Change and Continuity after the Arab Uprising: The Consequences of State Formation in Arab North African States

This article provides a comparative macro-level overview of political development in Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. It examines their evolution from the colonial period through several distinct phases, showing how differences in their origins were followed over time by a certain convergence towards a common post-populist form of authoritarianism, albeit still distinguished according to monarchic and republican legitimacy principles. On this basis, it assesses how past state formation trajectories made the republics more vulnerable to the Arab uprising but also what differences they make for the prospects of post-uprising democratisation. While in Morocco the monarch's legitimacy allows it to continue divide-and-rule politics, in Egypt the army's historic central role in politics has been restored, while in Tunisia the trade union movement has facilitated a greater democratic transition.     

Conclusion: agency,context and emergent post-uprising regimes

This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects.     

EARLY NEUTRAL EVALUATION IN DIVORCE CASES

Parties in a divorce case are faced with the challenge of dealing with highly charged emotional and financial issues simulataneously. Early Neutral Evaluation is a beneficial weapon in the dispute resolution arsenal that can help decrease the level of conflict between parties. This Note discusses the development of Early Neutral Evaluation as a form of dispute resolution and proposes the establishment of court-organized mandatory Early Neutral Evaluation programs to settle financial matters in a divorce case.     

Missing Data Problems in Criminological Research: Two Case Studies

This paper considers the problem of missing data in two circumstances commonly confronted by criminologists. In the first circumstance, there is missing data due to subject attrition—some cases drop out of a study. In this context, analysts are frequently interested in examining the association between an independent variable measured at time t(x _t ) and an outcome variable that is measured at time t + 1(y _t + 1); the problem is that the outcome variable is only observed for those cases which do not drop out of the study. In the second circumstance there is missing data on an independent variable of interest for typical reasons (i.e., the respondent did not wish to answer a question or could not be located). In this case, researchers are interested in estimating the association between the independent variable with missing data and an outcome variable that is fully observed. Criminologists often handle these two missing data problems by conducting analyses on the subsample of observations with complete data. In this paper, we explore this problem with two case studies and we then illustrate the use of methods that directly address the uncertainty produced by missing data.     

The historical roots and development of criminological statistics

The history of the development of criminological statistics must examine the emergence of social statistics in general. The theoretical concerns and technical questions raised by early criminologists cannot be isolated from the wider concerns of sociologists and statisticians at work in other fields. This article traces the history and problems of crime and justice statistics through the distinct periods: a “preparatory” phase (1650–1800),and a “conceptualization” phase (1800–1914). In addition, while specifically noting a dependent relationship with the fields of demography and statistics, the separation of criminological statistics as an automous area is considered. The use of criminal justice statistics for comparative and other purposes has come under considerable review and criticism during recent years, and an examination of historical sources and problems serves to increase the understanding and usefulness of these statistics today.