互联网普及程度对非正规就业的影响分析

研究基于 2002-2016 年的全国省级面板数据,使用固定效应模型检验了互联网普及程度对非正 规就业的影响,发现互联网普及程度对非正规就业比例有显著的负向影响,互联网的普及提高了社会整体的就 业质量。进一步使用滞后一期互联网普及程度作为工具变量,两阶归结果表明上述结论仍然成立。此外,为了 排除《劳动合同法》对研究结论的影响,本研究使用《劳动合同法》实施以前的样本进行检验,发现互联网普 及程度对非正规就业比例的负向影响仍然显著。     

人工智能对北京市就业的影响及应对

随着人工智能的快速发展,北京市劳动力市场已经出现就业的结构性变化,使人工智能与北京 市劳动力市场结构的关系由单向影响,被动适应到双向互动,主动适应,最终到动态匹配的理想状态,这将对 促进北京市经济社会的高质量发展具有战略性意义。因此,应系统化构建产业、人才、就业创业、社会保障、 教育培训、区域联动相互协调的政策体系,从产业发展、劳动力市场结构调整、心理疏导、区域联动四条路径 着手,在解决北京市就业结构问题,降低劳动者就业转换成本,提高劳动力就业能力基础上,实现政府科学管 理和劳动力市场平稳过渡的双重目标。除政府的提前应对外,还应充分发挥市场的自组织自适应自调节机制, 厘清政府与市场调节作用的边界。     

全面二孩政策与中国劳动力供给

人口是构成劳动力的基础,生育政策调整下生育水平变动引发人口规模与结构变动,从而对劳 动力市场尤其是劳动力供给产生重要影响。本研究在对我国计划生育政策的调整和演变、劳动力供给的状况与 趋势进行分析的基础上,进一步从宏观视角探讨全面二孩政策与我国劳动力供给的关系。总体来看,全面二孩 政策对政策实施后前十五年女性劳动力的劳动参与率影响十分有限,而从长远来看,对我国未来的劳动力规模 有一定的补充。另外,产业结构升级和技术发展背景下我国未来劳动力需求主要是质量和结构而非规模。因此, 进一步减弱了生育政策调整对劳动力市场的影响后果。     

外来人口自雇创业的城镇医疗保障效应 —— 基于广州外来人口的实证分析

随着城市外来人口的不断增加,自雇创业成为外来人口重要的就业形式,而关于自雇与受雇两种就业形式的比较研究也越来越为重要。基于2015年全国流动人口动态监测调查广州数据,本文采用倾向得分匹配中的卡尺匹配,在消除自雇者样本选择性偏差问题的基础上,比较研究了外来人口受雇就业与自雇创业者间的城镇医疗保障差异。结果表明,在其他条件相同的情况下,外来人口自雇创业者在城镇医疗保障参与度方面明显低于受雇者,自雇就业形式对于外来人口的城镇医疗保障具有负向效应。     

城市人才竞争与用人环境改善研究

人才竞争的背后,是各地经济发展的竞争,也是经济质量提升和产业结构转型升级的必然现象。为了吸引更多更优秀的人才到本地就业,各地出台了诸多优惠政策,主要集中在户籍政策、薪酬待遇、就业创业补贴、住房保障、职称评定等多个方面。应该清醒地认识到,吸引人才不能仅靠某些优惠政策就一劳永逸。随着人力资源素质的不断提高,劳动者的职业价值观正在发生重大的变化。在当前人才争夺战日趋激烈的时期,更好地打造以实现人才自我价值为中心的用人环境,是各地政府急需面对和解决的一件大事,引进人更要学会用好人,避免陷入重"引进"轻"使用"的陷阱,才能真正做到"人尽其才",经济社会实现稳定发展才能获得持久的动力。     

