It’s the economy, and then some: modeling the presidential vote with state panel data

Using data for the 50 US states for presidential elections from 1972 to 2004 two theories for determining state voting outcomes are considered jointly: the ‘economy matters’ and ‘home grown-ness’ theories. Fixed-effects regressions show that measures of the ‘economy matters’ (real income, unemployment and a proxy for inflation) have the predicted effects on state voting patterns for presidential elections. The home grown theory receives mixed support. There is weak evidence that incumbent-party candidates garner greater support in their home states. There is strong support, however, for the proposition that incumbent-party candidates fare worse in the home state of rival-party candidates.     

Strength in Numbers or Quality over Quantity? Examining the Importance of Criterion Measure Selection to Define Validity Groups in Performance Validity Test (PVT) Research

Mirroring clinical guidelines, recent Performance Validity Test (PVT) research emphasizes using ≥ 2 criterion PVTs to optimally identify validity groups when validating/cross-validating PVTs; however, even with multiple measures, the effect of which specific PVTs are used as criterion measures remains incompletely explored. This study investigated the accuracy of varying two-PVT combinations for establishing validity status and how adding a third PVT or applying more liberal failure cut-scores affects overall false-positive (FP)/-negative (FN) rates. Clinically referred veterans (N = 114; 30% clinically identified as invalid) completing a six-PVT protocol as during their evaluation were included. Concordance rates were calculated across all possible two-and three-PVT combinations at conservative and liberal cutoffs. Two-PVT combinations classified 72–91% of valid (0–4% FPs) and 17–74% of invalid (0–40% FNs) cases, and three-PVT combinations classified 67–86% of valid (0–6% FPs) and 57–97% of invalid (0–24% FNs) at conservative cutoffs. Liberal cutoffs classified 53–86% of valid (0–15% FPs) and 39–82% of invalid (0–30% FNs) cases for two-PVT combinations and 46–75% of valid (3–27% FPs) and 60–97% of invalid (0–17% FNs) cases for three-PVT combinations. Irrespective of whether a two-or three-PVT combination or conservative/liberal cutoffs were used, many valid and invalid cases failed only one PVT (3–68%).Two-PVT combinations produced high FNs and were less accurate than three-PVTs for detecting invalid cases, though variable accuracy was found within both types of combinations based on the specific PVTs in the combination. Thus, both PVT quantity and quality are important for accurate validity classification in research studies to ensure reliability and replicability of findings. Applying more liberal cutoffs yielded increased sensitivity, but with generally higher FPs yielding problematic specificity, particularly for three-PVT combinations.     

Official minority‐language education policy outside Quebec: The impact of Section 23 of the Charter and judicial decisions

Abstract: This article argues that Section 23 of the Charter, litigation and judicial decisions have played key roles in expanding and homogenizing official minority‐lanpage education (omle ) policy outside Quebec. The importance of looking beyond Charter jurisprudence to the broader policy impact of litigation and judicial decisions is revealed. The Supreme Court'sMahé decision was particularly important in putting omle policy on the agenda and for providing Francophone groups with important legal, political and symbolic resources that were effectively exploited to generate policy change. Sommaire: Ce texte soutient que les litiges et la jurisprudence déoulant de l'article 23 de la Charte ont joué un rôle essentiel dam l'élargissement et l'uniformisation de la politique relative à l'enseignement dans la langue de la minorité en dehors du Quebec. Il révèle l'importance de voir au‐delè de la Charte quelles ont été les répercussions des litiges et de la jurisprudence sur la politique dans son ensemble. La dkision rendue par la Cour suprême dans l'affaire Mahé a été particulierement importante en mettant à l'ordre du jour la politique de l'enseignement dans la langue de la minorité et en offrant aux groupes francophones d'importantes ressources juridiques, politiques et symboliques dont ils ont effedivement su tirer parti pour engendrer une modification de la politique.