide strong evidence in support of the first two hypotheses and some evidence in support of the third.     

Do Voters Respond to Party Manifestos or to a Wider Information Environment? An Analysis of Mass‐Elite Linkages on European Integration

Recent studies analyze how citizens update their perceptions of parties’ left‐right positions in response to new political information. We extend this research to consider the issue of European integration, and we report theoretical and empirical analyses that citizens do not update their perceptions of parties’ positions in response to election manifestos, but that citizens’ perceptions of parties’ positions do track political experts’ perceptions of these positions, and, moreover, that it is party supporters who disproportionately perceive their preferred party's policy shifts. Given that experts plausibly consider a wide range of information, these findings imply that citizens weigh the wider informational environment when assessing parties’ positions. We also present evidence that citizens’ perceptions of party position shifts matter, in that they drive partisan sorting in the mass public.     

Using Spatial,Temporal and Evidence‐status Data to Improve Ballistic Imaging Performance

Firearms identification imaging systems help solve crimes by comparing newly acquired images of cartridge casings or bullets to a database of images obtained from past crime scenes. We formulate an optimization problem that bases its matching decisions not only on the similarity between pairs of images, but also on the time and spatial location of each new acquisition and each database entry. The objective is to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the false positive rate. We use data on all cartridge casings matches detected in Israel during 2006–2008 to estimate most of the model parameters. We estimate matching accuracy from two different studies and predict that the optimal use of extraneous information would increase the detection probability from 0.931 to 0.987 and from 0.707 to 0.844, respectively. These improvements are achieved by favoring pairs of images that are closer together in space and time.     

Burnt Bridges: Retreat of the Federal Judiciary from Land Use Litigation

The decision by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in Petaluma, despite its obvious and substantial reliance on the requirements of standing to sue, tempts the commentator to leap to a discussion of the merits. After the District Court's decision, many of us watched the case closely, either hoping or fearing that it would become the tock to the tick of Golden v. Planning Board of Town of Ramapo,¹ establishing some limitations to the license of communities to define themselves and their growth at the expense of excluded nonresidents. The unanimous opinion by the Ninth Circuit panel bristles with hostility to the right-to-travel rationale of the District Court and invites comment on this level.     

The fate of governing parties in times of economic crisis

The severity of the recent economic crisis in Europe provides an opportunity to test some of the conventional hypotheses about the effects of economic adversity on election outcomes in a broadly comparative context. In 16 of 27 elections held in EU member countries between 2008 and the end of 2011, incumbent governments went down to defeat. In many of the cases in which a governing party was defeated, a government of the center-left was replaced by one of the center-right. The average level of decline in the share of the vote for governing parties (−8.1%) however was surprisingly modest in comparison with previous election cycles. Nevertheless, the results were devastating for governing parties in a number of instances, such as Ireland or Hungary. We also consider the relative merits of retrospective and prospective interpretations of these outcomes in the light of contextual effects arising from factors such as globalization and institutional clarity as these affect perceptions of the responsibility of governing parties or coalitions in coping with the crisis in the domestic political environment.     

Performing the economy,performing science: from neoclassical to supply chain models in the agrifood sector

Abstract

Callon and Hilgartner, respectively, have argued that the economy and technoscience are performed and that neoclassical economics (NE) and scientific reports should be interpreted as performances. Building on that theme, it is argued here that the ongoing transformations collectively known as globalization signal a new way of thinking about and performing both economics and technoscience: supply chain management (SCM). A comparison of SCM with NE models reveals shifts in both the theoretical focus of its proponents and the reactions of critics. Recent developments in the agrifood sector are used to illustrate the argument.     

The prostitute

Migrant domestic workers rarely take part in — let alone organize — public protests in the countries where they work. Public protests are virtually unheard of among migrant domestic workers in Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia, and especially in the Middle East and the Gulf States. Over the past decade and a half, however, migrant domestic workers in Hong Kong — mostly Filipinas and Indonesian women — have become highly active, organizing and participating in political protests. Hong Kong's migrant domestic workers protest in a place where they are guest workers and temporary migrants, denied the opportunity of becoming legal citizens or permanent residents. Increasingly, these workers, their grassroots activist organizations, and the nongovernmental organizations with which they are affiliated frame their concerns in terms of global, transnational, and human rights, not merely local migrant worker rights. This article takes the “Consulate Hopping Protest and Hall of Shame Awards” event — part of the anti-World Trade Organization protests in Hong Kong in 2005 — as an ethnographic example of domestic worker protest and as an entrée through which to ask what it is about Hong Kong and about the position of women migrant workers — whose mobility and voice is both a product and a symptom of globalization — that literally permits public protests and shapes their form and content. The article illustrates how migrant workers’ protests and activism have been shaped by domestic worker subjectivities, by the dynamics of inter-ethnic worker affiliations, and by the sociohistorical context of Hong Kong as a post-colonial “global city” and a “neoliberal space of exception.”