结构现实主义外交政策理论的构建与拓展——兼论对理解中国外交政策的启示

基于当下外交政策研究领域所呈现出的理论有效供给不足的局面,国际关系理论界围绕外交政策能否建立简约系统的理论以及结构现实主义外交政策理论是否可行展开了争论。本文对既有争论进行了回顾和梳理,剖析了结构现实主义外交政策理论的必要性与可行性。在此基础上,深入评估了进攻性现实主义、防御性现实主义与新古典现实主义等现实主义理论分支在外交政策理论探索中的进展与不足。同时,本文对结构现实主义外交政策理论的拓展进行了尝试,试图开拓出更加纯粹、有力的理论发展路径,完善结构现实主义外交政策理论的解释力。最后,运用结构现实主义外交政策理论剖析了中国外交存在的规律性现象,并剖析了其在未来外交政策构建中可能得到的体现与拓展。     

Forms of Civil War Violence and Their Consequences for Future Public Health

Previous research concerning the relationship between conflict and public health finds that countries emerging from war face greater challenges in ensuring the well-being of their populations in comparison with states that have enjoyed political stability. This study seeks to extend this insight by considering how different civil war conflict strategies influence post-conflict public health. Drawing a distinction between deaths attributable to battle and those fatalities resulting from genocide/politicide, we find that the magnitude of genocide/politicide proves the more effective and consistent predictor of future rates of disability and death in the aftermath of civil war. The implications of this research are twofold. First, it lends support to an emerging literature suggesting that important distinctions exist between the forms of violence occurring during civil war. Second, of particular interest to policymakers, it identifies post-civil war states that have experienced the highest rates of genocide/politicide as the countries most in need of assistance in the aftermath of conflict.     

Changing the Rules: A Speech Act Analysis of the End of the Cold War

Constructivists often refer to the end of the Cold War to illustrate their contention that social rules are not immutable. Agents can change the rules by performing actions that undermine them. In this article, we describe the Cold War as a set of social rules sustained by superpower speech acts. We show that, by altering their behavior, the superpowers undermined the felicity of these rules. In so doing, they progressively dismantled the rules of the Cold War. Our model captures the competing arguments in the ongoing debate about whether the rationalist buildup argument or the constructivist new thinking argument better explains the end of the Cold War. Within the model, we identify the rules that, when made infelicitous by the superpowers, resolves tensions in the Cold War rule system in ways consistent with each argument. We conclude by showing how these competing arguments are reflected in contemporary debates concerning the nature of the global security rules emerging in the post-cold-war world.     

Transnational Terror and Human Rights

Do terrorist attacks by transnational groups lead governments to restrict human rights? Conventional wisdom holds that governments restrict rights to forestall additional attacks, to more effectively pursue suspected terrorists, and as an excuse to suppress their political opponents. But the logic connecting terrorist attacks to subsequent repression and the empirical research that addresses this issue suffer from important flaws. We analyze pooled data on the human rights behavior of governments from 1981 to 2003. Our key independent variable of interest is transnational terrorist attacks, and the analysis also controls for factors that existing studies have found influence respect for human rights. Repeated terrorist attacks lead governments to engage in more extrajudicial killings and disappearances, but have no discernable influence on government use of torture and of political imprisonment or on empowerment rights such as freedom of speech, assembly, and religion. This finding has important implications for how we think about the effects of terrorism and the policy responses of states, non-governmental organizations, and international institutions interested in protecting human rights.     

WarViews: Visualizing and Animating Geographic Data on Civil War

In the recent years, the field of conflict research has produced new findings on the relation between conflict and geography. In doing so, new data sets have been created with the help of GIS software. These data sets include variables relevant for the study of conflict with a spatial component. However, the use of geographic data requires specialized software and substantial training and therefore involves high entry costs for researchers and practitioners. This paper introduces the WarViews project whose aim is to create an easy-to-use front end for the exploration of GIS data on conflict. It takes advantage of the recent proliferation of Internet-based geographic software and makes geographic data on conflict available for these tools. With WarViews, geographic data on conflict can be accessed, browsed, and time-animated in a few mouse clicks, using only standard software. As a result, a wider audience can take advantage of the valuable data contained in these databases, for example, as supplementary data for conflict case studies or for classroom demonstrations. We present two versions of WarViews. The static version runs in a web browser and allows the user to switch between different data sets. The dynamic version is based on Google Earth and can time-animate geographic data such that the development over time can be monitored. The WarViews website can be freely accessed at http://www.icr.ethz.ch/research/warviews .