Economic voting in Britain, 1857–1914

Despite limited government control over the pre-1914 economy, opposition politicians were enthusiastic in blaming bad economic news on the incumbent. In a study of 458 by-elections between 1857 and 1914, we find that voters typically gave new governments a 'honeymoon' but thereafter held them responsible for high unemployment and high prices. Each 1% rise in the price level, on average, brought about a 0.21% swing against the government of the day, while each one-point rise in the percentage unemployed had double this effect. However, when we split the electorate into borough and county constituencies, economic voting appears to be confined to the former.     

Evidencing Impact from Art Research: Analysis of Impact Case Studies from the REF 2014

This article considers how the impact of art research can be evidenced, particularly the impact for general audiences through exhibitions or similar public events. This article uses thematic analysis to identify and then structure the types of evidence used in sixty-three selected impact case studies from the Research Excellence Framework 2014. The article then analyzes how the types of evidence are used and identifies opportunities to strengthen the evidence of impact. The focus is on the impact for the general public.     

How to Make a Terrorist Out of Nothing

R v G concerns the controversial offence of collecting or recording information likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism. We comment on a number of deficiencies in that judgment and investigate the proper approach that ought to be taken to that offence under the Human Rights Act 1998.     

Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability: a comparison across three levels of security

In mainstream offender samples, several risk assessments have been evaluated for predictive validity. This study extends this work to male offenders with intellectual disabilities. Participants from high-, medium-, and low-security settings, as well as community settings, were compared on a range of risk assessments. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, HCR-20-Historical Scale, the Risk Matrix 2000-C (combined risk), and the Emotional Problems Scales-Internalising discriminated between groups, with participants from high security having higher scores than those in medium security, who had higher scores than those in the community. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, all HCR-20 scales, the Short Dynamic Risk Scale, and the Emotional Problems Scales (Internalising and Externalising) showed significant areas under the curve for the prediction of violence. The Static-99 showed a significant area under the curve for the prediction of sexual incidents. The discussion reviews the value of these various scales to intellectual disability services.     

The EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership: From bilateral to multilateral forums and the strategic value for South Africa

ABSTRACT

Strategic partnerships are seen as a means of elevating bilateral relations between two countries, or in the case of the European Union (EU), relations between an intergovernmental organisation and its 10 identified strategic partners. There is a growing body of analysis on the value of these strategic partnerships for the two partner states, yet just what role this partnership has within wider multilateral forums is an area for further discussion. This article explores the role that the EU–South Africa Strategic Partnership plays in shaping engagement between the bilateral partners in multilateral contexts. In reviewing the partnership over the course of its first decade, the article argues that South Africa has increasingly acknowledged its potential value. However, further interrogation on how to manage the complex intersection between bilateral and multilateral relations is called for if the strategic partnership is to be used to optimal effect as a tool of foreign policy.     

The impact of minority government on the senior civil servant

Abstract. This paper explores the effects that minority government has upon the work of the senior civil servant. Most of the material is drawn from the Canadian federal scene but the conclusions are believed to be applicable to most political systems based on the principle of responsible government. The paper is concerned with the position of scrupulously non-partisan officials whose duties require them to offer policy advice or to manage sizable organizations. Generalization about minority governments is difficult because many different scenarios are possible. However, where the government perceives itself as relatively secure, the official life of a senior civil servant is likely to be more or less normal. Where the government is a doomed minority, the official is likely to face a number of pressures and uncertainties. The intermediate minority scenario is of the greatest interest. At such times an official's policy proposals are especially likely to be judged in a tactical context rather than on their intrinsic merit. Because of delays in the decision-making or legislative processes, he may be required to operate a program without benefit of a policy decision. The budgeting of necessary but humdrum items becomes a special problem. Uncertainty affects the whole policy and administrative area in which he works. There is little ground for the belief that the bureaucrats are necessarily stronger when the political regime is weaker, but certainly their life is more harried than in more normal times. Sommaire. Le présent article étudie l'influence que l'avènement d'un gouvernement minoritaire peut avoir sur la tâche des fonctionnaires supérieurs. A cette fin, nous nous sommes inspirés de la scène fédérale canadienne mais nous croyons que nos conclusions peuvent s'appliquer à tout système politique régi par le principe de la responsabilité ministèrielle. L'article étudie k situation de fonctionnaires scrupuleusement non partisans qui doivent, de par leurs functions, donner des conseils quant aux politiques àétablir ou qui doivent diriger de grandes organisations. II est difficile de généraliser à propos du gouvernement minoritaire puisque différentes situations peuvent se présenter. Bien sûr, lorsqu'un gouvernement se sent relativement sûr, la vie professionnelle du fonctionnaire supérieur se déroulera vraisemblablement de façon normale. Lorsqu'un gouvernement est minoritaire et vouéà la défaite, le fonctionnaire devra subir de nombreuses pressions et affronter de multiples incertitudes. La situation d'un gouvernement minoritaire se situant entre ces deux extrêmesest des plus intéressantes. Dans un tel cas, les mesures que proposera le fonctionnaire ont de fortes chances d'être évaluées sur un plan tactique plutôt que d'etre jugées au mérite. Par suite de retards apportés au processus de prise de décision ou au processus législatif, le fonctionnaire peut être obligé de mettre en application un programme sans bénéficier d'une décision de principe. La budgétisation d'articles nécessaires mais banaux devient un problème particulier. L'incertitude se répercute sur tout le secteur placé sous sa responsabilité. Il est difficile d'infirmer la croyance voulant que les bureaucrates soient nécessairement plus puissants lorsque le régime politique est plus faible, mais il est sûr qu'on leur fait la vie plus difficile qu'en temps normal.